Nottingham Forest 2-3 Fulham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fulham at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nottingham Forest vs Fulham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 8 as Nottingham Forest welcome Fulham to The City Ground. Kick-off is set for Friday 16 September 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Nottingham Forest have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Nottingham Forest have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Nottingham Forest's form when playing at home: 7W 0D 3L across 10 games at The City Ground this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The City Ground. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Nottingham Forest are significantly better at The City Ground than their overall form suggests.
Fulham — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Fulham have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fulham's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Nottingham Forest) versus 1.20 (Fulham). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Nottingham Forest, 1 for Fulham and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2022, ended 1–0 with Nottingham Forest winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Nottingham Forest trading profile (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Fulham trading profile (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; they lead at the break 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nottingham Forest 44% versus Fulham 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nottingham Forest 42% | Fulham 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nottingham Forest 1.14 xG and Fulham 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nottingham Forest attack 0.701 / defence 1.287 | Fulham attack 0.779 / defence 0.987. League average goals — home 1.644 / away 1.174. Nottingham Forest's attack strength of 0.701 is below the league average — the 1.14 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 6 Nottingham Forest games / 6 Fulham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nottingham Forest 33% | Draw 32% | Fulham 35%. Fair-value odds: Nottingham Forest 3.03 | Draw 3.12 | Fulham 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fulham as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fulham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.31 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nottingham Forest 40% | Fulham 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nottingham Forest vs Fulham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: The City Ground • Kick-off: Friday 16 Sep 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nottingham Forest 33% | Draw 32% | Fulham 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 49% | xG Nottingham Forest 1.14 / Fulham 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Nottingham Forest attack 0.701 / def 1.287 | Fulham attack 0.779 / def 0.987 | league avg home 1.644 / away 1.174 • Poisson stance: Fulham (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Nottingham Forest xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Fulham xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nottingham Forest vs Fulham kick off?
Nottingham Forest vs Fulham kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 16 September 2022 at The City Ground.
What was the final score in Nottingham Forest vs Fulham?
Nottingham Forest 2 - 3 Fulham.
Where is Nottingham Forest vs Fulham being played?
The match is being played at The City Ground.
What competition is Nottingham Forest vs Fulham part of?
Nottingham Forest vs Fulham is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Nottingham Forest vs Fulham?
Our statistical model gives Nottingham Forest a 33% chance of winning, Fulham a 35% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nottingham Forest vs Fulham?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Nottingham Forest and Fulham will score (BTTS).
Will Nottingham Forest vs Fulham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nottingham Forest and Fulham?
Record (2 meetings): Nottingham Forest 1W | Draws 0 | Fulham 1W.
What form are Nottingham Forest and Fulham in?
Nottingham Forest (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Fulham (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Nottingham Forest's attack rating (0.70) and Fulham's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Fulham's attack versus Nottingham Forest's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 0-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
33%
3.02
32%
3.14
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Nottingham Forest xG
Total xG
2.31
1.18
Fulham xG
3.02
33%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
10%
9.80
11%
8.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 11.6 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.2 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.5 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nottingham Forest vs Fulham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Nottingham Forest and Fulham expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Nottingham Forest and 1.18 for Fulham, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Nottingham Forest vs Fulham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Nottingham Forest's recent record stands at 26W 12D 14L from 52 games, a 1.73 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Nottingham Forest, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Fulham, meanwhile, have gone 29W 11D 12L across 52 games — 1.88 PPG, with D-W-L-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Fulham, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nottingham Forest on 1.73 PPG, Fulham on 1.88. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Nottingham Forest have managed 14W 4D 7L from 25 games — 1.84 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fulham's away record stands at 12W 6D 7L across 25 trips, a 1.68 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Nottingham Forest are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Fulham are on 2.21 scored and 1.00 conceded. Fulham's attacking output running into Nottingham Forest's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Nottingham Forest have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nottingham Forest
Early Season
Fulham
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nottingham Forest and Fulham in coming into this match?
Nottingham Forest have gone 26W 12D 14L in their last 52 games (1.73 PPG), while Fulham have gone 29W 11D 12L in their last 52 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nottingham Forest at home or Fulham away?
Nottingham Forest's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nottingham Forest at home: 1.84 PPG; Fulham away: 1.68 PPG.
Have Nottingham Forest or Fulham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nottingham Forest have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Fulham in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Championship, Premier League all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Dec 2023, when Fulham won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nottingham Forest's record when hosting Fulham specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Nottingham Forest
1
Draws
7
Fulham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nottingham Forest and Fulham?
From 10 meetings on record, Nottingham Forest have won 2, Fulham have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nottingham Forest and Fulham last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Nottingham Forest 0-0 Fulham.
Who has won more matches between Nottingham Forest and Fulham?
Fulham have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nottingham Forest are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nottingham Forest 44%, Fulham 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Nottingham Forest) and 48% (Fulham).
On the defensive side: Nottingham Forest keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Fulham in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nottingham Forest home games / Fulham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nottingham Forest play Fulham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Nottingham Forest's recent matches and 52% of Fulham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nottingham Forest vs Fulham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Nottingham Forest's recent games and 48% of Fulham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nottingham Forest and Fulham tend to score early?
Nottingham Forest have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Fulham in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fulham edge out Nottingham Forest 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fulham beat Nottingham Forest 2-3 at The City Ground, Regular Season - 8, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nottingham Forest 1.14 xG and Fulham 1.18 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Nottingham Forest beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Fulham outscored their 1.18 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nottingham Forest attack 0.70 / defence 1.29 against Fulham attack 0.78 / defence 0.99, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nottingham Forest 33% | Draw 32% | Fulham 35%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 35%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nottingham Forest 42%, Fulham 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nottingham Forest's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Fulham's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nottingham Forest 1.73 PPG, Fulham 1.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fulham win broke the near-deadlock. Nottingham Forest (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fulham (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.88 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.