Nottingham Forest 0-0 Fulham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fulham at 35% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nottingham Forest vs Fulham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 30 as Nottingham Forest welcome Fulham to City Ground. Kick-off is set for Sunday 15 March 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Nottingham Forest have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Nottingham Forest's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at City Ground this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Fulham — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Fulham's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Nottingham Forest) versus 1.30 (Fulham). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The previous 9 encounters between these sides heavily favour Fulham, who boast 7 victories compared to 2 for Nottingham Forest.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Dec 2025, ended 0–1 with Fulham winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Fulham have won 7 of 9 previous encounters, and at 2.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Nottingham Forest trading profile (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Fulham trading profile (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nottingham Forest 45% versus Fulham 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nottingham Forest 51% | Fulham 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nottingham Forest 1.16 xG and Fulham 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nottingham Forest attack 0.725 / defence 0.927 | Fulham attack 0.997 / defence 1.153. League average goals — home 1.386 / away 1.275. Nottingham Forest's attack strength of 0.725 is below the league average — the 1.16 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 67 Nottingham Forest games / 67 Fulham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nottingham Forest 34% | Draw 31% | Fulham 35%. Fair-value odds: Nottingham Forest 2.94 | Draw 3.23 | Fulham 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fulham as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fulham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.34 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Nottingham Forest 40% | Fulham 60%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nottingham Forest vs Fulham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: City Ground • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Mar 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nottingham Forest 34% | Draw 31% | Fulham 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 49% | xG Nottingham Forest 1.16 / Fulham 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Nottingham Forest attack 0.725 / def 0.927 | Fulham attack 0.997 / def 1.153 | league avg home 1.386 / away 1.275 • Poisson stance: Fulham (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Nottingham Forest xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Fulham xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nottingham Forest vs Fulham kick off?
Nottingham Forest vs Fulham kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 15 March 2026 at City Ground.
What was the final score in Nottingham Forest vs Fulham?
Nottingham Forest 0 - 0 Fulham.
Where is Nottingham Forest vs Fulham being played?
The match is being played at City Ground.
What competition is Nottingham Forest vs Fulham part of?
Nottingham Forest vs Fulham is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Nottingham Forest vs Fulham?
Our statistical model gives Nottingham Forest a 34% chance of winning, Fulham a 35% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nottingham Forest vs Fulham?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Nottingham Forest and Fulham will score (BTTS).
Will Nottingham Forest vs Fulham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nottingham Forest and Fulham?
Record (9 meetings): Nottingham Forest 2W | Draws 0 | Fulham 7W.
What form are Nottingham Forest and Fulham in?
Nottingham Forest (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Fulham (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Nottingham Forest's attack rating (0.72) and Fulham's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Fulham's attack versus Nottingham Forest's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 0-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
34%
2.96
31%
3.19
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Nottingham Forest xG
Total xG
2.34
1.18
Fulham xG
2.96
34%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
10%
9.61
11%
9.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 11.4 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.2 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.6 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nottingham Forest vs Fulham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Nottingham Forest and Fulham expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Nottingham Forest and 1.18 for Fulham, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Nottingham Forest vs Fulham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Nottingham Forest's recent record stands at 26W 15D 26L from 67 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-D in the last five.
Fulham, meanwhile, have gone 27W 13D 27L across 67 games — 1.40 PPG, with L-L-W-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nottingham Forest on 1.39 PPG, Fulham on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Nottingham Forest have managed 12W 9D 12L from 33 games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fulham's away record stands at 12W 6D 15L across 33 trips, a 1.27 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Nottingham Forest are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Fulham are on 1.40 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fulham in 67%.
Last 67 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nottingham Forest
Current Season
Fulham
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nottingham Forest and Fulham in coming into this match?
Nottingham Forest have gone 26W 15D 26L in their last 67 games (1.39 PPG), while Fulham have gone 27W 13D 27L in their last 67 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nottingham Forest at home or Fulham away?
Nottingham Forest's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nottingham Forest at home: 1.36 PPG; Fulham away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Championship, Premier League all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Dec 2023, when Fulham won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nottingham Forest's record when hosting Fulham specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Nottingham Forest
1
Draws
7
Fulham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nottingham Forest and Fulham?
From 10 meetings on record, Nottingham Forest have won 2, Fulham have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nottingham Forest and Fulham last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Nottingham Forest 0-0 Fulham.
Who has won more matches between Nottingham Forest and Fulham?
Fulham have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nottingham Forest see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nottingham Forest 36%, Fulham 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Nottingham Forest) and 54% (Fulham).
On the defensive side: Nottingham Forest keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Nottingham Forest have failed to score in 39% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nottingham Forest home games / Fulham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nottingham Forest play Fulham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Nottingham Forest's recent matches and 67% of Fulham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nottingham Forest vs Fulham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Nottingham Forest's recent games and 54% of Fulham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nottingham Forest and Fulham tend to score early?
Nottingham Forest have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Fulham in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Nottingham Forest's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nottingham Forest and Fulham finished level at 0-0 at City Ground, Regular Season - 30, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nottingham Forest 1.16 xG and Fulham 1.18 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Nottingham Forest fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Fulham landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nottingham Forest attack 0.72 / defence 0.93 against Fulham attack 1.00 / defence 1.15, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nottingham Forest 34% | Draw 31% | Fulham 35%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nottingham Forest 51%, Fulham 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nottingham Forest's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Fulham's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nottingham Forest 1.39 PPG, Fulham 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Nottingham Forest (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Fulham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.