Liverpool 1-1 Tottenham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Liverpool at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Liverpool vs Tottenham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 36 sees Tottenham travel to Anfield to take on Liverpool. The game is scheduled for Saturday 7 May 2022, 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Liverpool have gone 9W 1D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.80 PPG return. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Liverpool's form when playing at home: 10W 0D 0L across 10 games at Anfield this term (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Anfield. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Tottenham — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Tottenham have posted 6W 1D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Liverpool carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.80 vs 2.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Liverpool's 20% rate and Tottenham's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Liverpool, 0 for Tottenham and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Dec 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Liverpool trading profile (34 games, 17 at home): BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time.
Tottenham trading profile (34 games, 17 at away): BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Liverpool 35% versus Tottenham 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Liverpool 62% | Tottenham 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Liverpool 1.60 xG and Tottenham 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Liverpool attack 1.454 / defence 0.644 | Tottenham attack 1.048 / defence 0.982. League average goals — home 1.118 / away 1.300. Liverpool carry an above-average attack strength of 1.454 — their λ of 1.60 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Liverpool's defence rating of 0.644 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 34 Liverpool games / 34 Tottenham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Liverpool 54% | Draw 25% | Tottenham 21%. Fair-value odds: Liverpool 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | Tottenham 4.76. Liverpool hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Liverpool as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Liverpool offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Liverpool 20% | Tottenham 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Liverpool vs Tottenham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Anfield • Kick-off: Saturday 7 May 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Liverpool 54% | Draw 25% | Tottenham 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 47% | xG Liverpool 1.60 / Tottenham 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Liverpool attack 1.454 / def 0.644 | Tottenham attack 1.048 / def 0.982 | league avg home 1.118 / away 1.300 • Poisson stance: Liverpool (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Liverpool xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Tottenham xG
47%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Liverpool vs Tottenham kick off?
Liverpool vs Tottenham kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 7 May 2022 at Anfield.
What was the final score in Liverpool vs Tottenham?
Liverpool 1 - 1 Tottenham.
Where is Liverpool vs Tottenham being played?
The match is being played at Anfield.
What competition is Liverpool vs Tottenham part of?
Liverpool vs Tottenham is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Liverpool vs Tottenham?
Our statistical model gives Liverpool a 54% chance of winning, Tottenham a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Liverpool the favourite.
Will both teams score in Liverpool vs Tottenham?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Liverpool and Tottenham will score (BTTS).
Will Liverpool vs Tottenham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Liverpool and Tottenham?
Record (1 meetings): Liverpool 0W | Draws 1 | Tottenham 0W.
What form are Liverpool and Tottenham in?
Liverpool (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Tottenham (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Liverpool's attack rating (1.45) and Tottenham's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.60 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Tottenham's attack versus Liverpool's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 2-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Liverpool Win
54%
1.84
25%
3.99
21%
4.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Liverpool xG
Total xG
2.47
0.88
Tottenham xG
1.84
54%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
4.84
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
42%
2.41
20%
4.93
Win to Nil
23%
4.43
4%
23.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.4 | 11.8 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.4 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Liverpool vs Tottenham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Liverpool and Tottenham expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Liverpool and 0.88 for Tottenham, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Liverpool vs Tottenham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Liverpool's recent record stands at 25W 7D 2L from 34 games, a 2.41 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-W in the last five.
Tottenham, meanwhile, have gone 19W 4D 11L across 34 games — 1.79 PPG, with W-W-L-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Liverpool by 0.62 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Tottenham heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Liverpool have managed 14W 3D 0L from 17 games — 2.65 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Tottenham's away record stands at 8W 3D 6L across 17 trips, a 1.59 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Liverpool come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Liverpool are averaging 2.53 goals scored and 0.65 conceded per game recently; Tottenham are on 1.74 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Liverpool have kept a clean sheet in 62% of their games; Tottenham in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Liverpool
Current Season
Tottenham
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Liverpool and Tottenham in coming into this match?
Liverpool have gone 25W 7D 2L in their last 34 games (2.41 PPG), while Tottenham have gone 19W 4D 11L in their last 34 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Liverpool at home or Tottenham away?
Liverpool's home record (2.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Liverpool at home: 2.65 PPG; Tottenham away: 1.59 PPG.
Have Liverpool or Tottenham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Liverpool have kept a clean sheet in 62% of their recent games, Tottenham in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Apr 2025, when Liverpool won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Liverpool's record when hosting Tottenham specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Liverpool
3
Draws
1
Tottenham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Liverpool and Tottenham?
From 10 meetings on record, Liverpool have won 6, Tottenham have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Liverpool and Tottenham last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Liverpool 1-1 Tottenham.
Who has won more matches between Liverpool and Tottenham?
Liverpool have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Liverpool 29% BTTS, Tottenham 35%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Liverpool) and 47% (Tottenham).
On the defensive side: Liverpool keep a clean sheet in 71% of their matches; Tottenham in 41%; Tottenham in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Liverpool home games / Tottenham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Liverpool play Tottenham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Liverpool's recent matches and 35% of Tottenham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Liverpool vs Tottenham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Liverpool's recent games and 47% of Tottenham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Liverpool and Tottenham share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Anfield, Regular Season - 36, as Liverpool and Tottenham drew 1-1 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Liverpool 1.60 xG and Tottenham 0.88 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Liverpool attack 1.45 / defence 0.64 against Tottenham attack 1.05 / defence 0.98, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Liverpool 54% | Draw 25% | Tottenham 21%, with Liverpool to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Liverpool 62%, Tottenham 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Liverpool's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time, and conceded here.
Tottenham's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Liverpool arrived the stronger side — 2.41 PPG against 1.79. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Liverpool (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.65 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.