Leeds 0-3 Aston Villa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Aston Villa at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Leeds vs Aston Villa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 20 as Leeds welcome Aston Villa to Elland Road. Kick-off is set for Thursday 10 March 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Leeds stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.90 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Leeds, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Leeds's home record at Elland Road: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Leeds are significantly better at Elland Road than their overall form suggests.
Across all Premier League games this season, Aston Villa have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Aston Villa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Aston Villa have posted 4W 0D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Aston Villa's 1.40 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Leeds's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Leeds, 0 for Aston Villa and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 6.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Feb 2022, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Leeds trading profile (26 games, 13 at home): BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Aston Villa trading profile (26 games, 13 at away): BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Leeds 58% versus Aston Villa 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Leeds 62% | Aston Villa 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Leeds 0.97 xG and Aston Villa 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Leeds attack 0.847 / defence 1.587 | Aston Villa attack 0.729 / defence 1.016. League average goals — home 1.126 / away 1.351. Data: 27 Leeds games / 26 Aston Villa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Leeds 23% | Draw 25% | Aston Villa 51%. Fair-value odds: Leeds 4.35 | Draw 4.00 | Aston Villa 1.96. Aston Villa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Aston Villa as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Aston Villa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Leeds 60% | Aston Villa 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Leeds vs Aston Villa | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Elland Road • Kick-off: Thursday 10 Mar 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Leeds 23% | Draw 25% | Aston Villa 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 49% | xG Leeds 0.97 / Aston Villa 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Leeds attack 0.847 / def 1.587 | Aston Villa attack 0.729 / def 1.016 | league avg home 1.126 / away 1.351 • Poisson stance: Aston Villa (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Leeds xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Aston Villa xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Leeds vs Aston Villa kick off?
Leeds vs Aston Villa kicked off at 19:45 on Thursday 10 March 2022 at Elland Road.
What was the final score in Leeds vs Aston Villa?
Leeds 0 - 3 Aston Villa.
Where is Leeds vs Aston Villa being played?
The match is being played at Elland Road.
What competition is Leeds vs Aston Villa part of?
Leeds vs Aston Villa is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Leeds vs Aston Villa?
Our statistical model gives Leeds a 23% chance of winning, Aston Villa a 51% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Aston Villa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Leeds vs Aston Villa?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Leeds and Aston Villa will score (BTTS).
Will Leeds vs Aston Villa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Leeds and Aston Villa?
Record (1 meetings): Leeds 0W | Draws 1 | Aston Villa 0W.
What form are Leeds and Aston Villa in?
Leeds (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Aston Villa (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Leeds's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Aston Villa's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.97. The same calculation in reverse, Aston Villa's attack versus Leeds's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.9%), 0-2 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aston Villa Win
23%
4.26
25%
3.94
51%
1.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
0 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Leeds xG
Total xG
2.53
1.56
Aston Villa xG
4.26
23%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
1.96
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
21%
4.77
38%
2.64
Win to Nil
5%
20.33
19%
5.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 12.4 | 9.7 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 5.8 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Leeds vs Aston Villa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Leeds and Aston Villa expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Leeds and 1.56 for Aston Villa, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Leeds vs Aston Villa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Leeds's recent record stands at 5W 8D 13L from 26 games, a 0.88 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Leeds is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Aston Villa, meanwhile, have gone 10W 3D 13L across 26 games — 1.27 PPG, with D-L-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Aston Villa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Leeds on 0.88 PPG, Aston Villa on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Leeds have managed 3W 4D 6L from 13 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Aston Villa's away record stands at 5W 0D 8L across 13 trips, a 1.15 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Leeds are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 2.15 conceded per game recently; Aston Villa are on 1.42 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 26 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Leeds
Blended
Aston Villa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Leeds and Aston Villa in coming into this match?
Leeds have gone 5W 8D 13L in their last 26 games (0.88 PPG), while Aston Villa have gone 10W 3D 13L in their last 26 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Leeds at home or Aston Villa away?
Aston Villa's away record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Leeds at home: 1.00 PPG; Aston Villa away: 1.15 PPG.
Have Leeds or Aston Villa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Leeds have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Aston Villa in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Mar 2022, when Aston Villa won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Leeds's record when hosting Aston Villa specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Leeds
3
Draws
3
Aston Villa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Leeds and Aston Villa?
From 6 meetings on record, Leeds have won 0, Aston Villa have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Leeds and Aston Villa last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Aston Villa 1-1 Leeds.
Who has won more matches between Leeds and Aston Villa?
Aston Villa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Leeds 62%, Aston Villa 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Leeds) and 46% (Aston Villa).
On the defensive side: Aston Villa in 31%; Aston Villa in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Leeds home games / Aston Villa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Leeds play Aston Villa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Leeds's recent matches and 38% of Aston Villa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Leeds vs Aston Villa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Leeds's recent games and 46% of Aston Villa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Aston Villa run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Leeds.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aston Villa beat Leeds 0-3 at Elland Road, Regular Season - 20, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Leeds 0.97 xG and Aston Villa 1.56 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Leeds fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Aston Villa outscored their 1.56 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leeds attack 0.85 / defence 1.59 against Aston Villa attack 0.73 / defence 1.02, drawn from 27/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Leeds 23% | Draw 25% | Aston Villa 51%, with Aston Villa to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leeds 62%, Aston Villa 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Leeds's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Aston Villa's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Leeds 0.88 PPG, Aston Villa 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Aston Villa win broke the near-deadlock. Leeds (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Aston Villa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.