Fulham 0-1 Manchester United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fulham at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fulham vs Manchester United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 23 as Fulham welcome Manchester United to Craven Cottage. Kick-off is set for Sunday 26 January 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Fulham — All Games: 3W 6D 1L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W D D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Fulham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Craven Cottage, Fulham have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Premier League games this season, Manchester United have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Manchester United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Manchester United away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Fulham carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Manchester United have the better historical record — 4 wins from 5 previous contests against 1 for Fulham.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2024, ended 0–1 with Manchester United winning.
It is worth noting that Manchester United have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Fulham in-play and half-time data (60 games, 29 at home): BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Manchester United in-play and half-time data (60 games, 29 at away): BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fulham 58% versus Manchester United 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fulham 60% | Manchester United 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 1.41 xG and Manchester United 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 0.992 / defence 1.022 | Manchester United attack 0.783 / defence 0.972. League average goals — home 1.464 / away 1.564. Data: 60 Fulham games / 60 Manchester United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fulham 39% | Draw 29% | Manchester United 32%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | Manchester United 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Manchester United lead the H2H ledger, but Fulham carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Fulham are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fulham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Fulham 90% | Manchester United 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fulham vs Manchester United | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Craven Cottage • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Jan 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fulham 39% | Draw 29% | Manchester United 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 56% | xG Fulham 1.41 / Manchester United 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Fulham attack 0.992 / def 1.022 | Manchester United attack 0.783 / def 0.972 | league avg home 1.464 / away 1.564 • Poisson stance: Fulham (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Fulham xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Manchester United xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fulham vs Manchester United kick off?
Fulham vs Manchester United kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 26 January 2025 at Craven Cottage.
What was the final score in Fulham vs Manchester United?
Fulham 0 - 1 Manchester United.
Where is Fulham vs Manchester United being played?
The match is being played at Craven Cottage.
What competition is Fulham vs Manchester United part of?
Fulham vs Manchester United is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Fulham vs Manchester United?
Our statistical model gives Fulham a 39% chance of winning, Manchester United a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Manchester United?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Fulham and Manchester United will score (BTTS).
Will Fulham vs Manchester United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Manchester United?
Record (5 meetings): Fulham 1W | Draws 0 | Manchester United 4W.
What form are Fulham and Manchester United in?
Fulham (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-L-W. Manchester United (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Fulham's attack at 0.99x the league average against Manchester United's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Manchester United's attack versus Fulham's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
39%
2.56
29%
3.40
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Fulham xG
Total xG
2.67
1.25
Manchester United xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
24%
4.11
Win to Nil
11%
8.96
8%
13.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.3 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.7 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fulham vs Manchester United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Fulham and Manchester United expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Fulham and 1.25 for Manchester United, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Fulham vs Manchester United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Fulham come into this having played 60 games, going 21W 17D 22L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-L-W. The sample for Fulham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Manchester United sit at 1.43 PPG from 60 outings (25W 11D 24L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Manchester United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fulham on 1.33 PPG, Manchester United on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Fulham's home form reads 13W 7D 9L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.59 PPG return.
Away from home, Manchester United have taken 1.28 points per game from 29 outings (10W 7D 12L).
The Goals Picture
Fulham are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Manchester United are on 1.40 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fulham
Blended
Manchester United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fulham and Manchester United in coming into this match?
Fulham have gone 21W 17D 22L in their last 60 games (1.33 PPG), while Manchester United have gone 25W 11D 24L in their last 60 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fulham at home or Manchester United away?
Fulham's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fulham at home: 1.59 PPG; Manchester United away: 1.28 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fulham and Manchester United runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Fulham's record when hosting Manchester United specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Fulham
1
Draws
6
Manchester United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Manchester United?
From 8 meetings on record, Fulham have won 1, Manchester United have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fulham and Manchester United last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Manchester United 3-2 Fulham.
Who has won more matches between Fulham and Manchester United?
Manchester United have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fulham 59%, Manchester United 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 66% for Fulham and 55% for Manchester United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Manchester United in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fulham home games / Manchester United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fulham play Manchester United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Fulham's games and 52% of Manchester United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fulham vs Manchester United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of Fulham's matches and 55% of Manchester United's.
Shock result as Manchester United defy the odds to beat Fulham 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Manchester United beat Fulham 0-1 at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 23, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 1.41 xG and Manchester United 1.25 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Fulham fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 0.99 / defence 1.02 against Manchester United attack 0.78 / defence 0.97, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fulham 39% | Draw 29% | Manchester United 32%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Manchester United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 60%, Manchester United 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fulham's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Manchester United's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fulham 1.33 PPG, Manchester United 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Manchester United win broke the near-deadlock. Fulham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.69 scoring average — below par going forward. Manchester United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.