Fulham 3-1 Brighton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Brighton at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fulham vs Brighton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fulham host Brighton at Craven Cottage in Premier League, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 5 December 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Fulham — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Fulham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fulham at Craven Cottage this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Brighton stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Brighton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Brighton have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Fulham) versus 1.60 (Brighton). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Fulham register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Brighton in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Fulham: 3 wins from 4 previous clashes against 0 for Brighton, with 1 draws across those contests.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Mar 2024, ended 3–0 with Fulham winning.
The historical record gives Fulham a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Fulham in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at home): BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Brighton in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at away): BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fulham 55% and Brighton 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fulham 59% | Brighton 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 1.29 xG and Brighton 2.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 0.896 / defence 1.263 | Brighton attack 1.150 / defence 0.894. League average goals — home 1.617 / away 1.405. Data: 51 Fulham games / 51 Brighton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fulham 23% | Draw 24% | Brighton 53%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 4.35 | Draw 4.17 | Brighton 1.89. Brighton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.29 / 2.04) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Brighton are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Brighton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.34 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Fulham 80% | Brighton 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fulham vs Brighton | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Craven Cottage • Kick-off: Thursday 5 Dec 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fulham 23% | Draw 24% | Brighton 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 65% | xG Fulham 1.29 / Brighton 2.04 • Poisson strength factors: Fulham attack 0.896 / def 1.263 | Brighton attack 1.150 / def 0.894 | league avg home 1.617 / away 1.405 • Poisson stance: Brighton (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Fulham xG
Expected Goals
2.04
Brighton xG
65%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fulham vs Brighton kick off?
Fulham vs Brighton kicked off at 19:30 on Thursday 5 December 2024 at Craven Cottage.
What was the final score in Fulham vs Brighton?
Fulham 3 - 1 Brighton.
Where is Fulham vs Brighton being played?
The match is being played at Craven Cottage.
What competition is Fulham vs Brighton part of?
Fulham vs Brighton is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Fulham vs Brighton?
Our statistical model gives Fulham a 23% chance of winning, Brighton a 53% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Brighton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Brighton?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Fulham and Brighton will score (BTTS).
Will Fulham vs Brighton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Brighton?
Record (4 meetings): Fulham 3W | Draws 1 | Brighton 0W.
What form are Fulham and Brighton in?
Fulham (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-L-D. Brighton (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Fulham's attack at 0.90x the league average against Brighton's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Brighton's attack versus Fulham's defence, projects 2.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Brighton Win
23%
4.44
24%
4.13
53%
1.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
0 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Fulham xG
Total xG
3.34
2.04
Brighton xG
4.44
23%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
1.88
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.83
Clean Sheet
13%
7.71
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
3%
34.20
15%
6.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 7.3 | 7.4 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 9.4 | 9.6 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fulham vs Brighton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Fulham and Brighton expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Fulham and 2.04 for Brighton, a combined total of 3.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Fulham vs Brighton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Fulham's recent record stands at 18W 12D 21L from 51 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Fulham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Brighton, meanwhile, have gone 18W 17D 16L across 51 games — 1.39 PPG, with D-L-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Brighton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fulham on 1.29 PPG, Brighton on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Fulham have managed 12W 3D 10L from 25 games — 1.56 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Brighton's away record stands at 7W 7D 11L across 25 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fulham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Fulham are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Brighton are on 1.51 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brighton in 69%.
Last 51 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fulham
Blended
Brighton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fulham and Brighton in coming into this match?
Fulham have gone 18W 12D 21L in their last 51 games (1.29 PPG), while Brighton have gone 18W 17D 16L in their last 51 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fulham at home or Brighton away?
Fulham's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fulham at home: 1.56 PPG; Brighton away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Mar 2024, when Fulham won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fulham's record when hosting Brighton specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Fulham
2
Draws
1
Brighton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Brighton?
From 8 meetings on record, Fulham have won 5, Brighton have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fulham and Brighton last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Fulham 2-1 Brighton.
Who has won more matches between Fulham and Brighton?
Fulham have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fulham 52%, Brighton 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Fulham and 64% for Brighton. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fulham have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fulham home games / Brighton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fulham play Brighton?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Fulham's games and 64% of Brighton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fulham vs Brighton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Fulham's matches and 64% of Brighton's.
Fulham cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Brighton.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fulham beat Brighton 3-1 at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 1.29 xG and Brighton 2.04 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Fulham beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Brighton landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 0.90 / defence 1.26 against Brighton attack 1.15 / defence 0.89, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fulham 23% | Draw 24% | Brighton 53%, with Brighton to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Fulham win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 59%, Brighton 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fulham's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Brighton's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fulham 1.29 PPG, Brighton 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fulham win broke the near-deadlock. Fulham (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.64 average — above their attacking norm. Brighton (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.72 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.