Fulham 2-2 Bournemouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bournemouth at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Fulham face Bournemouth.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Bournemouth travel to Craven Cottage to take on Fulham in Premier League (matchday 19). The game is scheduled for Sunday 29 December 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Fulham have gone 4W 5D 1L — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W D D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Fulham's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bournemouth — last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Bournemouth's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Fulham 1.70 PPG, Bournemouth 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Fulham's last 10 home games and Bournemouth's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 6 H2H matches, Fulham have won 1, Bournemouth 2, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 6 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 10 Feb 2024, ended Fulham 3–1 Bournemouth — a Fulham win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Fulham trading profile (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Bournemouth trading profile (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fulham 57% versus Bournemouth 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fulham 59% | Bournemouth 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 1.36 xG and Bournemouth 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 0.924 / defence 1.020 | Bournemouth attack 1.189 / defence 0.985. League average goals — home 1.496 / away 1.458. Data: built from Fulham's last 56 games and Bournemouth's last 56.
Result probabilities: Fulham 28% | Draw 27% | Bournemouth 45%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 3.61 | Draw 3.69 | Bournemouth 2.21. Bournemouth hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.36 / 1.77) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bournemouth as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bournemouth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.13 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Fulham's last 10 home games and Bournemouth's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Fulham 80% (last 10 home games) | Bournemouth 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fulham vs Bournemouth | Competition: Premier League, matchday 19 | Venue: Craven Cottage • Kick-off: Sunday 29 December 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fulham 28% | Draw 27% | Bournemouth 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 64% (No 36%) | xG Fulham 1.36 / Bournemouth 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: Fulham attack 0.924 / def 1.020 | Bournemouth attack 1.189 / def 0.985 | league avg home 1.496 / away 1.458 • Poisson stance: Bournemouth (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Fulham xG
Expected Goals
1.77
Bournemouth xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Fulham vs Bournemouth FAQs
What time does Fulham vs Bournemouth kick off?
Fulham vs Bournemouth kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 29 December 2024 at Craven Cottage.
What was the final score in Fulham vs Bournemouth?
Fulham 2 - 2 Bournemouth.
Where is Fulham vs Bournemouth being played?
The match is being played at Craven Cottage.
What competition is Fulham vs Bournemouth part of?
Fulham vs Bournemouth is a Premier League fixture (matchday 19) (England).
Who is favourite to win Fulham vs Bournemouth?
Our statistical model gives Fulham a 28% chance of winning, Bournemouth a 45% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bournemouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Bournemouth?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Fulham and Bournemouth will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Fulham vs Bournemouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Fulham's attack rating (0.92) and Bournemouth's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bournemouth's attack versus Fulham's defence, projects 1.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Fulham's last 56 games and Bournemouth's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bournemouth Win
28%
3.61
27%
3.69
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Fulham xG
Total xG
3.13
1.77
Bournemouth xG
3.61
28%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.75
Clean Sheet
17%
5.86
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
5%
21.13
12%
8.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 7.7 | 6.8 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.5 | 9.3 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.2 | 6.3 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Fulham vs Bournemouth Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Fulham vs Bournemouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Fulham and Bournemouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Fulham and 1.77 for Bournemouth, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Fulham vs Bournemouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 56 outings, Fulham have picked up 1.34 PPG on a 20W 15D 21L record — W-D-D-D-W across the most recent five.
Bournemouth's form line: 21W 14D 21L from 56 games, 1.38 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fulham on 1.34 PPG, Bournemouth on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Fulham have posted 1.57 PPG from their last 28 home games (13W 5D 10L).
On the road, Bournemouth have gone 10W 5D 13L from their last 28 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Fulham are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Bournemouth are on 1.45 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bournemouth in 61%.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fulham
Blended
Bournemouth
Blended
Fulham (Home) vs Bournemouth (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Fulham
Blended
Bournemouth
Blended
❓ Fulham vs Bournemouth Form FAQs
What form are Fulham and Bournemouth in coming into this match?
Fulham have gone 20W 15D 21L in their last 56 games (1.34 PPG), while Bournemouth have gone 21W 14D 21L in their last 56 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fulham at home or Bournemouth away?
Fulham's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fulham at home: 1.57 PPG; Bournemouth away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from December 2021. They cover more than one competition — Championship, Premier League. The most recent was on 9 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Bournemouth have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 26 Dec 2023, when Bournemouth won Bournemouth 3-0 Fulham.
Fulham's record when hosting Bournemouth specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Fulham
4
Draws
5
Bournemouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Fulham vs Bournemouth H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Bournemouth?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Fulham have won 1, Bournemouth have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Fulham and Bournemouth last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 May 2026: Fulham 0-1 Bournemouth.
Who has won more matches between Fulham and Bournemouth?
Bournemouth have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Bournemouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fulham 54%, Bournemouth 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Fulham and 75% for Bournemouth. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fulham have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fulham home games / Bournemouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Fulham vs Bournemouth Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Fulham and Bournemouth matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Fulham's games and 68% of Bournemouth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Fulham and Bournemouth matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Fulham's matches and 75% of Bournemouth's.
Do Fulham and Bournemouth matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Fulham's recent matches and 82% of Bournemouth's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fulham and Bournemouth share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 19, as Fulham and Bournemouth drew 2-2 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 1.36 xG and Bournemouth 1.77 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 0.92 / defence 1.02 against Bournemouth attack 1.19 / defence 0.98, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fulham 28% | Draw 27% | Bournemouth 45%, with Bournemouth to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 59%, Bournemouth 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fulham's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Bournemouth's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fulham 1.34 PPG, Bournemouth 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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