Everton 0-1 West Ham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Everton at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Everton vs West Ham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 8 as Everton welcome West Ham to Goodison Park. Kick-off is set for Sunday 17 October 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Everton stand at 4W 2D 1L from 7 Premier League matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.86 goals per game, with 1.14 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Everton have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Everton at Goodison Park this season: 3W 0D 0L from 3 home games — 3.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.67 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Everton are significantly better at Goodison Park than their overall form suggests.
Across all Premier League games this season, West Ham have recorded 3W 2D 2L from 7 outings — 1.57 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 86% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. West Ham have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, West Ham have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 away fixtures this term (2.33 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.33 exceeds their overall 1.57 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.00 PPG (Everton) versus 1.57 (West Ham). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Everton register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, West Ham in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Everton in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at home): BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%.
West Ham in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at away): BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Everton 57% and West Ham 86% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Everton 57% | West Ham 86%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton 1.55 xG and West Ham 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton attack 1.275 / defence 1.057 | West Ham attack 1.028 / defence 1.113. League average goals — home 1.094 / away 1.177. Everton carry an above-average attack strength of 1.275 — their λ of 1.55 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 7 Everton games / 7 West Ham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton 44% | Draw 25% | West Ham 31%. Fair-value odds: Everton 2.27 | Draw 4.00 | West Ham 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Everton as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Everton 67% | West Ham 67% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton vs West Ham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Goodison Park • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Oct 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton 44% | Draw 25% | West Ham 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Everton 1.55 / West Ham 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Everton attack 1.275 / def 1.057 | West Ham attack 1.028 / def 1.113 | league avg home 1.094 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: Everton (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Everton xG
Expected Goals
1.28
West Ham xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton vs West Ham kick off?
Everton vs West Ham kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 17 October 2021 at Goodison Park.
What was the final score in Everton vs West Ham?
Everton 0 - 1 West Ham.
Where is Everton vs West Ham being played?
The match is being played at Goodison Park.
What competition is Everton vs West Ham part of?
Everton vs West Ham is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Everton vs West Ham?
Our statistical model gives Everton a 44% chance of winning, West Ham a 31% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Everton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton vs West Ham?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Everton and West Ham will score (BTTS).
Will Everton vs West Ham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and West Ham?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Everton and West Ham in?
Everton (all comps): 4W-2D-1L in 7 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.86 / GA 1.14 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. West Ham (all comps): 3W-2D-2L in 7 | 1.57 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.43 | L5 D-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Everton's attack rating (1.27) and West Ham's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, West Ham's attack versus Everton's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton Win
44%
2.29
25%
4.02
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Everton xG
Total xG
2.83
1.28
West Ham xG
2.29
44%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
21%
4.72
Win to Nil
12%
8.22
7%
15.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.5 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.7 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.1 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton vs West Ham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Everton and West Ham expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Everton and 1.28 for West Ham, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton vs West Ham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Everton come into this having played 7 games, going 4W 2D 1L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Everton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, West Ham sit at 1.57 PPG from 7 outings (3W 2D 2L), a run that reads D-D-L-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for West Ham, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Everton carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of West Ham — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Everton's home form reads 3W 0D 0L across 3 games on their own ground, a 3.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.00 PPG overall — Everton are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, West Ham have taken 2.33 points per game from 3 outings (2W 1D 0L). That's actually stronger than their 1.57 PPG overall record — West Ham travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Everton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Everton are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; West Ham are on 2.00 scored and 1.43 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: West Ham in 86%.
Last 7 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton
Early Season
West Ham
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton and West Ham in coming into this match?
Everton have gone 4W 2D 1L in their last 7 games (2.00 PPG), while West Ham have gone 3W 2D 2L in their last 7 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton at home or West Ham away?
Everton's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton at home: 3.00 PPG; West Ham away: 2.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Everton's record when hosting West Ham specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Everton
3
Draws
5
West Ham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and West Ham?
From 10 meetings on record, Everton have won 2, West Ham have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Everton and West Ham last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when West Ham 2-1 Everton.
Who has won more matches between Everton and West Ham?
West Ham have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Everton at 67%, West Ham at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Everton and 67% for West Ham. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Everton keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; West Ham in 33%; West Ham in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton home games / West Ham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton play West Ham?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Everton's games and 67% of West Ham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Everton vs West Ham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Everton's matches and 67% of West Ham's.
Shock result as West Ham defy the odds to beat Everton 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
West Ham beat Everton 0-1 at Goodison Park, Regular Season - 8, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton 1.55 xG and West Ham 1.28 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Everton fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton attack 1.27 / defence 1.06 against West Ham attack 1.03 / defence 1.11, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton 44% | Draw 25% | West Ham 31%, with Everton to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual West Ham win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton 57%, West Ham 86%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
West Ham's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 86% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Everton arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.57. Form was overturned, with West Ham winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Everton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.67 scoring average — below par going forward. West Ham (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.