Everton 3-0 Nottingham Forest – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nottingham Forest at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Everton vs Nottingham Forest fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Hill Dickinson Stadium plays host to Everton versus Nottingham Forest in Premier League, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Saturday 6 December 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Everton have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D W W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Everton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Hill Dickinson Stadium, Everton have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Nottingham Forest's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Nottingham Forest, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nottingham Forest's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Everton 3W, Nottingham Forest 1W, 2D.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2025, ended 1–0 with Everton winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Everton — key trading statistics (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Nottingham Forest — key trading statistics (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton 42% versus Nottingham Forest 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton 36% | Nottingham Forest 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton 1.17 xG and Nottingham Forest 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton attack 0.875 / defence 1.093 | Nottingham Forest attack 0.911 / defence 0.872. League average goals — home 1.532 / away 1.290. Data: 52 Everton games / 52 Nottingham Forest games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton 34% | Draw 27% | Nottingham Forest 39%. Fair-value odds: Everton 2.94 | Draw 3.70 | Nottingham Forest 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nottingham Forest are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nottingham Forest if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Everton 40% | Nottingham Forest 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton vs Nottingham Forest | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Hill Dickinson Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Dec 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton 34% | Draw 27% | Nottingham Forest 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Everton 1.17 / Nottingham Forest 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Everton attack 0.875 / def 1.093 | Nottingham Forest attack 0.911 / def 0.872 | league avg home 1.532 / away 1.290 • Poisson stance: Nottingham Forest (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Everton xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Nottingham Forest xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton vs Nottingham Forest kick off?
Everton vs Nottingham Forest kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 6 December 2025 at Hill Dickinson Stadium.
What was the final score in Everton vs Nottingham Forest?
Everton 3 - 0 Nottingham Forest.
Where is Everton vs Nottingham Forest being played?
The match is being played at Hill Dickinson Stadium.
What competition is Everton vs Nottingham Forest part of?
Everton vs Nottingham Forest is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Everton vs Nottingham Forest?
Our statistical model gives Everton a 34% chance of winning, Nottingham Forest a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Nottingham Forest the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Nottingham Forest?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Everton and Nottingham Forest will score (BTTS).
Will Everton vs Nottingham Forest have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Nottingham Forest?
Record (6 meetings): Everton 3W | Draws 2 | Nottingham Forest 1W.
What form are Everton and Nottingham Forest in?
Everton (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Nottingham Forest (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Everton's attack at 0.88x the league average against Nottingham Forest's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Nottingham Forest's attack (0.91x) against Everton's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nottingham Forest Win
34%
2.98
27%
3.67
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Everton xG
Total xG
2.45
1.28
Nottingham Forest xG
2.98
34%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
9%
10.76
12%
8.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 11.0 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.9 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.5 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton vs Nottingham Forest?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Everton and Nottingham Forest expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Everton and 1.28 for Nottingham Forest, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton vs Nottingham Forest?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 52 outings, Everton have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 17W 18D 17L record — D-W-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Everton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nottingham Forest's form line: 23W 11D 18L from 52 games, 1.54 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-W. The sample for Nottingham Forest is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Everton against 1.54 for Nottingham Forest. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Everton have posted 1.35 PPG from 26 outings (8W 11D 7L).
On the road, Nottingham Forest have gone 12W 5D 9L from 26 away games — 1.58 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Everton are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Nottingham Forest are on 1.38 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton
Blended
Nottingham Forest
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton and Nottingham Forest in coming into this match?
Everton have gone 17W 18D 17L in their last 52 games (1.33 PPG), while Nottingham Forest have gone 23W 11D 18L in their last 52 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton at home or Nottingham Forest away?
Nottingham Forest's away record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton at home: 1.35 PPG; Nottingham Forest away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Everton or Nottingham Forest been keeping clean sheets recently?
Everton have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Nottingham Forest in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 30 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Everton go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Everton won 3-0 on 6 Dec 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Everton have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Nottingham Forest — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Everton
2
Draws
1
Nottingham Forest
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Nottingham Forest?
From 8 meetings on record, Everton have won 5, Nottingham Forest have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Everton and Nottingham Forest last play each other?
They last met on 30 December 2025, when Nottingham Forest 0-2 Everton.
Who has won more matches between Everton and Nottingham Forest?
Everton have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Everton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Nottingham Forest are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton 46%, Nottingham Forest 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Everton) and 58% (Nottingham Forest).
On the defensive side: Everton keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Everton have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton home games / Nottingham Forest away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton play Nottingham Forest?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Everton's recent matches and 50% of Nottingham Forest's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton vs Nottingham Forest usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Everton's recent games and 58% of Nottingham Forest's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Everton and Nottingham Forest tend to score early?
Everton have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Nottingham Forest in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Everton run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Nottingham Forest.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton beat Nottingham Forest 3-0 at Hill Dickinson Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton 1.17 xG and Nottingham Forest 1.28 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Everton beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Nottingham Forest landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton attack 0.88 / defence 1.09 against Nottingham Forest attack 0.91 / defence 0.87, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton 34% | Draw 27% | Nottingham Forest 39%, with Nottingham Forest to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Everton win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton 36%, Nottingham Forest 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Nottingham Forest's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Everton 1.33 PPG, Nottingham Forest 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Everton win broke the near-deadlock. Everton (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. Nottingham Forest (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.