Everton 1-0 Newcastle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Newcastle at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Everton vs Newcastle encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Newcastle travel to Goodison Park to take on Everton. The game is scheduled for Thursday 17 March 2022, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Everton stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Everton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Goodison Park, Everton have gone 2W 1D 7L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Newcastle — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Newcastle have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Newcastle's 2.10 PPG return is 1.70 points per game ahead of Everton's 0.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Everton, 1 for Newcastle and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2022, ended 1–3 with Newcastle winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Everton trading profile (26 games, 13 at home): BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Newcastle trading profile (26 games, 13 at away): BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton 50% versus Newcastle 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton 58% | Newcastle 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton 1.10 xG and Newcastle 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton attack 0.876 / defence 1.155 | Newcastle attack 0.735 / defence 1.138. League average goals — home 1.106 / away 1.335. Data: 26 Everton games / 28 Newcastle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton 35% | Draw 29% | Newcastle 36%. Fair-value odds: Everton 2.86 | Draw 3.45 | Newcastle 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Newcastle as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Newcastle offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.24 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Everton 40% | Newcastle 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton vs Newcastle | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Goodison Park • Kick-off: Thursday 17 Mar 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton 35% | Draw 29% | Newcastle 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Everton 1.10 / Newcastle 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Everton attack 0.876 / def 1.155 | Newcastle attack 0.735 / def 1.138 | league avg home 1.106 / away 1.335 • Poisson stance: Newcastle (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Everton xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Newcastle xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton vs Newcastle kick off?
Everton vs Newcastle kicked off at 19:45 on Thursday 17 March 2022 at Goodison Park.
What was the final score in Everton vs Newcastle?
Everton 1 - 0 Newcastle.
Where is Everton vs Newcastle being played?
The match is being played at Goodison Park.
What competition is Everton vs Newcastle part of?
Everton vs Newcastle is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Everton vs Newcastle?
Our statistical model gives Everton a 35% chance of winning, Newcastle a 36% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Newcastle the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Newcastle?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Everton and Newcastle will score (BTTS).
Will Everton vs Newcastle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Newcastle?
Record (1 meetings): Everton 0W | Draws 0 | Newcastle 1W.
What form are Everton and Newcastle in?
Everton (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Newcastle (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Everton's attack rating (0.88) and Newcastle's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Newcastle's attack versus Everton's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.4%), 0-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Newcastle Win
35%
2.87
29%
3.47
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Everton xG
Total xG
2.24
1.13
Newcastle xG
2.87
35%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
11%
8.92
12%
8.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 12.1 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton vs Newcastle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Everton and Newcastle expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Everton and 1.13 for Newcastle, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton vs Newcastle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 26 outings, Everton have picked up 0.85 PPG on a 6W 4D 16L record — W-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Everton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Newcastle's form line: 7W 10D 9L from 26 games, 1.19 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-L. The sample for Newcastle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Everton on 0.85 PPG, Newcastle on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Everton have posted 1.23 PPG from 13 outings (5W 1D 7L).
On the road, Newcastle have gone 3W 4D 6L from 13 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Everton are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; Newcastle are on 1.15 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Newcastle in 65%.
Last 26 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton
Blended
Newcastle
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton and Newcastle in coming into this match?
Everton have gone 6W 4D 16L in their last 26 games (0.85 PPG), while Newcastle have gone 7W 10D 9L in their last 26 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton at home or Newcastle away?
Everton's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton at home: 1.23 PPG; Newcastle away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Everton and Newcastle runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Apr 2023, when Newcastle won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Everton's record when hosting Newcastle specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Everton
2
Draws
4
Newcastle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Newcastle?
From 10 meetings on record, Everton have won 4, Newcastle have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Everton and Newcastle last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Newcastle 2-3 Everton.
📈 Trading Insight
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton 46%, Newcastle 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Everton) and 38% (Newcastle).
On the defensive side: Everton have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton home games / Newcastle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton play Newcastle?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Everton's recent matches and 62% of Newcastle's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton vs Newcastle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Everton's recent games and 38% of Newcastle's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Everton defy the odds to beat Newcastle 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton beat Newcastle 1-0 at Goodison Park, Regular Season - 20, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton 1.10 xG and Newcastle 1.13 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Newcastle landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton attack 0.88 / defence 1.16 against Newcastle attack 0.73 / defence 1.14, drawn from 26/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton 35% | Draw 29% | Newcastle 36%, with Newcastle to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Everton win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton 58%, Newcastle 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Newcastle's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Everton 0.85 PPG, Newcastle 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Everton win broke the near-deadlock. Everton (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line. Newcastle (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.