Everton 1-4 Newcastle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Everton at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Everton vs Newcastle fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Newcastle travel to Hill Dickinson Stadium to take on Everton. The game is scheduled for Saturday 29 November 2025, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Everton stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Everton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Hill Dickinson Stadium, Everton have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Newcastle — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Newcastle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Newcastle have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Everton) versus 1.40 (Newcastle). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Everton, 3 for Newcastle and 2 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 May 2025, ended 1–0 with Everton winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Everton trading profile (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Newcastle trading profile (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton 42% versus Newcastle 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton 36% | Newcastle 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton 1.41 xG and Newcastle 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton attack 0.891 / defence 0.889 | Newcastle attack 0.788 / defence 1.012. League average goals — home 1.559 / away 1.198. Data: 50 Everton games / 50 Newcastle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton 50% | Draw 27% | Newcastle 22%. Fair-value odds: Everton 2.00 | Draw 3.70 | Newcastle 4.55. Everton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Everton as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Everton 40% | Newcastle 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton vs Newcastle | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Hill Dickinson Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Nov 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton 50% | Draw 27% | Newcastle 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 43% | xG Everton 1.41 / Newcastle 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Everton attack 0.891 / def 0.889 | Newcastle attack 0.788 / def 1.012 | league avg home 1.559 / away 1.198 • Poisson stance: Everton (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Everton xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Newcastle xG
43%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton vs Newcastle kick off?
Everton vs Newcastle kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 29 November 2025 at Hill Dickinson Stadium.
What was the final score in Everton vs Newcastle?
Everton 1 - 4 Newcastle.
Where is Everton vs Newcastle being played?
The match is being played at Hill Dickinson Stadium.
What competition is Everton vs Newcastle part of?
Everton vs Newcastle is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Everton vs Newcastle?
Our statistical model gives Everton a 50% chance of winning, Newcastle a 22% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Everton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Newcastle?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Everton and Newcastle will score (BTTS).
Will Everton vs Newcastle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Newcastle?
Record (8 meetings): Everton 3W | Draws 2 | Newcastle 3W.
What form are Everton and Newcastle in?
Everton (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Newcastle (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Everton's attack rating (0.89) and Newcastle's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Newcastle's attack versus Everton's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.3%), 0-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton Win
50%
1.99
27%
3.66
22%
4.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Everton xG
Total xG
2.25
0.84
Newcastle xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
4.46
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
24%
4.08
Win to Nil
22%
4.60
5%
18.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 8.9 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 12.5 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 8.8 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton vs Newcastle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Everton and Newcastle expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Everton and 0.84 for Newcastle, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton vs Newcastle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 50 outings, Everton have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 16W 18D 16L record — L-L-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Everton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Newcastle's form line: 24W 9D 17L from 50 games, 1.62 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-W. The sample for Newcastle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Everton on 1.32 PPG, Newcastle on 1.62. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Everton have posted 1.40 PPG from 25 outings (8W 11D 6L).
On the road, Newcastle have gone 8W 7D 10L from 25 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Everton are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Newcastle are on 1.62 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Defensively: Newcastle in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton
Blended
Newcastle
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton and Newcastle in coming into this match?
Everton have gone 16W 18D 16L in their last 50 games (1.32 PPG), while Newcastle have gone 24W 9D 17L in their last 50 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton at home or Newcastle away?
Everton's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton at home: 1.40 PPG; Newcastle away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Everton or Newcastle been keeping clean sheets recently?
Everton have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Newcastle in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Everton and Newcastle runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Apr 2023, when Newcastle won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Everton's record when hosting Newcastle specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Everton
2
Draws
4
Newcastle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Newcastle?
From 10 meetings on record, Everton have won 4, Newcastle have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Everton and Newcastle last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Newcastle 2-3 Everton.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Everton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Newcastle see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton 44%, Newcastle 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Everton) and 56% (Newcastle).
On the defensive side: Everton keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Newcastle in 32%; Everton have failed to score in 36% of games; Newcastle in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton home games / Newcastle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton play Newcastle?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Everton's recent matches and 56% of Newcastle's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton vs Newcastle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Everton's recent games and 56% of Newcastle's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Everton and Newcastle tend to score early?
Everton have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Newcastle in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Newcastle run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Everton.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Newcastle beat Everton 1-4 at Hill Dickinson Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton 1.41 xG and Newcastle 0.84 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Newcastle outscored their 0.84 projection by 3.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton attack 0.89 / defence 0.89 against Newcastle attack 0.79 / defence 1.01, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton 50% | Draw 27% | Newcastle 22%, with Everton to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Newcastle win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton 36%, Newcastle 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Newcastle's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Everton 1.32 PPG, Newcastle 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Newcastle win broke the near-deadlock. Everton (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Newcastle (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.