Everton 0-1 Manchester City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Manchester City at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Everton vs Manchester City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Everton host Manchester City at Goodison Park in Premier League, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 26 February 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Everton have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Everton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Everton's home record at Goodison Park: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Everton are significantly better at Goodison Park than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Manchester City stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Premier League matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Manchester City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Manchester City's form when playing away from home: 8W 2D 0L across 10 road games this term (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Manchester City — 1.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.50 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Everton, 1 for Manchester City and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Nov 2021, ended 0–3 with Manchester City winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Everton in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at home): BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Manchester City in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at away): BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton 56% versus Manchester City 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton 61% | Manchester City 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton 0.93 xG and Manchester City 2.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton attack 1.025 / defence 1.222 | Manchester City attack 1.234 / defence 0.826. League average goals — home 1.099 / away 1.351. Manchester City have an above-average attack strength of 1.234 — the away xG of 2.04 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 23 Everton games / 26 Manchester City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton 16% | Draw 21% | Manchester City 63%. Fair-value odds: Everton 6.25 | Draw 4.76 | Manchester City 1.59. The model has a clear lean to Manchester City (63%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Manchester City are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.97 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Everton 50% | Manchester City 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton vs Manchester City | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Goodison Park • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Feb 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton 16% | Draw 21% | Manchester City 63% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 53% | xG Everton 0.93 / Manchester City 2.04 • Poisson strength factors: Everton attack 1.025 / def 1.222 | Manchester City attack 1.234 / def 0.826 | league avg home 1.099 / away 1.351 • Poisson stance: Manchester City (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Everton xG
Expected Goals
2.04
Manchester City xG
53%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton vs Manchester City kick off?
Everton vs Manchester City kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 26 February 2022 at Goodison Park.
What was the final score in Everton vs Manchester City?
Everton 0 - 1 Manchester City.
Where is Everton vs Manchester City being played?
The match is being played at Goodison Park.
What competition is Everton vs Manchester City part of?
Everton vs Manchester City is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Everton vs Manchester City?
Our statistical model gives Everton a 16% chance of winning, Manchester City a 63% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Manchester City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Manchester City?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Everton and Manchester City will score (BTTS).
Will Everton vs Manchester City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Manchester City?
Record (1 meetings): Everton 0W | Draws 0 | Manchester City 1W.
What form are Everton and Manchester City in?
Everton (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Manchester City (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Everton's attack at 1.02x the league average against Manchester City's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 0.93 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Manchester City's attack versus Everton's defence, projects 2.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (10.7%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Manchester City Win
16%
6.22
21%
4.72
63%
1.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Everton xG
Total xG
2.97
2.04
Manchester City xG
6.22
16%
Home win
4.72
21%
Draw
1.59
63%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
13%
7.68
39%
2.54
Win to Nil
2%
47.73
25%
4.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 10.5 | 10.7 | 7.2 | 3.7 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton vs Manchester City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Everton and Manchester City expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Everton and 2.04 for Manchester City, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton vs Manchester City?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Everton's recent record stands at 6W 4D 13L from 23 games, a 0.96 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Everton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Manchester City, meanwhile, have gone 18W 3D 2L across 23 games — 2.48 PPG, with W-D-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Manchester City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Manchester City by 1.52 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Everton heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Everton have managed 5W 1D 5L from 11 games — 1.45 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.96 PPG overall — Everton are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Manchester City's away record stands at 9W 2D 0L across 11 trips, a 2.64 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Manchester City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Everton are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Manchester City are on 2.30 scored and 0.70 conceded.
Defensively: Manchester City in 57% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton
Blended
Manchester City
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton and Manchester City in coming into this match?
Everton have gone 6W 4D 13L in their last 23 games (0.96 PPG), while Manchester City have gone 18W 3D 2L in their last 23 (2.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton at home or Manchester City away?
Manchester City's away record (2.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton at home: 1.45 PPG; Manchester City away: 2.64 PPG.
Have Everton or Manchester City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Everton have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Manchester City in 57%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Everton and Manchester City runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 4 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Nov 2021, when Manchester City won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Everton's record when hosting Manchester City specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Everton
3
Draws
7
Manchester City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Manchester City?
From 10 meetings on record, Everton have won 0, Manchester City have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Everton and Manchester City last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2026, when Everton 3-3 Manchester City.
Who has won more matches between Everton and Manchester City?
Manchester City have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton 54%, Manchester City 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Everton and 64% for Manchester City. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Manchester City in 46%; Everton have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton home games / Manchester City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton play Manchester City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Everton's recent matches and 54% of Manchester City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton vs Manchester City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Everton's matches and 64% of Manchester City's.
Prediction vindicated as Manchester City edge out Everton 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Manchester City beat Everton 0-1 at Goodison Park, Regular Season - 27, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton 0.93 xG and Manchester City 2.04 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Everton fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Manchester City landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton attack 1.02 / defence 1.22 against Manchester City attack 1.23 / defence 0.83, drawn from 23/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton 16% | Draw 21% | Manchester City 63%, with Manchester City to win its most likely call at 63%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton 61%, Manchester City 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Manchester City's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Manchester City arrived the stronger side — 2.48 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Everton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.64 scoring average — below par going forward. Manchester City (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.36 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.