Everton 1-3 Fulham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Everton at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Everton vs Fulham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Fulham travel to Goodison Park to take on Everton. The game is scheduled for Saturday 15 April 2023, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Everton have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D W D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Everton at Goodison Park this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Fulham — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Fulham's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Everton) versus 0.80 (Fulham). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Everton, 0 for Fulham and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Everton in-play and half-time data (68 games, 33 at home): BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Fulham in-play and half-time data (68 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton 48% versus Fulham 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton 47% | Fulham 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton 1.13 xG and Fulham 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton attack 0.750 / defence 0.951 | Fulham attack 0.933 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 1.471 / away 1.168. Everton's attack strength of 0.750 is below the league average — the 1.13 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 68 Everton games / 29 Fulham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton 38% | Draw 29% | Fulham 33%. Fair-value odds: Everton 2.63 | Draw 3.45 | Fulham 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Everton as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Everton 40% | Fulham 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton vs Fulham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Goodison Park • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Apr 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton 38% | Draw 29% | Fulham 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Everton 1.13 / Fulham 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Everton attack 0.750 / def 0.951 | Fulham attack 0.933 / def 1.025 | league avg home 1.471 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Everton (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Everton xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Fulham xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton vs Fulham kick off?
Everton vs Fulham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 15 April 2023 at Goodison Park.
What was the final score in Everton vs Fulham?
Everton 1 - 3 Fulham.
Where is Everton vs Fulham being played?
The match is being played at Goodison Park.
What competition is Everton vs Fulham part of?
Everton vs Fulham is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Everton vs Fulham?
Our statistical model gives Everton a 38% chance of winning, Fulham a 33% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Everton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Fulham?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Everton and Fulham will score (BTTS).
Will Everton vs Fulham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Fulham?
Record (1 meetings): Everton 0W | Draws 1 | Fulham 0W.
What form are Everton and Fulham in?
Everton (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-D-L. Fulham (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Everton's attack rating (0.75) and Fulham's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Fulham's attack versus Everton's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 68/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton Win
38%
2.65
29%
3.41
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Everton xG
Total xG
2.17
1.04
Fulham xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
13%
7.47
11%
9.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 11.9 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.4 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.6 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton vs Fulham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Everton and Fulham expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Everton and 1.04 for Fulham, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton vs Fulham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Everton come into this having played 68 games, going 17W 15D 36L for 0.97 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-D-L.
On the other side, Fulham sit at 1.66 PPG from 68 outings (33W 14D 21L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-L across their last five.
Fulham carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.69 PPG clear of Everton — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Everton's home form reads 13W 5D 15L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Fulham have taken 1.58 points per game from 33 outings (15W 7D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
Everton are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Fulham are on 1.88 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 68 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton
Current Season
Fulham
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton and Fulham in coming into this match?
Everton have gone 17W 15D 36L in their last 68 games (0.97 PPG), while Fulham have gone 33W 14D 21L in their last 68 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton at home or Fulham away?
Fulham's away record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton at home: 1.33 PPG; Fulham away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Everton or Fulham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Everton have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Fulham in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Everton have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Everton's record when hosting Fulham specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Everton
3
Draws
2
Fulham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Fulham?
From 8 meetings on record, Everton have won 3, Fulham have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Everton and Fulham last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Fulham 1-2 Everton.
Who has won more matches between Everton and Fulham?
Everton have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton 42%, Fulham 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Everton) and 52% (Fulham).
On the defensive side: Everton keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Fulham in 39%; Everton have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton home games / Fulham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton play Fulham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Everton's recent matches and 52% of Fulham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton vs Fulham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Everton's recent games and 52% of Fulham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Fulham cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Everton.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fulham beat Everton 1-3 at Goodison Park, Regular Season - 31, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton 1.13 xG and Fulham 1.04 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Fulham outscored their 1.04 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton attack 0.75 / defence 0.95 against Fulham attack 0.93 / defence 1.02, drawn from 68/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton 38% | Draw 29% | Fulham 33%, with Everton to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Fulham win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton 47%, Fulham 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Fulham's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Fulham arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 0.97. That form edge translated into the three points. Everton (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fulham (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.