Chelsea 1-0 West Ham – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Chelsea at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chelsea vs West Ham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 34 as Chelsea welcome West Ham to Stamford Bridge. Kick-off is set for Sunday 24 April 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Chelsea — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home at Stamford Bridge, Chelsea have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stamford Bridge this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, West Ham stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
West Ham's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.90 PPG (Chelsea) versus 1.50 (West Ham). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Chelsea, 1 for West Ham and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Dec 2021, ended 2–3 with West Ham winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Chelsea in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at home): BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
West Ham in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at away): BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chelsea 48% versus West Ham 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chelsea 55% | West Ham 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chelsea 1.50 xG and West Ham 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chelsea attack 1.081 / defence 1.394 | West Ham attack 0.790 / defence 1.243. League average goals — home 1.115 / away 1.334. West Ham bring a strong defensive rating of 1.243 — this is suppressing Chelsea's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 Chelsea games / 33 West Ham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chelsea 38% | Draw 24% | West Ham 37%. Fair-value odds: Chelsea 2.63 | Draw 4.17 | West Ham 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.50 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chelsea at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chelsea offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Chelsea 80% | West Ham 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chelsea vs West Ham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stamford Bridge • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Apr 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chelsea 38% | Draw 24% | West Ham 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Chelsea 1.50 / West Ham 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Chelsea attack 1.081 / def 1.394 | West Ham attack 0.790 / def 1.243 | league avg home 1.115 / away 1.334 • Poisson stance: Chelsea (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Chelsea xG
Expected Goals
1.47
West Ham xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chelsea vs West Ham kick off?
Chelsea vs West Ham kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 24 April 2022 at Stamford Bridge.
What was the final score in Chelsea vs West Ham?
Chelsea 1 - 0 West Ham.
Where is Chelsea vs West Ham being played?
The match is being played at Stamford Bridge.
What competition is Chelsea vs West Ham part of?
Chelsea vs West Ham is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Chelsea vs West Ham?
Our statistical model gives Chelsea a 38% chance of winning, West Ham a 37% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Chelsea the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chelsea vs West Ham?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Chelsea and West Ham will score (BTTS).
Will Chelsea vs West Ham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chelsea and West Ham?
Record (1 meetings): Chelsea 0W | Draws 0 | West Ham 1W.
What form are Chelsea and West Ham in?
Chelsea (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. West Ham (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Chelsea's attack at 1.08x the league average against West Ham's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, West Ham's attack versus Chelsea's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Chelsea Win
38%
2.60
24%
4.09
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Chelsea xG
Total xG
2.96
1.47
West Ham xG
2.60
38%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
23%
4.34
22%
4.47
Win to Nil
9%
11.28
8%
12.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 7.6 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.3 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.5 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chelsea vs West Ham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Chelsea and West Ham expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Chelsea and 1.47 for West Ham, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Chelsea vs West Ham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Chelsea come into this having played 31 games, going 18W 8D 5L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-L.
On the other side, West Ham sit at 1.48 PPG from 31 outings (13W 7D 11L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-D across their last five.
Chelsea carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.52 PPG clear of West Ham — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Chelsea's home form reads 7W 5D 3L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.73 PPG return.
Away from home, West Ham have taken 1.20 points per game from 15 outings (5W 3D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chelsea come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Chelsea are averaging 2.13 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; West Ham are on 1.42 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: West Ham in 61%.
Defensively: Chelsea have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chelsea
Current Season
West Ham
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chelsea and West Ham in coming into this match?
Chelsea have gone 18W 8D 5L in their last 31 games (2.00 PPG), while West Ham have gone 13W 7D 11L in their last 31 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chelsea at home or West Ham away?
Chelsea's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chelsea at home: 1.73 PPG; West Ham away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Chelsea or West Ham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chelsea have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, West Ham in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Chelsea have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 May 2024, when Chelsea won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Chelsea's record when hosting West Ham specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Chelsea
1
Draws
2
West Ham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chelsea and West Ham?
From 10 meetings on record, Chelsea have won 7, West Ham have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Chelsea and West Ham last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Chelsea 3-2 West Ham.
Who has won more matches between Chelsea and West Ham?
Chelsea have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chelsea 60%, West Ham 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Chelsea) and 47% (West Ham).
On the defensive side: Chelsea keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; West Ham in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chelsea home games / West Ham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chelsea play West Ham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Chelsea's recent matches and 47% of West Ham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chelsea vs West Ham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Chelsea's recent games and 47% of West Ham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Chelsea edge out West Ham 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chelsea beat West Ham 1-0 at Stamford Bridge, Regular Season - 34, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chelsea 1.50 xG and West Ham 1.47 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. West Ham landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chelsea attack 1.08 / defence 1.39 against West Ham attack 0.79 / defence 1.24, drawn from 31/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chelsea 38% | Draw 24% | West Ham 37%, with Chelsea to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chelsea 55%, West Ham 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chelsea's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.
West Ham's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Chelsea arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.48. Form held, and they took the win. Chelsea (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. West Ham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.