Burnley 1-2 West Ham – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates West Ham at 63% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Burnley vs West Ham encounter.

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Analysis

West Ham make the trip to Turf Moor to face Burnley in Premier League (matchday 13). The match kicks off on Saturday 25 November 2023 at 15:00 UK time.

Form

Burnley (all games): 1W 1D 8L across their last 10 — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Burnley's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 home games (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.

West Ham's record over their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Last five: D L L L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

West Ham's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. West Ham are 0.90 PPG clear of Burnley over their recent games (1.30 vs 0.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Burnley, 0 for West Ham and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Scoring has been limited in the 2 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 17 Apr 2022, ended Burnley 1–1 West Ham — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Burnley goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 50 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).

West Ham goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 50 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burnley 52% versus West Ham 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 60% | West Ham 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 1.22 xG and West Ham 2.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 0.635 / defence 1.581 | West Ham attack 1.106 / defence 1.174. League average goals — home 1.634 / away 1.360. Burnley's attack rating of 0.635 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.22. Burnley's defence rating of 1.581 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing West Ham's projected output up. Data: built from Burnley's last 12 games and West Ham's last 50.

Result probabilities: Burnley 18% | Draw 19% | West Ham 63%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 5.49 | Draw 5.36 | West Ham 1.58. The model has a clear lean to West Ham (63%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.60. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.60 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.22 / 2.38) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is West Ham at 63% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.60 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Burnley's last 10 home games and West Ham's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Burnley 40% (last 10 home games) | West Ham 80% (last 10 away games).

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