Burnley 1-2 Nottingham Forest – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nottingham Forest at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Burnley vs Nottingham Forest fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 38 sees Nottingham Forest travel to Turf Moor to take on Burnley. The game is scheduled for Sunday 19 May 2024, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Burnley have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Burnley have posted 1W 4D 5L at Turf Moor — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nottingham Forest stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Nottingham Forest have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Burnley) versus 0.90 (Nottingham Forest). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Burnley register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Nottingham Forest in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Burnley, 0 for Nottingham Forest and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Burnley trading profile (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Nottingham Forest trading profile (75 games, 37 at away): BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burnley 56% versus Nottingham Forest 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 59% | Nottingham Forest 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 1.30 xG and Nottingham Forest 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 0.652 / defence 1.356 | Nottingham Forest attack 0.833 / defence 1.126. League average goals — home 1.770 / away 1.501. Burnley's attack strength of 0.652 is below the league average — the 1.30 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 37 Burnley games / 75 Nottingham Forest games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burnley 29% | Draw 25% | Nottingham Forest 46%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 3.45 | Draw 4.00 | Nottingham Forest 2.17. Nottingham Forest hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.30 / 1.70) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Nottingham Forest as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nottingham Forest offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.00 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Burnley 60% | Nottingham Forest 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs Nottingham Forest | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Sunday 19 May 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 29% | Draw 25% | Nottingham Forest 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Burnley 1.30 / Nottingham Forest 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 0.652 / def 1.356 | Nottingham Forest attack 0.833 / def 1.126 | league avg home 1.770 / away 1.501 • Poisson stance: Nottingham Forest (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Nottingham Forest xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burnley vs Nottingham Forest kick off?
Burnley vs Nottingham Forest kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 19 May 2024 at Turf Moor.
What was the final score in Burnley vs Nottingham Forest?
Burnley 1 - 2 Nottingham Forest.
Where is Burnley vs Nottingham Forest being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs Nottingham Forest part of?
Burnley vs Nottingham Forest is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs Nottingham Forest?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 29% chance of winning, Nottingham Forest a 46% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Nottingham Forest the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Nottingham Forest?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Burnley and Nottingham Forest will score (BTTS).
Will Burnley vs Nottingham Forest have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Nottingham Forest?
Record (1 meetings): Burnley 0W | Draws 1 | Nottingham Forest 0W.
What form are Burnley and Nottingham Forest in?
Burnley (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Nottingham Forest (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Burnley's attack rating (0.65) and Nottingham Forest's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Nottingham Forest's attack versus Burnley's defence, projects 1.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Nottingham Forest Win
29%
3.48
25%
3.98
46%
2.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Burnley xG
Total xG
3.00
1.70
Nottingham Forest xG
3.48
29%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
2.17
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
18%
5.45
27%
3.67
Win to Nil
5%
18.95
13%
7.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 8.5 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.0 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.2 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs Nottingham Forest?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Burnley and Nottingham Forest expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Burnley and 1.70 for Nottingham Forest, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs Nottingham Forest?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 75 outings, Burnley have picked up 1.49 PPG on a 31W 19D 25L record — D-W-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Nottingham Forest's form line: 17W 20D 38L from 75 games, 0.95 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-L.
Put side by side, Burnley are the form team by 0.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Nottingham Forest.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Burnley have posted 1.57 PPG from 37 outings (17W 7D 13L).
On the road, Nottingham Forest have gone 4W 9D 24L from 37 away games — 0.57 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Burnley come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Burnley are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Nottingham Forest are on 1.13 scored and 1.79 conceded.
Last 75 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Current Season
Nottingham Forest
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burnley and Nottingham Forest in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 31W 19D 25L in their last 75 games (1.49 PPG), while Nottingham Forest have gone 17W 20D 38L in their last 75 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or Nottingham Forest away?
Burnley's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 1.57 PPG; Nottingham Forest away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Burnley and Nottingham Forest runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Apr 2026, when Nottingham Forest won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Burnley's record when hosting Nottingham Forest specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Burnley
2
Draws
2
Nottingham Forest
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Nottingham Forest?
From 4 meetings on record, Burnley have won 0, Nottingham Forest have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Burnley and Nottingham Forest last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Nottingham Forest 4-1 Burnley.
Who has won more matches between Burnley and Nottingham Forest?
Nottingham Forest have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Burnley see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burnley 49%, Nottingham Forest 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Burnley) and 54% (Nottingham Forest). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Burnley keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Nottingham Forest in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / Nottingham Forest away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burnley play Nottingham Forest?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Burnley's recent matches and 51% of Nottingham Forest's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burnley vs Nottingham Forest usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Burnley's matches and 54% of Nottingham Forest's.
Prediction vindicated as Nottingham Forest edge out Burnley 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nottingham Forest beat Burnley 1-2 at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 38, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 1.30 xG and Nottingham Forest 1.70 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 0.65 / defence 1.36 against Nottingham Forest attack 0.83 / defence 1.13, drawn from 37/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burnley 29% | Draw 25% | Nottingham Forest 46%, with Nottingham Forest to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 59%, Nottingham Forest 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burnley's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Nottingham Forest's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Burnley arrived the stronger side — 1.49 PPG against 0.95. Form was overturned, with Nottingham Forest winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Nottingham Forest (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.84 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.16 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.