Burnley 1-1 Manchester United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Manchester United at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Burnley vs Manchester United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Manchester United travel to Turf Moor to take on Burnley. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 8 February 2022, 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Burnley have gone 1W 6D 3L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D L L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Burnley, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Burnley's form when playing at home: 1W 5D 2L across 8 games at Turf Moor this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Manchester United stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Premier League matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Manchester United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Manchester United's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Manchester United's 2.10 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Burnley's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Burnley, 1 for Manchester United and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 30 Dec 2021, ended 1–3 with Manchester United winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Burnley trading profile (19 games, 8 at home): BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 47% of games.
Manchester United trading profile (19 games, 8 at away): BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burnley 53% versus Manchester United 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 42% | Manchester United 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 1.04 xG and Manchester United 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 0.743 / defence 0.993 | Manchester United attack 0.976 / defence 1.195. League average goals — home 1.172 / away 1.299. Burnley's attack strength of 0.743 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 19 Burnley games / 22 Manchester United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burnley 30% | Draw 29% | Manchester United 41%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 3.33 | Draw 3.45 | Manchester United 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Manchester United at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Manchester United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.30 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. This conflicts with form data: Burnley 50% | Manchester United 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs Manchester United | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Tuesday 8 Feb 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 30% | Draw 29% | Manchester United 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Burnley 1.04 / Manchester United 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 0.743 / def 0.993 | Manchester United attack 0.976 / def 1.195 | league avg home 1.172 / away 1.299 • Poisson stance: Manchester United (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Manchester United xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burnley vs Manchester United kick off?
Burnley vs Manchester United kicked off at 20:00 on Tuesday 8 February 2022 at Turf Moor.
What was the final score in Burnley vs Manchester United?
Burnley 1 - 1 Manchester United.
Where is Burnley vs Manchester United being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs Manchester United part of?
Burnley vs Manchester United is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs Manchester United?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 30% chance of winning, Manchester United a 41% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Manchester United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Manchester United?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Burnley and Manchester United will score (BTTS).
Will Burnley vs Manchester United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Manchester United?
Record (1 meetings): Burnley 0W | Draws 0 | Manchester United 1W.
What form are Burnley and Manchester United in?
Burnley (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-D-D. Manchester United (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Burnley's attack rating (0.74) and Manchester United's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.04 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Manchester United's attack versus Burnley's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Manchester United Win
30%
3.29
29%
3.50
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Burnley xG
Total xG
2.30
1.26
Manchester United xG
3.29
30%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
28%
3.52
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
9%
11.60
15%
6.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 12.6 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 6.8 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs Manchester United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Burnley and Manchester United expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Burnley and 1.26 for Manchester United, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs Manchester United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Burnley come into this having played 19 games, going 1W 10D 8L for 0.68 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-D. The sample for Burnley is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Manchester United sit at 1.63 PPG from 19 outings (9W 4D 6L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Manchester United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Manchester United carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.95 PPG clear of Burnley — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Burnley's home form reads 1W 5D 2L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Manchester United have taken 1.50 points per game from 8 outings (3W 3D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Manchester United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Burnley are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Manchester United are on 1.53 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 19 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Blended
Manchester United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burnley and Manchester United in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 1W 10D 8L in their last 19 games (0.68 PPG), while Manchester United have gone 9W 4D 6L in their last 19 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or Manchester United away?
Manchester United's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 1.00 PPG; Manchester United away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Burnley and Manchester United runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 7 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Burnley's record when hosting Manchester United specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Burnley
3
Draws
3
Manchester United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Manchester United?
From 6 meetings on record, Burnley have won 0, Manchester United have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Burnley and Manchester United last play each other?
They last met on 7 January 2026, when Burnley 2-2 Manchester United.
Who has won more matches between Burnley and Manchester United?
Manchester United have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burnley 50%, Manchester United 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Burnley) and 62% (Manchester United).
On the defensive side: Burnley keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Burnley have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / Manchester United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burnley play Manchester United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Burnley's games and 75% of Manchester United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Burnley vs Manchester United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Burnley's recent games and 62% of Manchester United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Burnley and Manchester United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burnley and Manchester United finished level at 1-1 at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 24, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 1.04 xG and Manchester United 1.26 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 0.74 / defence 0.99 against Manchester United attack 0.98 / defence 1.20, drawn from 19/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burnley 30% | Draw 29% | Manchester United 41%, with Manchester United to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 42%, Manchester United 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burnley's trading profile (19 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Manchester United's trading profile (19 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Manchester United arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 0.68. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.