Bournemouth 2-3 Tottenham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Tottenham at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bournemouth vs Tottenham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Vitality Stadium plays host to Bournemouth versus Tottenham in Premier League, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Saturday 29 October 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bournemouth have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Bournemouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bournemouth have posted 4W 4D 2L at Vitality Stadium — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Vitality Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Bournemouth are significantly better at Vitality Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Tottenham's overall Premier League record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: L W W L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Tottenham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Tottenham's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Tottenham arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading Data
Bournemouth goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Tottenham goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 25 at away): BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bournemouth 42% versus Tottenham 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bournemouth 48% | Tottenham 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bournemouth 0.76 xG and Tottenham 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bournemouth attack 0.539 / defence 0.967 | Tottenham attack 1.082 / defence 0.872. League average goals — home 1.609 / away 1.087. Bournemouth's attack strength of 0.539 is below the league average — the 0.76 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 12 Bournemouth games / 50 Tottenham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bournemouth 23% | Draw 34% | Tottenham 43%. Fair-value odds: Bournemouth 4.35 | Draw 2.94 | Tottenham 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.89. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.89 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Tottenham are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Tottenham if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.89 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bournemouth 20% | Tottenham 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bournemouth vs Tottenham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Vitality Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Oct 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bournemouth 23% | Draw 34% | Tottenham 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 37% | xG Bournemouth 0.76 / Tottenham 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Bournemouth attack 0.539 / def 0.967 | Tottenham attack 1.082 / def 0.872 | league avg home 1.609 / away 1.087 • Poisson stance: Tottenham (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.76
Bournemouth xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Tottenham xG
37%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bournemouth vs Tottenham kick off?
Bournemouth vs Tottenham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 29 October 2022 at Vitality Stadium.
What was the final score in Bournemouth vs Tottenham?
Bournemouth 2 - 3 Tottenham.
Where is Bournemouth vs Tottenham being played?
The match is being played at Vitality Stadium.
What competition is Bournemouth vs Tottenham part of?
Bournemouth vs Tottenham is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Bournemouth vs Tottenham?
Our statistical model gives Bournemouth a 23% chance of winning, Tottenham a 43% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Tottenham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bournemouth vs Tottenham?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Bournemouth and Tottenham will score (BTTS).
Will Bournemouth vs Tottenham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bournemouth and Tottenham?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bournemouth and Tottenham in?
Bournemouth (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Tottenham (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Bournemouth's attack at 0.54x the league average against Tottenham's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 0.76 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Tottenham's attack (1.08x) against Bournemouth's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 12/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (15.4%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tottenham Win
23%
4.32
34%
2.98
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.76
Bournemouth xG
Total xG
1.89
1.14
Tottenham xG
4.32
23%
Home win
2.98
34%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.68
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
47%
2.13
Win to Nil
7%
13.48
20%
4.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.0 | 17.1 | 9.7 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.0 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bournemouth vs Tottenham?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.7%.
How many goals are Bournemouth and Tottenham expected to score?
The model projects 0.76 expected goals for Bournemouth and 1.14 for Tottenham, a combined total of 1.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Bournemouth vs Tottenham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bournemouth's recent record stands at 23W 14D 13L from 50 games, a 1.66 PPG return, with D-W-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Bournemouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Tottenham, meanwhile, have gone 29W 7D 14L across 50 games — 1.88 PPG, with L-W-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Tottenham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.66 PPG for Bournemouth against 1.88 for Tottenham. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Bournemouth have managed 13W 7D 5L from 25 games — 1.84 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Tottenham's away record stands at 11W 6D 8L across 25 trips, a 1.56 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bournemouth are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Tottenham are on 1.84 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Bournemouth have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Tottenham in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bournemouth
Blended
Tottenham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bournemouth and Tottenham in coming into this match?
Bournemouth have gone 23W 14D 13L in their last 50 games (1.66 PPG), while Tottenham have gone 29W 7D 14L in their last 50 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bournemouth at home or Tottenham away?
Bournemouth's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bournemouth at home: 1.84 PPG; Tottenham away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Bournemouth or Tottenham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bournemouth have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Tottenham in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 7 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Bournemouth go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bournemouth have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Tottenham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Bournemouth
1
Draws
3
Tottenham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bournemouth and Tottenham?
From 8 meetings on record, Bournemouth have won 4, Tottenham have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bournemouth and Tottenham last play each other?
They last met on 7 January 2026, when Bournemouth 3-2 Tottenham.
Who has won more matches between Bournemouth and Tottenham?
Bournemouth have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bournemouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bournemouth 44%, Tottenham 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Bournemouth) and 44% (Tottenham).
On the defensive side: Bournemouth keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Tottenham in 40%; Bournemouth have failed to score in 28% of games; Tottenham in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bournemouth home games / Tottenham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bournemouth play Tottenham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Bournemouth's recent matches and 40% of Tottenham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bournemouth vs Tottenham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Bournemouth's recent games and 44% of Tottenham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Tottenham edge out Bournemouth 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tottenham beat Bournemouth 2-3 at Vitality Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bournemouth 0.76 xG and Tottenham 1.14 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Bournemouth beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Tottenham outscored their 1.14 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bournemouth attack 0.54 / defence 0.97 against Tottenham attack 1.08 / defence 0.87, drawn from 12/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bournemouth 23% | Draw 34% | Tottenham 43%, with Tottenham to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bournemouth 48%, Tottenham 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bournemouth's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Tottenham's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bournemouth 1.66 PPG, Tottenham 1.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tottenham win broke the near-deadlock. Bournemouth (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Tottenham (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.