Bournemouth 1-1 Newcastle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Newcastle at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bournemouth vs Newcastle encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Newcastle travel to Vitality Stadium to take on Bournemouth. The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 February 2023, 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Bournemouth have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Bournemouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bournemouth have posted 3W 3D 4L at Vitality Stadium — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Bournemouth are significantly better at Vitality Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Newcastle — All Games: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D D W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.30. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Newcastle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Newcastle have gone 4W 5D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Newcastle are 1.80 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Bournemouth have won 0, Newcastle 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Bournemouth trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Newcastle trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bournemouth 41% versus Newcastle 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bournemouth 48% | Newcastle 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bournemouth 0.67 xG and Newcastle 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bournemouth attack 0.742 / defence 1.164 | Newcastle attack 1.088 / defence 0.638. League average goals — home 1.425 / away 1.130. Bournemouth's attack strength of 0.742 is below the league average — the 0.67 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Newcastle's defence strength of 0.638 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 21 Bournemouth games / 59 Newcastle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bournemouth 17% | Draw 28% | Newcastle 55%. Fair-value odds: Bournemouth 5.88 | Draw 3.57 | Newcastle 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Newcastle (55%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Newcastle are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.10 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: Bournemouth 30% | Newcastle 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bournemouth vs Newcastle | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Vitality Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Feb 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bournemouth 17% | Draw 28% | Newcastle 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 38% | xG Bournemouth 0.67 / Newcastle 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Bournemouth attack 0.742 / def 1.164 | Newcastle attack 1.088 / def 0.638 | league avg home 1.425 / away 1.130 • Poisson stance: Newcastle (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.67
Bournemouth xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Newcastle xG
38%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bournemouth vs Newcastle kick off?
Bournemouth vs Newcastle kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 11 February 2023 at Vitality Stadium.
What was the final score in Bournemouth vs Newcastle?
Bournemouth 1 - 1 Newcastle.
Where is Bournemouth vs Newcastle being played?
The match is being played at Vitality Stadium.
What competition is Bournemouth vs Newcastle part of?
Bournemouth vs Newcastle is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Bournemouth vs Newcastle?
Our statistical model gives Bournemouth a 17% chance of winning, Newcastle a 55% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Newcastle the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bournemouth vs Newcastle?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Bournemouth and Newcastle will score (BTTS).
Will Bournemouth vs Newcastle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bournemouth and Newcastle?
Record (1 meetings): Bournemouth 0W | Draws 1 | Newcastle 0W.
What form are Bournemouth and Newcastle in?
Bournemouth (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Newcastle (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.30 | L5 D-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Bournemouth's attack rating (0.74) and Newcastle's defence rating (0.64), the model arrives at 0.67 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Newcastle's attack versus Bournemouth's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 1-1 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Newcastle Win
17%
5.86
28%
3.55
55%
1.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.5%
Away win
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.67
Bournemouth xG
Total xG
2.10
1.43
Newcastle xG
5.86
17%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
1.83
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.64
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
24%
4.18
51%
1.96
Win to Nil
4%
24.49
28%
3.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 17.4 | 12.5 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.8 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bournemouth vs Newcastle?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Bournemouth and Newcastle expected to score?
The model projects 0.67 expected goals for Bournemouth and 1.43 for Newcastle, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Bournemouth vs Newcastle?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bournemouth's recent record stands at 24W 15D 20L from 59 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Bournemouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Newcastle, meanwhile, have gone 23W 20D 16L across 59 games — 1.51 PPG, with D-D-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Newcastle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bournemouth on 1.47 PPG, Newcastle on 1.51. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Bournemouth have managed 14W 8D 7L from 29 games — 1.72 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Newcastle's away record stands at 9W 9D 11L across 29 trips, a 1.24 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bournemouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bournemouth are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Newcastle are on 1.32 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Defensively: Bournemouth have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bournemouth
Blended
Newcastle
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bournemouth and Newcastle in coming into this match?
Bournemouth have gone 24W 15D 20L in their last 59 games (1.47 PPG), while Newcastle have gone 23W 20D 16L in their last 59 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bournemouth at home or Newcastle away?
Bournemouth's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bournemouth at home: 1.72 PPG; Newcastle away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Bournemouth or Newcastle been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bournemouth have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Newcastle in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Jan 2025, when Bournemouth won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bournemouth's record when hosting Newcastle specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Bournemouth
5
Draws
0
Newcastle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bournemouth and Newcastle?
From 8 meetings on record, Bournemouth have won 3, Newcastle have won 0, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Bournemouth and Newcastle last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Newcastle 1-2 Bournemouth.
Who has won more matches between Bournemouth and Newcastle?
Bournemouth have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bournemouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bournemouth 45%, Newcastle 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Bournemouth) and 48% (Newcastle).
On the defensive side: Bournemouth keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Bournemouth have failed to score in 28% of games; Newcastle in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bournemouth home games / Newcastle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bournemouth play Newcastle?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Bournemouth's recent matches and 52% of Newcastle's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bournemouth vs Newcastle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Bournemouth's recent games and 48% of Newcastle's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Bournemouth and Newcastle share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bournemouth and Newcastle finished level at 1-1 at Vitality Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bournemouth 0.67 xG and Newcastle 1.43 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bournemouth attack 0.74 / defence 1.16 against Newcastle attack 1.09 / defence 0.64, drawn from 21/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bournemouth 17% | Draw 28% | Newcastle 55%, with Newcastle to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bournemouth 48%, Newcastle 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bournemouth's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Newcastle's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bournemouth 1.47 PPG, Newcastle 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.