Bournemouth 0-1 Everton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bournemouth at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bournemouth vs Everton encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bournemouth and Everton meet at Vitality Stadium in Premier League, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 2 December 2025 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
Bournemouth's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bournemouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bournemouth at Vitality Stadium this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Vitality Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Bournemouth are significantly better at Vitality Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Everton have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Everton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Everton's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Bournemouth against 1.20 for Everton. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Bournemouth lead 4W to 2W over the last 6 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Jan 2025, ended 1–0 with Bournemouth winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Bournemouth half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Everton half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bournemouth 61% versus Everton 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bournemouth 59% | Everton 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bournemouth 1.30 xG and Everton 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bournemouth attack 1.049 / defence 0.848 | Everton attack 0.861 / defence 0.822. League average goals — home 1.508 / away 1.241. Data: 51 Bournemouth games / 51 Everton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bournemouth 46% | Draw 28% | Everton 26%. Fair-value odds: Bournemouth 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Everton 3.85. Bournemouth hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bournemouth at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bournemouth if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.21 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Bournemouth 40% | Everton 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bournemouth vs Everton | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Vitality Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 2 Dec 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bournemouth 46% | Draw 28% | Everton 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 43% | xG Bournemouth 1.30 / Everton 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Bournemouth attack 1.049 / def 0.848 | Everton attack 0.861 / def 0.822 | league avg home 1.508 / away 1.241 • Poisson stance: Bournemouth (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Bournemouth xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Everton xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bournemouth vs Everton kick off?
Bournemouth vs Everton kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 2 December 2025 at Vitality Stadium.
What was the final score in Bournemouth vs Everton?
Bournemouth 0 - 1 Everton.
Where is Bournemouth vs Everton being played?
The match is being played at Vitality Stadium.
What competition is Bournemouth vs Everton part of?
Bournemouth vs Everton is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Bournemouth vs Everton?
Our statistical model gives Bournemouth a 46% chance of winning, Everton a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bournemouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bournemouth vs Everton?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Bournemouth and Everton will score (BTTS).
Will Bournemouth vs Everton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bournemouth and Everton?
Record (6 meetings): Bournemouth 4W | Draws 0 | Everton 2W.
What form are Bournemouth and Everton in?
Bournemouth (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Everton (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Bournemouth's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Everton's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. Flip it around — Everton's attack (0.86x) against Bournemouth's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 1-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bournemouth Win
46%
2.19
28%
3.53
26%
3.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Bournemouth xG
Total xG
2.21
0.91
Everton xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
3.84
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
27%
3.67
Win to Nil
18%
5.43
7%
14.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 10.0 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.0 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bournemouth vs Everton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Bournemouth and Everton expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Bournemouth and 0.91 for Everton, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Bournemouth vs Everton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 51 outings, Bournemouth have picked up 1.47 PPG on a 20W 15D 16L record — W-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Bournemouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Everton's form line: 16W 18D 17L from 51 games, 1.29 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-L. The sample for Everton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.47 PPG for Bournemouth against 1.29 for Everton. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Bournemouth have posted 1.68 PPG from 25 outings (12W 6D 7L).
On the road, Everton have gone 8W 7D 10L from 25 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bournemouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bournemouth are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Everton are on 1.10 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bournemouth have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 51 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bournemouth
Blended
Everton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bournemouth and Everton in coming into this match?
Bournemouth have gone 20W 15D 16L in their last 51 games (1.47 PPG), while Everton have gone 16W 18D 17L in their last 51 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bournemouth at home or Everton away?
Bournemouth's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bournemouth at home: 1.68 PPG; Everton away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Bournemouth or Everton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bournemouth have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Everton in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bournemouth won 3-0 on 12 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bournemouth have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Everton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Bournemouth
1
Draws
3
Everton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bournemouth and Everton?
From 9 meetings on record, Bournemouth have won 5, Everton have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bournemouth and Everton last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Bournemouth 1-1 Everton.
Who has won more matches between Bournemouth and Everton?
Bournemouth have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bournemouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Everton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bournemouth 44%, Everton 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 36% for Bournemouth and 28% for Everton.
On the defensive side: Bournemouth keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Everton in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bournemouth home games / Everton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bournemouth play Everton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Bournemouth's recent matches and 40% of Everton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bournemouth vs Everton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Bournemouth's recent games and 28% of Everton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bournemouth and Everton tend to score early?
Bournemouth have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Everton in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Everton defy the odds to beat Bournemouth 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton beat Bournemouth 0-1 at Vitality Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bournemouth 1.30 xG and Everton 0.91 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Bournemouth fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bournemouth attack 1.05 / defence 0.85 against Everton attack 0.86 / defence 0.82, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bournemouth 46% | Draw 28% | Everton 26%, with Bournemouth to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Everton win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bournemouth 59%, Everton 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bournemouth's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Everton's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bournemouth 1.47 PPG, Everton 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Everton win broke the near-deadlock. Bournemouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward. Everton (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.