Aston Villa 0-1 Everton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Aston Villa (45%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Aston Villa face Everton.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Everton travel to Villa Park to take on Aston Villa. The game is scheduled for Sunday 18 January 2026, 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Aston Villa stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Premier League matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Aston Villa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Aston Villa's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at Villa Park this term (2.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Premier League games this season, Everton have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Everton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Everton away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Aston Villa carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.50 vs 1.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Aston Villa have dominated this rivalry, winning 7 of 9 past contests while Everton have managed just 0 wins.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The historical record gives Aston Villa a meaningful edge here — 7 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Aston Villa trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Everton trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aston Villa 59% versus Everton 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aston Villa 63% | Everton 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aston Villa 1.28 xG and Everton 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aston Villa attack 1.193 / defence 0.786 | Everton attack 0.824 / defence 0.719. League average goals — home 1.489 / away 1.206. Everton's defence strength of 0.719 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Aston Villa's defence rating of 0.786 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 59 Aston Villa games / 59 Everton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aston Villa 45% | Draw 36% | Everton 19%. Fair-value odds: Aston Villa 2.22 | Draw 2.78 | Everton 5.26. Aston Villa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (36%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Aston Villa are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Aston Villa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.06 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Aston Villa 50% | Everton 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aston Villa vs Everton | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Villa Park • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Jan 2026, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aston Villa 45% | Draw 36% | Everton 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Aston Villa 1.28 / Everton 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Aston Villa attack 1.193 / def 0.786 | Everton attack 0.824 / def 0.719 | league avg home 1.489 / away 1.206 • Poisson stance: Aston Villa (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Aston Villa xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Everton xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aston Villa vs Everton kick off?
Aston Villa vs Everton kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 18 January 2026 at Villa Park.
What was the final score in Aston Villa vs Everton?
Aston Villa 0 - 1 Everton.
Where is Aston Villa vs Everton being played?
The match is being played at Villa Park.
What competition is Aston Villa vs Everton part of?
Aston Villa vs Everton is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Aston Villa vs Everton?
Our statistical model gives Aston Villa a 45% chance of winning, Everton a 19% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Aston Villa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aston Villa vs Everton?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Aston Villa and Everton will score (BTTS).
Will Aston Villa vs Everton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aston Villa and Everton?
Record (9 meetings): Aston Villa 7W | Draws 2 | Everton 0W.
What form are Aston Villa and Everton in?
Aston Villa (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Everton (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Aston Villa's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against Everton's defensive record (0.72x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. The same calculation in reverse, Everton's attack versus Aston Villa's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aston Villa Win
45%
2.23
36%
2.79
19%
5.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Aston Villa xG
Total xG
2.06
0.78
Everton xG
2.23
45%
Home win
2.79
36%
Draw
5.15
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.35
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
20%
4.88
5%
18.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 10.0 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.3 | 12.7 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.4 | 8.1 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aston Villa vs Everton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Aston Villa and Everton expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Aston Villa and 0.78 for Everton, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Aston Villa vs Everton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Aston Villa come into this having played 59 games, going 32W 13D 14L for 1.85 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-D. The sample for Aston Villa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Everton sit at 1.31 PPG from 59 outings (19W 20D 20L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Everton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Aston Villa carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.54 PPG clear of Everton — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Aston Villa's home form reads 19W 8D 2L across 29 games on their own ground, a 2.24 PPG return.
Away from home, Everton have taken 1.31 points per game from 29 outings (10W 8D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Aston Villa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Aston Villa are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Everton are on 1.10 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aston Villa
Blended
Everton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aston Villa and Everton in coming into this match?
Aston Villa have gone 32W 13D 14L in their last 59 games (1.85 PPG), while Everton have gone 19W 20D 20L in their last 59 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aston Villa at home or Everton away?
Aston Villa's home record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aston Villa at home: 2.24 PPG; Everton away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Aston Villa or Everton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Aston Villa have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Everton in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Aug 2023, when Aston Villa won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Aston Villa's record when hosting Everton specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Aston Villa
2
Draws
1
Everton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aston Villa and Everton?
From 10 meetings on record, Aston Villa have won 7, Everton have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Aston Villa and Everton last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Aston Villa 0-1 Everton.
Who has won more matches between Aston Villa and Everton?
Aston Villa have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Aston Villa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Everton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Aston Villa 66%, Everton 34% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Aston Villa) and 24% (Everton).
On the defensive side: Everton in 34%; Everton in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aston Villa home games / Everton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aston Villa play Everton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 66% of Aston Villa's recent matches and 34% of Everton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Aston Villa vs Everton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Aston Villa's recent games and 24% of Everton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Aston Villa and Everton tend to score early?
Aston Villa have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Everton in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Everton defy the odds to beat Aston Villa 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton beat Aston Villa 0-1 at Villa Park, Regular Season - 22, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aston Villa 1.28 xG and Everton 0.78 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Aston Villa fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aston Villa attack 1.19 / defence 0.79 against Everton attack 0.82 / defence 0.72, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aston Villa 45% | Draw 36% | Everton 19%, with Aston Villa to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Everton win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aston Villa 63%, Everton 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aston Villa's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Everton's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Aston Villa arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.31. Form was overturned, with Everton winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Aston Villa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.79 scoring average — below par going forward. Everton (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.