Aston Villa 0-1 Brentford – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Aston Villa (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Aston Villa face Brentford.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Aston Villa host Brentford at Villa Park in Premier League, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 1 February 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Aston Villa have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: L W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Aston Villa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Aston Villa at Villa Park this season: 8W 0D 2L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Brentford stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Brentford, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Brentford have gone 3W 0D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Aston Villa carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.20 vs 1.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Aston Villa have won 4, Brentford 2, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 2.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2025, ended 0–1 with Brentford winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Aston Villa in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Brentford in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aston Villa 57% versus Brentford 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aston Villa 61% | Brentford 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aston Villa 1.86 xG and Brentford 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aston Villa attack 1.131 / defence 0.787 | Brentford attack 0.937 / defence 1.112. League average goals — home 1.478 / away 1.262. Aston Villa's defence rating of 0.787 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 61 Aston Villa games / 61 Brentford games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aston Villa 56% | Draw 28% | Brentford 15%. Fair-value odds: Aston Villa 1.79 | Draw 3.57 | Brentford 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Aston Villa (56%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Aston Villa are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Aston Villa 50% | Brentford 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aston Villa vs Brentford | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Villa Park • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Feb 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aston Villa 56% | Draw 28% | Brentford 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 54% | xG Aston Villa 1.86 / Brentford 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Aston Villa attack 1.131 / def 0.787 | Brentford attack 0.937 / def 1.112 | league avg home 1.478 / away 1.262 • Poisson stance: Aston Villa (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Aston Villa xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Brentford xG
54%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aston Villa vs Brentford kick off?
Aston Villa vs Brentford kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 1 February 2026 at Villa Park.
What was the final score in Aston Villa vs Brentford?
Aston Villa 0 - 1 Brentford.
Where is Aston Villa vs Brentford being played?
The match is being played at Villa Park.
What competition is Aston Villa vs Brentford part of?
Aston Villa vs Brentford is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Aston Villa vs Brentford?
Our statistical model gives Aston Villa a 56% chance of winning, Brentford a 15% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Aston Villa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aston Villa vs Brentford?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Aston Villa and Brentford will score (BTTS).
Will Aston Villa vs Brentford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aston Villa and Brentford?
Record (9 meetings): Aston Villa 4W | Draws 3 | Brentford 2W.
What form are Aston Villa and Brentford in?
Aston Villa (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. Brentford (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Aston Villa's attack rating (1.13) and Brentford's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.86 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Brentford's attack versus Aston Villa's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.6%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aston Villa Win
56%
1.78
28%
3.53
15%
6.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Aston Villa xG
Total xG
2.79
0.93
Brentford xG
1.78
56%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
6.47
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
39%
2.53
16%
6.42
Win to Nil
22%
4.50
2%
41.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.4 | 10.6 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aston Villa vs Brentford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Aston Villa and Brentford expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Aston Villa and 0.93 for Brentford, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Aston Villa vs Brentford?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 61 outings, Aston Villa have picked up 1.84 PPG on a 33W 13D 15L record — L-W-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Aston Villa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Brentford's form line: 26W 11D 24L from 61 games, 1.46 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-L. The sample for Brentford is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Aston Villa on 1.84 PPG, Brentford on 1.46. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Aston Villa have posted 2.17 PPG from 30 outings (19W 8D 3L).
On the road, Brentford have gone 10W 4D 16L from 30 away games — 1.13 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Aston Villa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Aston Villa are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Brentford are on 1.66 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brentford in 61%.
Last 61 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aston Villa
Blended
Brentford
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aston Villa and Brentford in coming into this match?
Aston Villa have gone 33W 13D 15L in their last 61 games (1.84 PPG), while Brentford have gone 26W 11D 24L in their last 61 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aston Villa at home or Brentford away?
Aston Villa's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aston Villa at home: 2.17 PPG; Brentford away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Aston Villa and Brentford runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Brentford go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Oct 2022, when Aston Villa won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Aston Villa's record when hosting Brentford specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Aston Villa
3
Draws
3
Brentford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aston Villa and Brentford?
From 10 meetings on record, Aston Villa have won 4, Brentford have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Aston Villa and Brentford last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Aston Villa 0-1 Brentford.
Who has won more matches between Aston Villa and Brentford?
Aston Villa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Aston Villa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Brentford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Aston Villa 63%, Brentford 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Aston Villa) and 53% (Brentford). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aston Villa home games / Brentford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aston Villa play Brentford?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Aston Villa's games and 53% of Brentford's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Aston Villa vs Brentford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Aston Villa's matches and 53% of Brentford's.
Do Aston Villa and Brentford tend to score early?
Aston Villa have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Brentford in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Brentford defy the odds to beat Aston Villa 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brentford beat Aston Villa 0-1 at Villa Park, Regular Season - 24, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aston Villa 1.86 xG and Brentford 0.93 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Aston Villa fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aston Villa attack 1.13 / defence 0.79 against Brentford attack 0.94 / defence 1.11, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aston Villa 56% | Draw 28% | Brentford 15%, with Aston Villa to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Brentford win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aston Villa 61%, Brentford 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aston Villa's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Brentford's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Aston Villa 1.84 PPG, Brentford 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Brentford win broke the near-deadlock. Aston Villa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.73 scoring average — below par going forward. Brentford (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.