Walsall 0-0 Forest Green – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Walsall at 54% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Walsall face Forest Green.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Poundland Bescot Stadium plays host to Walsall versus Forest Green in League Two (matchday 19). Kick-off: Saturday 25 November 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Form
Walsall (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Walsall have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Walsall are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Forest Green's record over their last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). Last five: W L W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Forest Green away from home: 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Walsall, 0.70 for Forest Green — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Walsall, 1 for Forest Green and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 19 Feb 2022, ended Walsall 1–0 Forest Green — a Walsall win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Walsall goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 63 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Forest Green goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 63 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 54%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Walsall 56% versus Forest Green 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Walsall 43% | Forest Green 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Walsall 1.59 xG and Forest Green 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Walsall attack 0.866 / defence 0.917 | Forest Green attack 0.765 / defence 1.203. League average goals — home 1.528 / away 1.260. Forest Green's defence rating of 1.203 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Walsall's projected output up. Forest Green's attack rating of 0.765 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.88. Data: built from Walsall's last 63 games and Forest Green's last 17.
Result probabilities: Walsall 54% | Draw 25% | Forest Green 21%. Fair-value odds: Walsall 1.85 | Draw 3.98 | Forest Green 4.80. Walsall hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Walsall at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Walsall if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 53%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Walsall 70% (last 10 home games) | Forest Green 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Walsall vs Forest Green | Competition: League Two, matchday 19 | Venue: Poundland Bescot Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 25 November 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Walsall 54% | Draw 25% | Forest Green 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Walsall 1.59 / Forest Green 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Walsall attack 0.866 / def 0.917 | Forest Green attack 0.765 / def 1.203 | league avg home 1.528 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: Walsall (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Walsall xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Forest Green xG
47%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Walsall vs Forest Green FAQs
What time does Walsall vs Forest Green kick off?
Walsall vs Forest Green kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 25 November 2023 at Poundland Bescot Stadium.
What was the final score in Walsall vs Forest Green?
Walsall 0 - 0 Forest Green.
Where is Walsall vs Forest Green being played?
The match is being played at Poundland Bescot Stadium.
What competition is Walsall vs Forest Green part of?
Walsall vs Forest Green is a League Two fixture (matchday 19) (England).
Who is favourite to win Walsall vs Forest Green?
Our statistical model gives Walsall a 54% chance of winning, Forest Green a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Walsall the favourite.
Will both teams score in Walsall vs Forest Green?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Walsall and Forest Green will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Walsall vs Forest Green have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Walsall's attack at 0.87x the league average against Forest Green's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Forest Green's attack (0.77x) against Walsall's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from Walsall's last 63 games and Forest Green's last 17 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 2-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Walsall Win
54%
1.85
25%
3.98
21%
4.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Walsall xG
Total xG
2.48
0.88
Forest Green xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
4.80
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
20%
4.92
Win to Nil
22%
4.48
4%
23.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.4 | 11.8 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.4 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Walsall vs Forest Green Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Walsall vs Forest Green?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Walsall and Forest Green expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Walsall and 0.88 for Forest Green, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Walsall vs Forest Green?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Walsall come into this having played 63 games, going 17W 24D 22L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-L-L.
On the other side, Forest Green sit at 0.65 PPG from 63 outings (10W 11D 42L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-D across their last five.
Walsall carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.54 PPG clear of Forest Green — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Walsall's home form reads 11W 12D 7L across their last 30 home games, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Forest Green have taken 0.57 points per game from their last 30 away games (3W 8D 19L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Walsall come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Walsall are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Forest Green are on 0.81 scored and 1.92 conceded.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Walsall
Blended
Forest Green
Blended
Walsall (Home) vs Forest Green (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Walsall
Blended
Forest Green
Blended
❓ Walsall vs Forest Green Form FAQs
What form are Walsall and Forest Green in coming into this match?
Walsall have gone 17W 24D 22L in their last 63 games (1.19 PPG), while Forest Green have gone 10W 11D 42L in their last 63 (0.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Walsall at home or Forest Green away?
Walsall's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Walsall at home: 1.50 PPG; Forest Green away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Walsall and Forest Green, the earliest from August 2021. All of them came in League Two. The most recent in our data was on 9 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Walsall have gone 0W 1D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Forest Green — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Walsall
1
Draws
2
Forest Green
Recent Meetings
❓ Walsall vs Forest Green H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Walsall and Forest Green?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Walsall have won 1, Forest Green have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Walsall and Forest Green last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 March 2024: Forest Green 2-0 Walsall.
Who has won more matches between Walsall and Forest Green?
Forest Green have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Walsall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Forest Green are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Walsall 57%, Forest Green 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Walsall) and 43% (Forest Green).
On the defensive side: Walsall have failed to score in 30% of games; Forest Green in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Walsall home games / Forest Green away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Walsall vs Forest Green Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Walsall and Forest Green matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Walsall's games and 53% of Forest Green's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Walsall and Forest Green matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Walsall's recent games and 43% of Forest Green's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Walsall and Forest Green matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of Walsall's recent matches and 73% of Forest Green's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Walsall's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Poundland Bescot Stadium, Regular Season - 19, as Walsall and Forest Green drew 0-0 in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Walsall 1.59 xG and Forest Green 0.88 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Walsall fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Forest Green landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Walsall attack 0.87 / defence 0.92 against Forest Green attack 0.77 / defence 1.20, drawn from 63/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Walsall 54% | Draw 25% | Forest Green 21%, with Walsall to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Walsall 43%, Forest Green 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Walsall's trading profile (63 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Forest Green's trading profile (63 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Walsall arrived the stronger side — 1.19 PPG against 0.65. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Walsall (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line. Forest Green (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.97 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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