Tranmere 1-0 Stevenage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Tranmere at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Tranmere vs Stevenage encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 19 as Tranmere welcome Stevenage to Prenton Park. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 1 February 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Tranmere stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 League Two matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Tranmere, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Tranmere's form when playing at home: 7W 0D 3L across 10 games at Prenton Park this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prenton Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all League Two games this season, Stevenage have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Stevenage away from home this season: 0W 4D 6L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Tranmere carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.20 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.50 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Tranmere's 20% rate and Stevenage's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
In-Play Data
Tranmere trading profile (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 15% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time; they fail to score in 37% of games.
Stevenage trading profile (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Tranmere 18% | Stevenage 44%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Tranmere 22% | Stevenage 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tranmere 1.52 xG and Stevenage 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tranmere attack 1.060 / defence 0.991 | Stevenage attack 0.570 / defence 1.380. League average goals — home 1.038 / away 1.132. Stevenage bring a strong defensive rating of 1.380 — this is suppressing Tranmere's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 Tranmere games / 28 Stevenage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tranmere 56% | Draw 30% | Stevenage 13%. Fair-value odds: Tranmere 1.79 | Draw 3.33 | Stevenage 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Tranmere (56%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Tranmere as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 30% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.16 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Tranmere 20% | Stevenage 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tranmere vs Stevenage | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Prenton Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 1 Feb 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tranmere 56% | Draw 30% | Stevenage 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 39% | xG Tranmere 1.52 / Stevenage 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: Tranmere attack 1.060 / def 0.991 | Stevenage attack 0.570 / def 1.380 | league avg home 1.038 / away 1.132 • Poisson stance: Tranmere (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Tranmere xG
Expected Goals
0.64
Stevenage xG
39%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tranmere vs Stevenage kick off?
Tranmere vs Stevenage kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 1 February 2022 at Prenton Park.
What was the final score in Tranmere vs Stevenage?
Tranmere 1 - 0 Stevenage.
Where is Tranmere vs Stevenage being played?
The match is being played at Prenton Park.
What competition is Tranmere vs Stevenage part of?
Tranmere vs Stevenage is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Tranmere vs Stevenage?
Our statistical model gives Tranmere a 56% chance of winning, Stevenage a 13% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Tranmere the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tranmere vs Stevenage?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Tranmere and Stevenage will score (BTTS).
Will Tranmere vs Stevenage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tranmere and Stevenage?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Tranmere and Stevenage in?
Tranmere (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. Stevenage (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Tranmere's attack rating (1.06) and Stevenage's defence rating (1.38), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Stevenage's attack versus Tranmere's defence, projects 0.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.3%), 0-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tranmere Win
56%
1.77
30%
3.31
13%
7.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.3%
Home win
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Tranmere xG
Total xG
2.16
0.64
Stevenage xG
1.77
56%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
7.46
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
53%
1.90
22%
4.56
Win to Nil
30%
3.36
3%
34.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 7.4 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.5 | 11.2 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.3 | 8.5 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.7 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tranmere vs Stevenage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are Tranmere and Stevenage expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Tranmere and 0.64 for Stevenage, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Tranmere vs Stevenage?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Tranmere come into this having played 27 games, going 14W 6D 7L for 1.78 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-L. The sample for Tranmere is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Stevenage sit at 1.04 PPG from 27 outings (6W 10D 11L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Stevenage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Tranmere carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.74 PPG clear of Stevenage — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Tranmere's home form reads 9W 0D 4L across 13 games on their own ground, a 2.08 PPG return.
Away from home, Stevenage have taken 0.54 points per game from 13 outings (1W 4D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.04 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Stevenage's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Tranmere come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Tranmere are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game recently; Stevenage are on 1.00 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Tranmere have seen both teams score in 19% of their recent games.
Defensively: Tranmere have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tranmere
Blended
Stevenage
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tranmere and Stevenage in coming into this match?
Tranmere have gone 14W 6D 7L in their last 27 games (1.78 PPG), while Stevenage have gone 6W 10D 11L in their last 27 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tranmere at home or Stevenage away?
Tranmere's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tranmere at home: 2.08 PPG; Stevenage away: 0.54 PPG.
Have Tranmere or Stevenage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Tranmere have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their recent games, Stevenage in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Tranmere's record when hosting Stevenage specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Tranmere
0
Draws
2
Stevenage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tranmere and Stevenage?
From 4 meetings on record, Tranmere have won 2, Stevenage have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Tranmere and Stevenage last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2023, when Stevenage 0-1 Tranmere.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Tranmere see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Stevenage see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Tranmere 15% BTTS, Stevenage 31%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Tranmere) and 46% (Stevenage).
On the defensive side: Tranmere keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Tranmere have failed to score in 31% of games; Stevenage in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tranmere home games / Stevenage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tranmere play Stevenage?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 15% of Tranmere's recent matches and 31% of Stevenage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Tranmere vs Stevenage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Tranmere's recent games and 46% of Stevenage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Tranmere edge out Stevenage 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tranmere beat Stevenage 1-0 at Prenton Park, Regular Season - 19, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tranmere 1.52 xG and Stevenage 0.64 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tranmere attack 1.06 / defence 0.99 against Stevenage attack 0.57 / defence 1.38, drawn from 27/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tranmere 56% | Draw 30% | Stevenage 13%, with Tranmere to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tranmere 22%, Stevenage 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 31%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tranmere's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 18% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and duly kept one.
Stevenage's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Tranmere arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.04. Form held, and they took the win. Stevenage (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.