Swindon Town 3-0 Oldham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Swindon Town (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Swindon Town face Oldham.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Oldham make the trip to County Ground to face Swindon Town in League Two, Regular Season - 31. The match kicks off on Saturday 7 February 2026 at 12:31 UTC.
Form
Swindon Town (all games): 6W 0D 4L across 10 League Two fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters this season, Swindon Town have posted 5W 3D 2L at County Ground — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Oldham have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Oldham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Oldham's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Swindon Town's favour (1.80 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Swindon Town, who have won 3 of the last 3 meetings against Oldham — a 0D 0W return for the visitors.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2025, ended 2–1 with Swindon Town winning.
The historical record gives Swindon Town a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 3 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Swindon Town — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Oldham — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Swindon Town 52% versus Oldham 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Swindon Town 59% | Oldham 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Swindon Town 1.57 xG and Oldham 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swindon Town attack 1.181 / defence 0.980 | Oldham attack 0.913 / defence 1.050. League average goals — home 1.270 / away 1.204. Data: 75 Swindon Town games / 27 Oldham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Swindon Town 49% | Draw 25% | Oldham 26%. Fair-value odds: Swindon Town 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | Oldham 3.85. Swindon Town hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Swindon Town at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Swindon Town if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Swindon Town 50% | Oldham 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Swindon Town vs Oldham | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: County Ground • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Feb 2026, 12:31 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Swindon Town 49% | Draw 25% | Oldham 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Swindon Town 1.57 / Oldham 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Swindon Town attack 1.181 / def 0.980 | Oldham attack 0.913 / def 1.050 | league avg home 1.270 / away 1.204 • Poisson stance: Swindon Town (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Swindon Town xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Oldham xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Swindon Town vs Oldham kick off?
Swindon Town vs Oldham kicked off at 12:31 on Saturday 7 February 2026 at County Ground.
What was the final score in Swindon Town vs Oldham?
Swindon Town 3 - 0 Oldham.
Where is Swindon Town vs Oldham being played?
The match is being played at County Ground.
What competition is Swindon Town vs Oldham part of?
Swindon Town vs Oldham is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Swindon Town vs Oldham?
Our statistical model gives Swindon Town a 49% chance of winning, Oldham a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Swindon Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Swindon Town vs Oldham?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Swindon Town and Oldham will score (BTTS).
Will Swindon Town vs Oldham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Swindon Town and Oldham?
Record (3 meetings): Swindon Town 3W | Draws 0 | Oldham 0W.
What form are Swindon Town and Oldham in?
Swindon Town (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Oldham (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Swindon Town's attack at 1.18x the league average against Oldham's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.57 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Oldham's attack (0.91x) against Swindon Town's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 75/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.6%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Swindon Town Win
49%
2.05
25%
3.98
26%
3.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Swindon Town xG
Total xG
2.65
1.08
Oldham xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
3.85
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
21%
4.83
Win to Nil
17%
6.01
5%
18.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.0 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Swindon Town vs Oldham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Swindon Town and Oldham expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Swindon Town and 1.08 for Oldham, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Swindon Town vs Oldham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Swindon Town come into this having played 27 games, going 15W 4D 8L for 1.81 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-W. The sample for Swindon Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Oldham sit at 1.30 PPG from 27 outings (8W 11D 8L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Oldham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Swindon Town carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.51 PPG clear of Oldham — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Swindon Town's home form reads 7W 3D 3L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.85 PPG return.
Away from home, Oldham have taken 1.31 points per game from 13 outings (4W 5D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Swindon Town come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Swindon Town are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Oldham are on 1.04 scored and 0.96 conceded.
Defensively: Oldham in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Swindon Town
Blended
Oldham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Swindon Town and Oldham in coming into this match?
Swindon Town have gone 15W 4D 8L in their last 27 games (1.81 PPG), while Oldham have gone 8W 11D 8L in their last 27 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Swindon Town at home or Oldham away?
Swindon Town's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Swindon Town at home: 1.85 PPG; Oldham away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Swindon Town or Oldham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Swindon Town have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Oldham in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Swindon Town won 3-0 on 7 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Swindon Town have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Oldham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
4
Swindon Town
0
Draws
1
Oldham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Swindon Town and Oldham?
From 5 meetings on record, Swindon Town have won 4, Oldham have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Swindon Town and Oldham last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Oldham 3-0 Swindon Town.
Who has won more matches between Swindon Town and Oldham?
Swindon Town have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Swindon Town see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Oldham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Swindon Town 54%, Oldham 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Swindon Town) and 38% (Oldham).
On the defensive side: Swindon Town keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Oldham in 46%; Oldham in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Swindon Town home games / Oldham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Swindon Town play Oldham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Swindon Town's recent matches and 38% of Oldham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Swindon Town vs Oldham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Swindon Town's recent games and 38% of Oldham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Swindon Town and Oldham tend to score early?
Swindon Town have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Oldham in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Swindon Town run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Oldham.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Swindon Town beat Oldham 3-0 at County Ground, Regular Season - 31, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Swindon Town 1.57 xG and Oldham 1.08 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Swindon Town beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Oldham landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swindon Town attack 1.18 / defence 0.98 against Oldham attack 0.91 / defence 1.05, drawn from 75/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Swindon Town 49% | Draw 25% | Oldham 26%, with Swindon Town to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swindon Town 59%, Oldham 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Swindon Town's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Oldham's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Swindon Town arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.30. That form edge translated into the three points. Swindon Town (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Oldham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.