Stockport County 3-0 Sutton Utd – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stockport County at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stockport County vs Sutton Utd fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Stockport County host Sutton Utd at Edgeley Park in League Two, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 29 October 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Stockport County — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 League Two outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Stockport County, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stockport County's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 2L across 8 games at Edgeley Park this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 8 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Edgeley Park.
Across all League Two games this season, Sutton Utd have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sutton Utd, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sutton Utd away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Stockport County at 1.50 PPG versus Sutton Utd's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Stockport County in-play tendencies (15 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Sutton Utd in-play tendencies (15 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stockport County 60% versus Sutton Utd 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stockport County 47% | Sutton Utd 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 1.22 xG and Sutton Utd 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 0.875 / defence 1.074 | Sutton Utd attack 0.914 / defence 1.162. League average goals — home 1.200 / away 1.043. Data: 15 Stockport County games / 62 Sutton Utd games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stockport County 40% | Draw 29% | Sutton Utd 31%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | Sutton Utd 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stockport County are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stockport County offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.24 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Stockport County 50% | Sutton Utd 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stockport County vs Sutton Utd | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Edgeley Park • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Oct 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stockport County 40% | Draw 29% | Sutton Utd 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Stockport County 1.22 / Sutton Utd 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Stockport County attack 0.875 / def 1.074 | Sutton Utd attack 0.914 / def 1.162 | league avg home 1.200 / away 1.043 • Poisson stance: Stockport County (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Stockport County xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Sutton Utd xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stockport County vs Sutton Utd kick off?
Stockport County vs Sutton Utd kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 29 October 2022 at Edgeley Park.
What was the final score in Stockport County vs Sutton Utd?
Stockport County 3 - 0 Sutton Utd.
Where is Stockport County vs Sutton Utd being played?
The match is being played at Edgeley Park.
What competition is Stockport County vs Sutton Utd part of?
Stockport County vs Sutton Utd is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Stockport County vs Sutton Utd?
Our statistical model gives Stockport County a 40% chance of winning, Sutton Utd a 31% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Stockport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stockport County vs Sutton Utd?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Stockport County and Sutton Utd will score (BTTS).
Will Stockport County vs Sutton Utd have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Sutton Utd?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Stockport County and Sutton Utd in?
Stockport County (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Sutton Utd (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Stockport County's attack rating (0.88) and Sutton Utd's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sutton Utd's attack versus Stockport County's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stockport County Win
40%
2.47
29%
3.45
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Stockport County xG
Total xG
2.24
1.02
Sutton Utd xG
2.47
40%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
29%
3.39
Win to Nil
15%
6.88
9%
11.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 10.8 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.2 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.1 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stockport County vs Sutton Utd?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Stockport County and Sutton Utd expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Stockport County and 1.02 for Sutton Utd, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Stockport County vs Sutton Utd?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 15 outings, Stockport County have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 5W 3D 7L record — D-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Stockport County is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sutton Utd's form line: 5W 3D 7L from 15 games, 1.20 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-D. The sample for Sutton Utd is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stockport County on 1.20 PPG, Sutton Utd on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Stockport County have posted 1.50 PPG from 8 outings (3W 3D 2L).
On the road, Sutton Utd have gone 1W 2D 5L from 8 away games — 0.62 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.20 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sutton Utd's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stockport County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Stockport County are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Sutton Utd are on 1.00 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stockport County have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Stockport County have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stockport County
Blended
Sutton Utd
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stockport County and Sutton Utd in coming into this match?
Stockport County have gone 5W 3D 7L in their last 15 games (1.20 PPG), while Sutton Utd have gone 5W 3D 7L in their last 15 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stockport County at home or Sutton Utd away?
Stockport County's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stockport County at home: 1.50 PPG; Sutton Utd away: 0.62 PPG.
Have Stockport County or Sutton Utd been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stockport County have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Sutton Utd in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stockport County and Sutton Utd runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Stockport County go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Dec 2023, when Stockport County won 8-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stockport County's record when hosting Sutton Utd specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Stockport County
0
Draws
0
Sutton Utd
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Sutton Utd?
From 4 meetings on record, Stockport County have won 4, Sutton Utd have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Stockport County and Sutton Utd last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2024, when Sutton Utd 1-3 Stockport County.
Who has won more matches between Stockport County and Sutton Utd?
Stockport County have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Sutton Utd are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stockport County 50%, Sutton Utd 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Stockport County) and 50% (Sutton Utd).
On the defensive side: Stockport County keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Sutton Utd in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stockport County home games / Sutton Utd away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stockport County play Sutton Utd?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Stockport County's recent matches and 38% of Sutton Utd's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stockport County vs Sutton Utd usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Stockport County's recent games and 50% of Sutton Utd's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stockport County and Sutton Utd tend to score early?
Stockport County have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Sutton Utd in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Stockport County run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Sutton Utd.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stockport County beat Sutton Utd 3-0 at Edgeley Park, Regular Season - 17, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stockport County 1.22 xG and Sutton Utd 1.02 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Stockport County beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sutton Utd landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stockport County attack 0.88 / defence 1.07 against Sutton Utd attack 0.91 / defence 1.16, drawn from 15/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stockport County 40% | Draw 29% | Sutton Utd 31%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stockport County 47%, Sutton Utd 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stockport County's trading profile (15 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sutton Utd's trading profile (15 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stockport County 1.20 PPG, Sutton Utd 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stockport County win broke the near-deadlock. Stockport County (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Sutton Utd (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.