Stockport County 2-0 Stevenage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stockport County at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stockport County vs Stevenage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Edgeley Park plays host to Stockport County versus Stevenage in League Two, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off: Saturday 18 February 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Stockport County (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 League Two fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Stockport County's home record at Edgeley Park: 6W 2D 2L from 10 League Two appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Edgeley Park.
Stevenage have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: D W D L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Stevenage's away record: 2W 7D 1L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.00 PPG for Stockport County against 1.70 for Stevenage. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Stockport County lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Aug 2022, ended 1–2 with Stevenage winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Stockport County — key trading statistics (30 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Stevenage — key trading statistics (30 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stockport County 50% versus Stevenage 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stockport County 47% | Stevenage 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 1.22 xG and Stevenage 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 1.131 / defence 0.954 | Stevenage attack 0.912 / defence 0.903. League average goals — home 1.193 / away 1.070. Data: 30 Stockport County games / 75 Stevenage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stockport County 42% | Draw 30% | Stevenage 28%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 2.38 | Draw 3.33 | Stevenage 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stockport County are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stockport County if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.15 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: Stockport County 50% | Stevenage 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stockport County vs Stevenage | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Edgeley Park • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Feb 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stockport County 42% | Draw 30% | Stevenage 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Stockport County 1.22 / Stevenage 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Stockport County attack 1.131 / def 0.954 | Stevenage attack 0.912 / def 0.903 | league avg home 1.193 / away 1.070 • Poisson stance: Stockport County (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Stockport County xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Stevenage xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stockport County vs Stevenage kick off?
Stockport County vs Stevenage kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 18 February 2023 at Edgeley Park.
What was the final score in Stockport County vs Stevenage?
Stockport County 2 - 0 Stevenage.
Where is Stockport County vs Stevenage being played?
The match is being played at Edgeley Park.
What competition is Stockport County vs Stevenage part of?
Stockport County vs Stevenage is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Stockport County vs Stevenage?
Our statistical model gives Stockport County a 42% chance of winning, Stevenage a 28% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Stockport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stockport County vs Stevenage?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Stockport County and Stevenage will score (BTTS).
Will Stockport County vs Stevenage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Stevenage?
Record (1 meetings): Stockport County 0W | Draws 0 | Stevenage 1W.
What form are Stockport County and Stevenage in?
Stockport County (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. Stevenage (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Stockport County's attack rating (1.13) and Stevenage's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Stevenage's attack (0.91x) against Stockport County's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 30/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stockport County Win
42%
2.36
30%
3.37
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Stockport County xG
Total xG
2.15
0.93
Stevenage xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
17%
5.98
8%
12.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 10.9 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.2 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stockport County vs Stevenage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Stockport County and Stevenage expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Stockport County and 0.93 for Stevenage, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Stockport County vs Stevenage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 30 outings, Stockport County have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 14W 6D 10L record — L-D-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Stevenage's form line: 17W 9D 4L from 30 games, 2.00 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.60 PPG for Stockport County against 2.00 for Stevenage. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Stockport County have posted 2.00 PPG from 14 outings (8W 4D 2L).
On the road, Stevenage have gone 4W 8D 2L from 14 away games — 1.43 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Stevenage's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stockport County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Stockport County are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Stevenage are on 1.57 scored and 0.83 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Stockport County have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; Stevenage in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stockport County
Current Season
Stevenage
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stockport County and Stevenage in coming into this match?
Stockport County have gone 14W 6D 10L in their last 30 games (1.60 PPG), while Stevenage have gone 17W 9D 4L in their last 30 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stockport County at home or Stevenage away?
Stockport County's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stockport County at home: 2.00 PPG; Stevenage away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Stockport County or Stevenage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stockport County have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Stevenage in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 13 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Stockport County go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Stockport County won 3-0 on 1 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stockport County have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Stevenage — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Stockport County
0
Draws
4
Stevenage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Stevenage?
From 8 meetings on record, Stockport County have won 4, Stevenage have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Stockport County and Stevenage last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Stockport County 2-0 Stevenage.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stockport County 43%, Stevenage 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Stockport County) and 36% (Stevenage).
On the defensive side: Stockport County keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Stevenage in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stockport County home games / Stevenage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stockport County play Stevenage?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Stockport County's recent matches and 64% of Stevenage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stockport County vs Stevenage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Stockport County's recent games and 36% of Stevenage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stockport County and Stevenage tend to score early?
Stockport County have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Stevenage in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stockport County cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Stevenage.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stockport County beat Stevenage 2-0 at Edgeley Park, Regular Season - 33, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stockport County 1.22 xG and Stevenage 0.93 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Stevenage landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stockport County attack 1.13 / defence 0.95 against Stevenage attack 0.91 / defence 0.90, drawn from 30/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stockport County 42% | Draw 30% | Stevenage 28%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stockport County 47%, Stevenage 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stockport County's trading profile (30 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Stevenage's trading profile (30 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stockport County 1.60 PPG, Stevenage 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stockport County win broke the near-deadlock. Stevenage (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.