Stockport County 2-1 Notts County – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Stockport County at 79% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stockport County vs Notts County encounter.

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Full Analysis

Edgeley Park plays host to Stockport County versus Notts County in League Two, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Friday 22 December 2023 at 19:45 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Stockport County have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W L D D W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Stockport County, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Edgeley Park, Stockport County have gone 8W 2D 0L this season (10 games, 2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Edgeley Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Notts County's overall League Two record this term: 4W 0D 6L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L W L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Notts County, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Notts County's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Form favours the hosts. Stockport County's 2.30 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Notts County's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

Trading Data

Stockport County goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.

Notts County goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Stockport County 54% and Notts County 77% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stockport County 54% | Notts County 73%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 2.86 xG and Notts County 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 1.389 / defence 0.641 | Notts County attack 1.002 / defence 1.333. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.272. Stockport County carry an above-average attack strength of 1.389 — their λ of 2.86 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Notts County bring a strong defensive rating of 1.333 — this is suppressing Stockport County's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Stockport County's defence rating of 0.641 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 68 Stockport County games / 22 Notts County games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Stockport County 79% | Draw 14% | Notts County 7%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 1.27 | Draw 7.14 | Notts County 14.29. The model has a clear lean to Stockport County (79%) — a 72pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.68. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.68 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Stockport County are the pick at 79% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.

The Poisson model projects 3.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Stockport County 20% | Notts County 70%.

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