Stockport County 0-0 Gillingham – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Stockport County at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stockport County vs Gillingham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Gillingham travel to Edgeley Park to take on Stockport County. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 7 March 2023, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stockport County stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 League Two matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Edgeley Park, Stockport County have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Edgeley Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Gillingham — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in League Two this season, Gillingham have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Stockport County) versus 2.00 (Gillingham). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Stockport County's 30% rate and Gillingham's 20% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Trading Patterns
Stockport County in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Gillingham in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 24% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 18% of games (away games); they fail to score in 59% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stockport County 47% versus Gillingham 24%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Stockport County 44% | Gillingham 18%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 1.23 xG and Gillingham 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 1.070 / defence 0.836 | Gillingham attack 0.735 / defence 0.995. League average goals — home 1.159 / away 1.098. Data: 34 Stockport County games / 33 Gillingham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stockport County 49% | Draw 31% | Gillingham 20%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 2.04 | Draw 3.23 | Gillingham 5.00. Stockport County hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Gillingham's lower xG of 0.68 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stockport County are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stockport County offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.91 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 35% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Stockport County 30% | Gillingham 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stockport County vs Gillingham | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Edgeley Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 7 Mar 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stockport County 49% | Draw 31% | Gillingham 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 35% | xG Stockport County 1.23 / Gillingham 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: Stockport County attack 1.070 / def 0.836 | Gillingham attack 0.735 / def 0.995 | league avg home 1.159 / away 1.098 • Poisson stance: Stockport County (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Stockport County xG
Expected Goals
0.68
Gillingham xG
35%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stockport County vs Gillingham kick off?
Stockport County vs Gillingham kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 7 March 2023 at Edgeley Park.
What was the final score in Stockport County vs Gillingham?
Stockport County 0 - 0 Gillingham.
Where is Stockport County vs Gillingham being played?
The match is being played at Edgeley Park.
What competition is Stockport County vs Gillingham part of?
Stockport County vs Gillingham is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Stockport County vs Gillingham?
Our statistical model gives Stockport County a 49% chance of winning, Gillingham a 20% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Stockport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stockport County vs Gillingham?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Stockport County and Gillingham will score (BTTS).
Will Stockport County vs Gillingham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Gillingham?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Stockport County and Gillingham in?
Stockport County (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Gillingham (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Stockport County's attack rating (1.07) and Gillingham's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Gillingham's attack versus Stockport County's defence, projects 0.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (16.4%), 1-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stockport County Win
49%
2.03
31%
3.23
20%
5.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.8%
Draw
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Stockport County xG
Total xG
1.91
0.68
Gillingham xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
5.04
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.83
65%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
51%
1.96
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
25%
3.99
6%
17.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.8 | 10.0 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.3 | 12.3 | 4.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 7.6 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stockport County vs Gillingham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.7%.
How many goals are Stockport County and Gillingham expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Stockport County and 0.68 for Gillingham, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Stockport County vs Gillingham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Stockport County's recent record stands at 16W 7D 11L from 34 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-D in the last five.
Gillingham, meanwhile, have gone 8W 10D 16L across 34 games — 1.00 PPG, with W-W-W-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Stockport County by 0.62 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Gillingham heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Stockport County have managed 9W 5D 3L from 17 games — 1.88 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Gillingham's away record stands at 2W 6D 9L across 17 trips, a 0.71 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stockport County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Stockport County are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Gillingham are on 0.62 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gillingham in 24%.
Defensively: Stockport County have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stockport County
Current Season
Gillingham
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stockport County and Gillingham in coming into this match?
Stockport County have gone 16W 7D 11L in their last 34 games (1.62 PPG), while Gillingham have gone 8W 10D 16L in their last 34 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stockport County at home or Gillingham away?
Stockport County's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stockport County at home: 1.88 PPG; Gillingham away: 0.71 PPG.
Have Stockport County or Gillingham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stockport County have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Gillingham in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stockport County and Gillingham runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Stockport County's record when hosting Gillingham specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Stockport County
3
Draws
1
Gillingham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Gillingham?
From 4 meetings on record, Stockport County have won 0, Gillingham have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stockport County and Gillingham last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2024, when Gillingham 0-0 Stockport County.
Who has won more matches between Stockport County and Gillingham?
Gillingham have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Gillingham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Stockport County 41% BTTS, Gillingham 24%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 35% for Stockport County and 18% for Gillingham.
On the defensive side: Stockport County keep a clean sheet in 59% of their matches; Gillingham in 65%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stockport County home games / Gillingham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stockport County play Gillingham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Stockport County's recent matches and 24% of Gillingham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stockport County vs Gillingham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Stockport County's recent games and 18% of Gillingham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stockport County and Gillingham tend to score early?
Stockport County have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Gillingham in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Stockport County's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Edgeley Park, Regular Season - 22, as Stockport County and Gillingham drew 0-0 in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stockport County 1.23 xG and Gillingham 0.68 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Stockport County fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stockport County attack 1.07 / defence 0.84 against Gillingham attack 0.73 / defence 0.99, drawn from 34/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stockport County 49% | Draw 31% | Gillingham 20%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 31% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stockport County 44%, Gillingham 18%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stockport County's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Gillingham's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 24% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 59% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Stockport County (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward. Gillingham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.