Stevenage 3-1 Walsall – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Stevenage at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stevenage vs Walsall fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
The Lamex Stadium plays host to Stevenage versus Walsall in League Two, Regular Season - 36. Kick-off: Saturday 11 March 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Stevenage's overall League Two record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Stevenage have posted 6W 1D 3L at The Lamex Stadium — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Lamex Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Stevenage are significantly better at The Lamex Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Walsall (all games): 0W 8D 2L across 10 League Two outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: D D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Walsall's away record: 2W 6D 2L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Stevenage 1W, Walsall 1W, 1D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Stevenage half-time and goal-timing data (79 games, 39 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Walsall half-time and goal-timing data (79 games, 39 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 43% versus Walsall 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stevenage 43% | Walsall 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 1.36 xG and Walsall 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 1.292 / defence 0.886 | Walsall attack 0.918 / defence 0.908. League average goals — home 1.163 / away 1.096. Stevenage carry an above-average attack strength of 1.292 — their λ of 1.36 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 79 Stevenage games / 79 Walsall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stevenage 47% | Draw 29% | Walsall 24%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 2.13 | Draw 3.45 | Walsall 4.17. Stevenage hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Stevenage as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stevenage if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Stevenage 30% | Walsall 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Walsall | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: The Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Mar 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 47% | Draw 29% | Walsall 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Stevenage 1.36 / Walsall 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 1.292 / def 0.886 | Walsall attack 0.918 / def 0.908 | league avg home 1.163 / away 1.096 • Poisson stance: Stevenage (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Walsall xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stevenage vs Walsall kick off?
Stevenage vs Walsall kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 11 March 2023 at The Lamex Stadium.
What was the final score in Stevenage vs Walsall?
Stevenage 3 - 1 Walsall.
Where is Stevenage vs Walsall being played?
The match is being played at The Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs Walsall part of?
Stevenage vs Walsall is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Walsall?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 47% chance of winning, Walsall a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Stevenage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Walsall?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Stevenage and Walsall will score (BTTS).
Will Stevenage vs Walsall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Walsall?
Record (3 meetings): Stevenage 1W | Draws 1 | Walsall 1W.
What form are Stevenage and Walsall in?
Stevenage (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Walsall (all comps): 0W-8D-2L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Stevenage's attacking strength (1.29x league average) is weighed against Walsall's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. Flip it around — Walsall's attack (0.92x) against Stevenage's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 79/79 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 0-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stevenage Win
47%
2.13
29%
3.41
24%
4.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Stevenage xG
Total xG
2.25
0.89
Walsall xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
4.22
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
26%
3.91
Win to Nil
19%
5.19
6%
16.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 9.3 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.3 | 12.7 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Walsall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Walsall expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Stevenage and 0.89 for Walsall, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Walsall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Stevenage come into this having played 79 games, going 28W 23D 28L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, Walsall sit at 1.24 PPG from 79 outings (24W 26D 29L), a run that reads D-D-D-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for Stevenage against 1.24 for Walsall. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Stevenage's home form reads 21W 7D 11L across 39 games on their own ground, a 1.79 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.35 PPG overall — Stevenage are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Walsall have taken 0.92 points per game from 39 outings (7W 15D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stevenage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Stevenage are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Walsall are on 1.04 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 79 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Current Season
Walsall
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stevenage and Walsall in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 28W 23D 28L in their last 79 games (1.35 PPG), while Walsall have gone 24W 26D 29L in their last 79 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stevenage at home or Walsall away?
Stevenage's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stevenage at home: 1.79 PPG; Walsall away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Stevenage or Walsall been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Walsall in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stevenage have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Walsall — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Stevenage
1
Draws
1
Walsall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Walsall?
From 4 meetings on record, Stevenage have won 2, Walsall have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and Walsall last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2023, when Stevenage 3-1 Walsall.
Who has won more matches between Stevenage and Walsall?
Stevenage have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Walsall see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stevenage 38%, Walsall 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Stevenage) and 31% (Walsall).
On the defensive side: Stevenage keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Walsall in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Walsall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stevenage play Walsall?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Stevenage's recent matches and 46% of Walsall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stevenage vs Walsall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Stevenage's recent games and 31% of Walsall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stevenage and Walsall tend to score early?
Stevenage have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Walsall in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stevenage cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Walsall.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stevenage beat Walsall 3-1 at The Lamex Stadium, Regular Season - 36, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 1.36 xG and Walsall 0.89 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Stevenage beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 1.29 / defence 0.89 against Walsall attack 0.92 / defence 0.91, drawn from 79/79 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stevenage 47% | Draw 29% | Walsall 24%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 43%, Walsall 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stevenage's trading profile (79 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Walsall's trading profile (79 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stevenage 1.35 PPG, Walsall 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stevenage win broke the near-deadlock. Stevenage (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.49 average — above their attacking norm. Walsall (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.