Stevenage 1-0 Gillingham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stevenage at 72% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stevenage vs Gillingham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Gillingham travel to The Lamex Stadium to take on Stevenage. The game is scheduled for Monday 2 January 2023, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Stevenage — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 League Two outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Stevenage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Stevenage have posted 8W 1D 1L at The Lamex Stadium — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Lamex Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Stevenage are significantly better at The Lamex Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gillingham stand at 0W 3D 7L from 10 League Two matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Gillingham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League Two this season, Gillingham have posted 0W 4D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Stevenage have the edge — a 1.40 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Stevenage's 30% rate and Gillingham's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Stevenage have won 0, Gillingham 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Oct 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Stevenage in-play tendencies (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Gillingham in-play tendencies (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 44% versus Gillingham 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Stevenage 44% | Gillingham 26%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 1.84 xG and Gillingham 0.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 1.329 / defence 0.705 | Gillingham attack 0.545 / defence 1.152. League average goals — home 1.201 / away 1.105. Stevenage carry an above-average attack strength of 1.329 — their λ of 1.84 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Stevenage's defence rating of 0.705 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 69 Stevenage games / 22 Gillingham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stevenage 72% | Draw 20% | Gillingham 8%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 1.39 | Draw 5.00 | Gillingham 12.50. The model has a clear lean to Stevenage (72%) — a 64pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 29% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No has firm model support at 71% — Gillingham's lower xG of 0.42 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 29%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stevenage are the pick at 72% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.26 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 29%. Form rates corroborate: Stevenage 30% | Gillingham 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Gillingham | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: The Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 2 Jan 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 72% | Draw 20% | Gillingham 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 29% | xG Stevenage 1.84 / Gillingham 0.42 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 1.329 / def 0.705 | Gillingham attack 0.545 / def 1.152 | league avg home 1.201 / away 1.105 • Poisson stance: Stevenage (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
0.42
Gillingham xG
29%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stevenage vs Gillingham kick off?
Stevenage vs Gillingham kicked off at 15:00 on Monday 2 January 2023 at The Lamex Stadium.
What was the final score in Stevenage vs Gillingham?
Stevenage 1 - 0 Gillingham.
Where is Stevenage vs Gillingham being played?
The match is being played at The Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs Gillingham part of?
Stevenage vs Gillingham is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Gillingham?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 72% chance of winning, Gillingham a 8% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Stevenage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Gillingham?
Our model estimates a 29% probability that both Stevenage and Gillingham will score (BTTS).
Will Stevenage vs Gillingham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Gillingham?
Record (1 meetings): Stevenage 0W | Draws 1 | Gillingham 0W.
What form are Stevenage and Gillingham in?
Stevenage (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-D-D-W. Gillingham (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Stevenage's attack rating (1.33) and Gillingham's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.84 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Gillingham's attack versus Stevenage's defence, projects 0.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 69/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (17.6%), 0-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stevenage Win
72%
1.39
20%
4.94
8%
12.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
17.6%
Home win
3 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Stevenage xG
Total xG
2.26
0.42
Gillingham xG
1.39
72%
Home win
4.94
20%
Draw
12.87
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
29%
BTTS Yes
3.44
71%
BTTS No
1.41
Clean Sheet
65%
1.53
16%
6.28
Win to Nil
47%
2.13
1%
80.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 4.4 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 19.1 | 8.1 | 1.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 2 | 17.6 | 7.5 | 1.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 3 | 10.8 | 4.6 | 1.0 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Gillingham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.1%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Gillingham expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Stevenage and 0.42 for Gillingham, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Gillingham?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 68 outings, Stevenage have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 24W 20D 24L record — D-W-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Stevenage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gillingham's form line: 10W 24D 34L from 68 games, 0.79 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-L. The sample for Gillingham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Stevenage are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Gillingham.
Venue Form
On home soil, Stevenage have posted 1.79 PPG from 34 outings (18W 7D 9L). That's noticeably better than their 1.35 PPG overall — Stevenage are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Gillingham have gone 4W 12D 18L from 34 away games — 0.71 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stevenage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Stevenage are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Gillingham are on 0.62 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 68 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Blended
Gillingham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stevenage and Gillingham in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 24W 20D 24L in their last 68 games (1.35 PPG), while Gillingham have gone 10W 24D 34L in their last 68 (0.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stevenage at home or Gillingham away?
Stevenage's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stevenage at home: 1.79 PPG; Gillingham away: 0.71 PPG.
Have Stevenage or Gillingham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Gillingham in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Stevenage
1
Draws
0
Gillingham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Gillingham?
From 2 meetings on record, Stevenage have won 1, Gillingham have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and Gillingham last play each other?
They last met on 2 January 2023, when Stevenage 1-0 Gillingham.
Who has won more matches between Stevenage and Gillingham?
Stevenage have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Gillingham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stevenage 41%, Gillingham 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Stevenage) and 29% (Gillingham).
On the defensive side: Stevenage keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Gillingham in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Gillingham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stevenage play Gillingham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Stevenage's recent matches and 47% of Gillingham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stevenage vs Gillingham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Stevenage's recent games and 29% of Gillingham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stevenage and Gillingham tend to score early?
Stevenage have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Gillingham in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Stevenage edge out Gillingham 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stevenage beat Gillingham 1-0 at The Lamex Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 1.84 xG and Gillingham 0.42 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Stevenage fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 1.33 / defence 0.70 against Gillingham attack 0.55 / defence 1.15, drawn from 69/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stevenage 72% | Draw 20% | Gillingham 8%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 72%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 29% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 44%, Gillingham 26%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stevenage's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Gillingham's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Stevenage arrived the stronger side — 1.35 PPG against 0.79. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Stevenage (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.