Stevenage 2-3 Bradford – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stevenage at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stevenage vs Bradford encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Bradford travel to The Lamex Stadium to take on Stevenage. The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 February 2023, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Stevenage have gone 5W 5D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.30 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Stevenage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stevenage's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at The Lamex Stadium this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Lamex Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Stevenage are significantly better at The Lamex Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Bradford — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Bradford, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League Two this season, Bradford have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Stevenage carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Stevenage's 20% rate and Bradford's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
The previous 3 encounters between these sides heavily favour Bradford, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Stevenage.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2022, ended 0–3 with Bradford winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Bradford have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Stevenage trading profile (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Bradford trading profile (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 42% versus Bradford 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stevenage 42% | Bradford 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 1.26 xG and Bradford 0.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 1.345 / defence 0.674 | Bradford attack 0.859 / defence 0.775. League average goals — home 1.213 / away 1.048. Stevenage carry an above-average attack strength of 1.345 — their λ of 1.26 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Bradford's defence strength of 0.775 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Stevenage's defence rating of 0.674 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 73 Stevenage games / 73 Bradford games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stevenage 52% | Draw 30% | Bradford 18%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 1.92 | Draw 3.33 | Bradford 5.56. Stevenage hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.87. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.87 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Bradford's lower xG of 0.61 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Analysis Verdict
Bradford lead the H2H ledger, but Stevenage carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Stevenage are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stevenage offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.87 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 29% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 33%. Form rates corroborate: Stevenage 20% | Bradford 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Bradford | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: The Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Feb 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 52% | Draw 30% | Bradford 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 33% | xG Stevenage 1.26 / Bradford 0.61 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 1.345 / def 0.674 | Bradford attack 0.859 / def 0.775 | league avg home 1.213 / away 1.048 • Poisson stance: Stevenage (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
0.61
Bradford xG
33%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stevenage vs Bradford kick off?
Stevenage vs Bradford kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 11 February 2023 at The Lamex Stadium.
What was the final score in Stevenage vs Bradford?
Stevenage 2 - 3 Bradford.
Where is Stevenage vs Bradford being played?
The match is being played at The Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs Bradford part of?
Stevenage vs Bradford is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Bradford?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 52% chance of winning, Bradford a 18% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Stevenage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Bradford?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Stevenage and Bradford will score (BTTS).
Will Stevenage vs Bradford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Bradford?
Record (3 meetings): Stevenage 0W | Draws 0 | Bradford 3W.
What form are Stevenage and Bradford in?
Stevenage (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. Bradford (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Stevenage's attack at 1.34x the league average against Bradford's defence at 0.78x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bradford's attack versus Stevenage's defence, projects 0.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (16.9%), 1-1 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stevenage Win
52%
1.91
30%
3.37
18%
5.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.4%
Draw
2 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Stevenage xG
Total xG
1.87
0.61
Bradford xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
5.60
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.06
67%
BTTS No
1.48
Clean Sheet
54%
1.83
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
29%
3.50
5%
19.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.4 | 9.3 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.5 | 11.8 | 3.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.3 | 7.5 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Bradford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.9%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Bradford expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Stevenage and 0.61 for Bradford, a combined total of 1.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Bradford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 73 outings, Stevenage have picked up 1.41 PPG on a 27W 22D 24L record — W-W-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Stevenage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bradford's form line: 25W 25D 23L from 73 games, 1.37 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-D. The sample for Bradford is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stevenage on 1.41 PPG, Bradford on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Stevenage have posted 1.86 PPG from 36 outings (20W 7D 9L). That's noticeably better than their 1.41 PPG overall — Stevenage are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Bradford have gone 14W 9D 13L from 36 away games — 1.42 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stevenage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Stevenage are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Bradford are on 1.16 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 73 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Blended
Bradford
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stevenage and Bradford in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 27W 22D 24L in their last 73 games (1.41 PPG), while Bradford have gone 25W 25D 23L in their last 73 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stevenage at home or Bradford away?
Stevenage's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stevenage at home: 1.86 PPG; Bradford away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Stevenage or Bradford been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Bradford in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Aug 2021, when Bradford won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stevenage's record when hosting Bradford specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Stevenage
1
Draws
4
Bradford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Bradford?
From 6 meetings on record, Stevenage have won 1, Bradford have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and Bradford last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Bradford 0-1 Stevenage.
Who has won more matches between Stevenage and Bradford?
Bradford have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Bradford see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stevenage 39%, Bradford 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Stevenage) and 42% (Bradford).
On the defensive side: Stevenage keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Bradford in 33%; Bradford in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Bradford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stevenage play Bradford?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Stevenage's recent matches and 42% of Bradford's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stevenage vs Bradford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Stevenage's recent games and 42% of Bradford's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stevenage and Bradford tend to score early?
Stevenage have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Bradford in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bradford defy the odds to beat Stevenage 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bradford beat Stevenage 2-3 at The Lamex Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 1.26 xG and Bradford 0.61 xG, a combined 1.87. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Bradford outscored their 0.61 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 1.34 / defence 0.67 against Bradford attack 0.86 / defence 0.78, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stevenage 52% | Draw 30% | Bradford 18%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Bradford win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 42%, Bradford 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stevenage's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Bradford's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stevenage 1.41 PPG, Bradford 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bradford win broke the near-deadlock. Stevenage (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bradford (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.