Salford City 3-1 Wrexham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Wrexham at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Salford City vs Wrexham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Salford City host Wrexham at The Peninsula Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 3 February 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Salford City have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L D W D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Salford City at The Peninsula Stadium this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wrexham stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 League Two matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Wrexham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wrexham's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Wrexham — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Salford City, 1 for Wrexham and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 Oct 2023, ended 2–3 with Wrexham winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Salford City in-play and half-time data (27 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Wrexham in-play and half-time data (27 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Salford City 59% versus Wrexham 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Salford City 67% | Wrexham 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Salford City 1.22 xG and Wrexham 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salford City attack 0.848 / defence 1.480 | Wrexham attack 0.728 / defence 0.950. League average goals — home 1.508 / away 1.349. Data: 75 Salford City games / 27 Wrexham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Salford City 31% | Draw 26% | Wrexham 42%. Fair-value odds: Salford City 3.23 | Draw 3.85 | Wrexham 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wrexham are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wrexham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Salford City 70% | Wrexham 30%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Salford City vs Wrexham | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: The Peninsula Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Feb 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Salford City 31% | Draw 26% | Wrexham 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Salford City 1.22 / Wrexham 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Salford City attack 0.848 / def 1.480 | Wrexham attack 0.728 / def 0.950 | league avg home 1.508 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Wrexham (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Salford City xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Wrexham xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Salford City vs Wrexham kick off?
Salford City vs Wrexham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 3 February 2024 at The Peninsula Stadium.
What was the final score in Salford City vs Wrexham?
Salford City 3 - 1 Wrexham.
Where is Salford City vs Wrexham being played?
The match is being played at The Peninsula Stadium.
What competition is Salford City vs Wrexham part of?
Salford City vs Wrexham is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Salford City vs Wrexham?
Our statistical model gives Salford City a 31% chance of winning, Wrexham a 42% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Wrexham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Salford City vs Wrexham?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Salford City and Wrexham will score (BTTS).
Will Salford City vs Wrexham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Salford City and Wrexham?
Record (1 meetings): Salford City 0W | Draws 0 | Wrexham 1W.
What form are Salford City and Wrexham in?
Salford City (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. Wrexham (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Salford City's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Wrexham's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. The same calculation in reverse, Wrexham's attack versus Salford City's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 75/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wrexham Win
31%
3.19
26%
3.81
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Salford City xG
Total xG
2.67
1.45
Wrexham xG
3.19
31%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
23%
4.28
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
7%
13.63
13%
7.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 10.1 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.3 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.4 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Salford City vs Wrexham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Salford City and Wrexham expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Salford City and 1.45 for Wrexham, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Salford City vs Wrexham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 27 outings, Salford City have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 7W 6D 14L record — L-D-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Salford City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wrexham's form line: 15W 7D 5L from 27 games, 1.93 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-L. The sample for Wrexham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Wrexham are the form team by 0.93 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Salford City.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Salford City have posted 0.75 PPG from 12 outings (2W 3D 7L).
On the road, Wrexham have gone 4W 4D 4L from 12 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.93 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Wrexham's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wrexham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Salford City are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; Wrexham are on 2.00 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Defensively: Wrexham in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Salford City
Blended
Wrexham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Salford City and Wrexham in coming into this match?
Salford City have gone 7W 6D 14L in their last 27 games (1.00 PPG), while Wrexham have gone 15W 7D 5L in their last 27 (1.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Salford City at home or Wrexham away?
Wrexham's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Salford City at home: 0.75 PPG; Wrexham away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Salford City or Wrexham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Salford City have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Wrexham in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Salford City and Wrexham runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Salford City
0
Draws
1
Wrexham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Salford City and Wrexham?
From 2 meetings on record, Salford City have won 1, Wrexham have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Salford City and Wrexham last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2024, when Salford City 3-1 Wrexham.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Salford City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Wrexham see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Salford City 75%, Wrexham 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 83% (Salford City) and 25% (Wrexham).
On the defensive side: Wrexham in 42%; Wrexham in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Salford City home games / Wrexham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Salford City play Wrexham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Salford City's recent matches and 33% of Wrexham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Salford City vs Wrexham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 83% of Salford City's recent games and 25% of Wrexham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Salford City and Wrexham tend to score early?
Salford City have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Wrexham in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Salford City cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Wrexham.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Salford City beat Wrexham 3-1 at The Peninsula Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Salford City 1.22 xG and Wrexham 1.45 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Salford City beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salford City attack 0.85 / defence 1.48 against Wrexham attack 0.73 / defence 0.95, drawn from 75/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Salford City 31% | Draw 26% | Wrexham 42%, with Wrexham to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Salford City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salford City 67%, Wrexham 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Salford City's trading profile (27 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Wrexham's trading profile (27 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Wrexham arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Salford City winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Salford City (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line. Wrexham (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.