Salford City 3-1 Wrexham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Wrexham at 42% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Salford City vs Wrexham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Salford City host Wrexham at The Peninsula Stadium in League Two (matchday 31). Kick-off is Saturday 3 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Salford City have gone 2W 4D 4L — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L D W D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Salford City at home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Wrexham stand at 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Wrexham's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Wrexham — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Salford City, 1 for Wrexham and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 5.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 14 Oct 2023, ended Salford City 2–3 Wrexham — a Wrexham win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Salford City in-play and half-time data (last 27 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 92% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 60%; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Wrexham in-play and half-time data (last 27 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Salford City 59% versus Wrexham 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Salford City 67% | Wrexham 52%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Salford City surrender their half-time lead 60% of the time, while Wrexham have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Salford City 1.22 xG and Wrexham 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salford City attack 0.848 / defence 1.480 | Wrexham attack 0.728 / defence 0.950. League average goals — home 1.508 / away 1.349. Wrexham's attack rating of 0.728 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.45. Salford City's defence rating of 1.480 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Wrexham's projected output up. Data: built from Salford City's last 75 games and Wrexham's last 27.
Result probabilities: Salford City 31% | Draw 26% | Wrexham 42%. Fair-value odds: Salford City 3.19 | Draw 3.81 | Wrexham 2.36. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wrexham are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wrexham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (Salford City's last 10 home games and Wrexham's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Salford City 70% (last 10 home games) | Wrexham 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Salford City vs Wrexham | Competition: League Two, matchday 31 | Venue: The Peninsula Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 3 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Salford City 31% | Draw 26% | Wrexham 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Salford City 1.22 / Wrexham 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Salford City attack 0.848 / def 1.480 | Wrexham attack 0.728 / def 0.950 | league avg home 1.508 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Wrexham (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Salford City xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Wrexham xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Salford City vs Wrexham FAQs
What time does Salford City vs Wrexham kick off?
Salford City vs Wrexham kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 3 February 2024 at The Peninsula Stadium.
What was the final score in Salford City vs Wrexham?
Salford City 3 - 1 Wrexham.
Where is Salford City vs Wrexham being played?
The match is being played at The Peninsula Stadium.
What competition is Salford City vs Wrexham part of?
Salford City vs Wrexham is a League Two fixture (matchday 31) (England).
Who is favourite to win Salford City vs Wrexham?
Our statistical model gives Salford City a 31% chance of winning, Wrexham a 42% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Wrexham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Salford City vs Wrexham?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Salford City and Wrexham will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Salford City vs Wrexham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Salford City's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Wrexham's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. The same calculation in reverse, Wrexham's attack versus Salford City's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Salford City's last 75 games and Wrexham's last 27 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wrexham Win
31%
3.19
26%
3.81
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Salford City xG
Total xG
2.67
1.45
Wrexham xG
3.19
31%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
23%
4.28
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
7%
13.63
13%
7.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 10.1 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.3 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.4 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Salford City vs Wrexham Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Salford City vs Wrexham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Salford City and Wrexham expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Salford City and 1.45 for Wrexham, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Salford City vs Wrexham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 27 outings, Salford City have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 7W 6D 14L record — L-D-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Wrexham's form line: 15W 7D 5L from 27 games, 1.93 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-L.
Put side by side, Wrexham are the form team by 0.93 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Salford City.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Salford City have posted 0.75 PPG from their last 12 home games (2W 3D 7L).
On the road, Wrexham have gone 4W 4D 4L from their last 12 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.93 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Wrexham's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wrexham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Salford City are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; Wrexham are on 2.00 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Defensively: Wrexham in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Salford City
Blended
Wrexham
Blended
Salford City (Home) vs Wrexham (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Salford City
Blended
Wrexham
Blended
❓ Salford City vs Wrexham Form FAQs
What form are Salford City and Wrexham in coming into this match?
Salford City have gone 7W 6D 14L in their last 27 games (1.00 PPG), while Wrexham have gone 15W 7D 5L in their last 27 (1.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Salford City at home or Wrexham away?
Wrexham's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Salford City at home: 0.75 PPG; Wrexham away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Salford City or Wrexham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Salford City have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Wrexham in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2023. All of them came in League Two. The most recent in our data was on 3 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Salford City
0
Draws
1
Wrexham
Recent Meetings
❓ Salford City vs Wrexham H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Salford City and Wrexham?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Salford City have won 1, Wrexham have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Salford City and Wrexham last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 February 2024: Salford City 3-1 Wrexham.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Salford City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Wrexham see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Salford City 75%, Wrexham 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 83% (Salford City) and 25% (Wrexham).
On the defensive side: Wrexham in 42%; Wrexham in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Salford City home games / Wrexham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Salford City vs Wrexham Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Salford City and Wrexham matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Salford City's recent matches and 33% of Wrexham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Salford City and Wrexham matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 83% of Salford City's recent games and 25% of Wrexham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Salford City and Wrexham matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 92% of Salford City's recent matches and 58% of Wrexham's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Salford City cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Wrexham.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Salford City beat Wrexham 3-1 at The Peninsula Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Salford City 1.22 xG and Wrexham 1.45 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Salford City beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salford City attack 0.85 / defence 1.48 against Wrexham attack 0.73 / defence 0.95, drawn from 75/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Salford City 31% | Draw 26% | Wrexham 42%, with Wrexham to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Salford City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salford City 67%, Wrexham 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Salford City's trading profile (27 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Wrexham's trading profile (27 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Wrexham arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Salford City winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Salford City (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line. Wrexham (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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