Salford City 0-1 Colchester – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Salford City at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Salford City vs Colchester encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Salford City host Colchester at The Peninsula Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 42. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 15 April 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Salford City stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 League Two matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Salford City's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at The Peninsula Stadium this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Colchester — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in League Two this season, Colchester have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Salford City have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Salford City have won 1, Colchester 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Jan 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Salford City in-play tendencies (87 games, 43 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Colchester in-play tendencies (87 games, 43 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Salford City 53% versus Colchester 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Salford City 44% | Colchester 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Salford City 1.28 xG and Colchester 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salford City attack 1.073 / defence 1.105 | Colchester attack 0.965 / defence 0.984. League average goals — home 1.217 / away 1.058. Data: 87 Salford City games / 87 Colchester games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Salford City 38% | Draw 31% | Colchester 31%. Fair-value odds: Salford City 2.63 | Draw 3.23 | Colchester 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Salford City are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Salford City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Salford City 70% | Colchester 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Salford City vs Colchester | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 42 | Venue: The Peninsula Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Apr 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Salford City 38% | Draw 31% | Colchester 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 51% | xG Salford City 1.28 / Colchester 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Salford City attack 1.073 / def 1.105 | Colchester attack 0.965 / def 0.984 | league avg home 1.217 / away 1.058 • Poisson stance: Salford City (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Salford City xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Colchester xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Salford City vs Colchester kick off?
Salford City vs Colchester kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 15 April 2023 at The Peninsula Stadium.
What was the final score in Salford City vs Colchester?
Salford City 0 - 1 Colchester.
Where is Salford City vs Colchester being played?
The match is being played at The Peninsula Stadium.
What competition is Salford City vs Colchester part of?
Salford City vs Colchester is a Regular Season - 42 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Salford City vs Colchester?
Our statistical model gives Salford City a 38% chance of winning, Colchester a 31% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Salford City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Salford City vs Colchester?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Salford City and Colchester will score (BTTS).
Will Salford City vs Colchester have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Salford City and Colchester?
Record (3 meetings): Salford City 1W | Draws 1 | Colchester 1W.
What form are Salford City and Colchester in?
Salford City (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Colchester (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Salford City's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Colchester's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. The same calculation in reverse, Colchester's attack versus Salford City's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 87/87 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Salford City Win
38%
2.60
31%
3.26
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Salford City xG
Total xG
2.41
1.13
Colchester xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
28%
3.61
Win to Nil
12%
8.04
9%
11.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 10.1 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.0 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Salford City vs Colchester?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Salford City and Colchester expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Salford City and 1.13 for Colchester, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Salford City vs Colchester?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Salford City's recent record stands at 38W 22D 27L from 87 games, a 1.56 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-W in the last five.
Colchester, meanwhile, have gone 24W 25D 38L across 87 games — 1.11 PPG, with D-D-D-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Salford City by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Colchester heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Salford City have managed 19W 14D 10L from 43 games — 1.65 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Colchester's away record stands at 13W 7D 23L across 43 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Salford City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Salford City are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Colchester are on 1.00 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 87 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Salford City
Current Season
Colchester
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Salford City and Colchester in coming into this match?
Salford City have gone 38W 22D 27L in their last 87 games (1.56 PPG), while Colchester have gone 24W 25D 38L in their last 87 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Salford City at home or Colchester away?
Salford City's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Salford City at home: 1.65 PPG; Colchester away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Salford City or Colchester been keeping clean sheets recently?
Salford City have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Colchester in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Salford City and Colchester runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Salford City go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Jan 2022, when Colchester won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Salford City's record when hosting Colchester specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Salford City
2
Draws
3
Colchester
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Salford City and Colchester?
From 10 meetings on record, Salford City have won 5, Colchester have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Salford City and Colchester last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Colchester 0-1 Salford City.
Who has won more matches between Salford City and Colchester?
Salford City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Salford City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Colchester are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Salford City 51%, Colchester 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Salford City) and 46% (Colchester).
On the defensive side: Salford City keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Colchester in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Salford City home games / Colchester away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Salford City play Colchester?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of Salford City's recent matches and 44% of Colchester's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Salford City vs Colchester usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Salford City's recent games and 46% of Colchester's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Salford City and Colchester tend to score early?
Salford City have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Colchester in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Colchester defy the odds to beat Salford City 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Colchester beat Salford City 0-1 at The Peninsula Stadium, Regular Season - 42, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Salford City 1.28 xG and Colchester 1.13 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Salford City fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salford City attack 1.07 / defence 1.10 against Colchester attack 0.96 / defence 0.98, drawn from 87/87 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Salford City 38% | Draw 31% | Colchester 31%, with Salford City to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Colchester win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salford City 44%, Colchester 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Salford City's trading profile (87 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Colchester's trading profile (87 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Salford City arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 1.11. Form was overturned, with Colchester winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Salford City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward. Colchester (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.