Salford City 4-1 Colchester – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Colchester at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Salford City face Colchester.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Salford City host Colchester at The Peninsula Stadium in League Two (matchday 45). Kick-off is Saturday 26 April 2025 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Salford City stand at 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Salford City's form when playing at home: 1W 5D 4L across their last 10 home games (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.60 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Colchester — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling, Colchester have posted 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Salford City at 1.60 PPG versus Colchester's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 7 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Salford City, 3 for Colchester and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 26 Oct 2024, ended Salford City 2–1 Colchester — a Salford City win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Salford City in-play tendencies (last 90 games, 45 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Colchester in-play tendencies (last 90 games, 45 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 28 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Salford City 61% versus Colchester 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Salford City 56% | Colchester 43%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Salford City surrender their half-time lead 32% of the time, while Colchester have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Salford City 1.17 xG and Colchester 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salford City attack 0.967 / defence 1.264 | Colchester attack 0.898 / defence 0.941. League average goals — home 1.287 / away 1.142. Salford City's defence rating of 1.264 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Colchester's projected output up. Data: built from Salford City's last 90 games and Colchester's last 90.
Result probabilities: Salford City 33% | Draw 29% | Colchester 39%. Fair-value odds: Salford City 3.06 | Draw 3.48 | Colchester 2.59. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Colchester are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Colchester offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Salford City 70% (last 10 home games) | Colchester 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Salford City vs Colchester | Competition: League Two, matchday 45 | Venue: The Peninsula Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 26 April 2025 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Salford City 33% | Draw 29% | Colchester 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Salford City 1.17 / Colchester 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Salford City attack 0.967 / def 1.264 | Colchester attack 0.898 / def 0.941 | league avg home 1.287 / away 1.142 • Poisson stance: Colchester (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Salford City xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Colchester xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Salford City vs Colchester FAQs
What time does Salford City vs Colchester kick off?
Salford City vs Colchester kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 26 April 2025 at The Peninsula Stadium.
What was the final score in Salford City vs Colchester?
Salford City 4 - 1 Colchester.
Where is Salford City vs Colchester being played?
The match is being played at The Peninsula Stadium.
What competition is Salford City vs Colchester part of?
Salford City vs Colchester is a League Two fixture (matchday 45) (England).
Who is favourite to win Salford City vs Colchester?
Our statistical model gives Salford City a 33% chance of winning, Colchester a 39% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Colchester the favourite.
Will both teams score in Salford City vs Colchester?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Salford City and Colchester will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Salford City vs Colchester have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Salford City's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Colchester's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. The same calculation in reverse, Colchester's attack versus Salford City's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Salford City's last 90 games and Colchester's last 90 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Colchester Win
33%
3.06
29%
3.48
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Salford City xG
Total xG
2.47
1.30
Colchester xG
3.06
33%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
9%
11.19
12%
8.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 11.0 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.9 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.5 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Salford City vs Colchester Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Salford City vs Colchester?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Salford City and Colchester expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Salford City and 1.30 for Colchester, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Salford City vs Colchester?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Salford City's recent record stands at 30W 26D 34L from 90 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with D-W-D-L-W in the last five.
Colchester, meanwhile, have gone 27W 30D 33L across 90 games — 1.23 PPG, with D-W-W-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Salford City on 1.29 PPG, Colchester on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Salford City have managed 14W 13D 18L from their last 45 home games — 1.22 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Colchester's away record stands at 11W 16D 18L across their last 45 away games, a 1.09 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Salford City are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Colchester are on 1.22 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Salford City have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 90 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Salford City
Current Season
Colchester
Current Season
Salford City (Home) vs Colchester (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Salford City
Current Season
Colchester
Current Season
❓ Salford City vs Colchester Form FAQs
What form are Salford City and Colchester in coming into this match?
Salford City have gone 30W 26D 34L in their last 90 games (1.29 PPG), while Colchester have gone 27W 30D 33L in their last 90 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Salford City at home or Colchester away?
Salford City's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Salford City at home: 1.22 PPG; Colchester away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in League Two. The most recent was on 28 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Salford City have won the most recent 4 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 22 Jan 2022, when Colchester won Salford City 0-3 Colchester.
Salford City's record when hosting Colchester specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Salford City
2
Draws
3
Colchester
Recent Meetings
❓ Salford City vs Colchester H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Salford City and Colchester?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Salford City have won 5, Colchester have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Salford City and Colchester last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 February 2026: Colchester 0-1 Salford City.
Who has won more matches between Salford City and Colchester?
Salford City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Salford City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Colchester are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Salford City 64%, Colchester 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Salford City) and 40% (Colchester).
On the defensive side: Colchester in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Salford City home games / Colchester away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Salford City vs Colchester Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Salford City and Colchester matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Salford City's games and 53% of Colchester's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Salford City and Colchester matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Salford City's recent games and 40% of Colchester's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Salford City and Colchester matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Salford City's recent matches and 67% of Colchester's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Salford City run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Colchester.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Salford City beat Colchester 4-1 at The Peninsula Stadium, Regular Season - 45, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Salford City 1.17 xG and Colchester 1.30 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Salford City beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salford City attack 0.97 / defence 1.26 against Colchester attack 0.90 / defence 0.94, drawn from 90/90 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Salford City 33% | Draw 29% | Colchester 39%, with Colchester to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Salford City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salford City 56%, Colchester 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Salford City's trading profile (90 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Colchester's trading profile (90 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Salford City 1.29 PPG, Colchester 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Salford City win broke the near-deadlock. Salford City (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm. Colchester (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.49 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More League Two fixtures — matchday 45
All League Two fixtures →
More UK football predictions →