Salford City 0-0 AFC Wimbledon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AFC Wimbledon at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Salford City face AFC Wimbledon.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Salford City welcome AFC Wimbledon to The Peninsula Stadium in League Two (matchday 22). Kick-off is Saturday 16 December 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Salford City have gone 3W 3D 4L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D L L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Salford City's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, AFC Wimbledon stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
AFC Wimbledon away from home: 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Salford City) versus 1.40 (AFC Wimbledon). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Salford City, 0 for AFC Wimbledon and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 10 Apr 2023, ended Salford City 3–2 AFC Wimbledon — a Salford City win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Salford City trading profile (last 66 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
AFC Wimbledon trading profile (last 66 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 48%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Salford City 58% versus AFC Wimbledon 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Salford City 52% | AFC Wimbledon 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Salford City 1.25 xG and AFC Wimbledon 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salford City attack 0.970 / defence 1.332 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.900 / defence 0.833. League average goals — home 1.553 / away 1.256. Salford City's defence rating of 1.332 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing AFC Wimbledon's projected output up. Data: built from Salford City's last 66 games and AFC Wimbledon's last 66.
Result probabilities: Salford City 31% | Draw 27% | AFC Wimbledon 42%. Fair-value odds: Salford City 3.22 | Draw 3.76 | AFC Wimbledon 2.36. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AFC Wimbledon at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AFC Wimbledon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Salford City 80% (last 10 home games) | AFC Wimbledon 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Salford City vs AFC Wimbledon | Competition: League Two, matchday 22 | Venue: The Peninsula Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 16 December 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Salford City 31% | Draw 27% | AFC Wimbledon 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Salford City 1.25 / AFC Wimbledon 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Salford City attack 0.970 / def 1.332 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.900 / def 0.833 | league avg home 1.553 / away 1.256 • Poisson stance: AFC Wimbledon (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Salford City xG
Expected Goals
1.50
AFC Wimbledon xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Salford City vs AFC Wimbledon FAQs
What time does Salford City vs AFC Wimbledon kick off?
Salford City vs AFC Wimbledon kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 16 December 2023 at The Peninsula Stadium.
What was the final score in Salford City vs AFC Wimbledon?
Salford City 0 - 0 AFC Wimbledon.
Where is Salford City vs AFC Wimbledon being played?
The match is being played at The Peninsula Stadium.
What competition is Salford City vs AFC Wimbledon part of?
Salford City vs AFC Wimbledon is a League Two fixture (matchday 22) (England).
Who is favourite to win Salford City vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our statistical model gives Salford City a 31% chance of winning, AFC Wimbledon a 42% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making AFC Wimbledon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Salford City vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Salford City and AFC Wimbledon will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Salford City vs AFC Wimbledon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Salford City's attack at 0.97x the league average against AFC Wimbledon's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, AFC Wimbledon's attack versus Salford City's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Salford City's last 66 games and AFC Wimbledon's last 66 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AFC Wimbledon Win
31%
3.22
27%
3.76
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Salford City xG
Total xG
2.76
1.50
AFC Wimbledon xG
3.22
31%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
22%
4.50
29%
3.51
Win to Nil
7%
14.52
12%
8.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 9.5 | 7.2 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 12.0 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.5 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Salford City vs AFC Wimbledon Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Salford City vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Salford City and AFC Wimbledon expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Salford City and 1.50 for AFC Wimbledon, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Salford City vs AFC Wimbledon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Salford City come into this having played 66 games, going 28W 12D 26L for 1.45 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-D.
On the other side, AFC Wimbledon sit at 1.20 PPG from 66 outings (19W 22D 25L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Salford City on 1.45 PPG, AFC Wimbledon on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Salford City's home form reads 12W 7D 13L across their last 32 home games, a 1.34 PPG return.
Away from home, AFC Wimbledon have taken 1.09 points per game from their last 32 away games (8W 11D 13L).
The Goals Picture
Salford City are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; AFC Wimbledon are on 1.23 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Salford City
Blended
AFC Wimbledon
Blended
Salford City (Home) vs AFC Wimbledon (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Salford City
Blended
AFC Wimbledon
Blended
❓ Salford City vs AFC Wimbledon Form FAQs
What form are Salford City and AFC Wimbledon in coming into this match?
Salford City have gone 28W 12D 26L in their last 66 games (1.45 PPG), while AFC Wimbledon have gone 19W 22D 25L in their last 66 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Salford City at home or AFC Wimbledon away?
Salford City's home record (1.34 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Salford City at home: 1.34 PPG; AFC Wimbledon away: 1.09 PPG.
Have Salford City or AFC Wimbledon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Salford City have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, AFC Wimbledon in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2022. All of them came in League Two. The most recent in our data was on 15 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Salford City's record when hosting AFC Wimbledon specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Salford City
2
Draws
2
AFC Wimbledon
Recent Meetings
❓ Salford City vs AFC Wimbledon H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Salford City and AFC Wimbledon?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Salford City have won 2, AFC Wimbledon have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Salford City and AFC Wimbledon last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 February 2025: AFC Wimbledon 1-0 Salford City.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Salford City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
AFC Wimbledon see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Salford City 56%, AFC Wimbledon 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Salford City) and 50% (AFC Wimbledon).
On the defensive side: AFC Wimbledon in 38%; AFC Wimbledon in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Salford City home games / AFC Wimbledon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Salford City vs AFC Wimbledon Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Salford City and AFC Wimbledon matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Salford City's recent matches and 50% of AFC Wimbledon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Salford City and AFC Wimbledon matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Salford City's recent games and 50% of AFC Wimbledon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Salford City and AFC Wimbledon matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 88% of Salford City's recent matches and 56% of AFC Wimbledon's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Salford City's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The Peninsula Stadium, Regular Season - 22, as Salford City and AFC Wimbledon drew 0-0 in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Salford City 1.25 xG and AFC Wimbledon 1.50 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Salford City fell 1.3 short of their projected output. AFC Wimbledon landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salford City attack 0.97 / defence 1.33 against AFC Wimbledon attack 0.90 / defence 0.83, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Salford City 31% | Draw 27% | AFC Wimbledon 42%, with AFC Wimbledon to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salford City 52%, AFC Wimbledon 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Salford City's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Salford City 1.45 PPG, AFC Wimbledon 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Salford City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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