Rochdale 1-2 AFC Wimbledon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rochdale at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rochdale vs AFC Wimbledon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
AFC Wimbledon make the trip to Crown Oil Arena to face Rochdale in League Two, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Saturday 22 October 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Rochdale (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 League Two fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Rochdale, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Rochdale have posted 3W 2D 5L at Crown Oil Arena — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
AFC Wimbledon's overall League Two record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for AFC Wimbledon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AFC Wimbledon away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Rochdale, 0.70 for AFC Wimbledon — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Rochdale have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, AFC Wimbledon in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Rochdale — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
AFC Wimbledon — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rochdale 48% versus AFC Wimbledon 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rochdale 42% | AFC Wimbledon 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rochdale 1.49 xG and AFC Wimbledon 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rochdale attack 0.888 / defence 1.146 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.968 / defence 1.389. League average goals — home 1.208 / away 1.025. AFC Wimbledon bring a strong defensive rating of 1.389 — this is suppressing Rochdale's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 59 Rochdale games / 13 AFC Wimbledon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rochdale 45% | Draw 26% | AFC Wimbledon 29%. Fair-value odds: Rochdale 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | AFC Wimbledon 3.45. Rochdale hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rochdale are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rochdale if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rochdale 60% | AFC Wimbledon 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rochdale vs AFC Wimbledon | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Crown Oil Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Oct 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rochdale 45% | Draw 26% | AFC Wimbledon 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Rochdale 1.49 / AFC Wimbledon 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Rochdale attack 0.888 / def 1.146 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.968 / def 1.389 | league avg home 1.208 / away 1.025 • Poisson stance: Rochdale (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Rochdale xG
Expected Goals
1.14
AFC Wimbledon xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rochdale vs AFC Wimbledon kick off?
Rochdale vs AFC Wimbledon kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 22 October 2022 at Crown Oil Arena.
What was the final score in Rochdale vs AFC Wimbledon?
Rochdale 1 - 2 AFC Wimbledon.
Where is Rochdale vs AFC Wimbledon being played?
The match is being played at Crown Oil Arena.
What competition is Rochdale vs AFC Wimbledon part of?
Rochdale vs AFC Wimbledon is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Rochdale vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our statistical model gives Rochdale a 45% chance of winning, AFC Wimbledon a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Rochdale the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rochdale vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Rochdale and AFC Wimbledon will score (BTTS).
Will Rochdale vs AFC Wimbledon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rochdale and AFC Wimbledon?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rochdale and AFC Wimbledon in?
Rochdale (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. AFC Wimbledon (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Rochdale's attack at 0.89x the league average against AFC Wimbledon's defence at 1.39x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — AFC Wimbledon's attack (0.97x) against Rochdale's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 59/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.2%), 2-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rochdale Win
45%
2.21
26%
3.89
29%
3.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Rochdale xG
Total xG
2.63
1.14
AFC Wimbledon xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
3.46
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
23%
4.44
Win to Nil
15%
6.88
7%
15.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 8.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.2 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.1 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rochdale vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Rochdale and AFC Wimbledon expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Rochdale and 1.14 for AFC Wimbledon, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Rochdale vs AFC Wimbledon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 59 outings, Rochdale have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 15W 19D 25L record — L-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Rochdale is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AFC Wimbledon's form line: 9W 22D 28L from 59 games, 0.83 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-L. The sample for AFC Wimbledon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.08 PPG for Rochdale against 0.83 for AFC Wimbledon. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Rochdale have posted 1.24 PPG from 29 outings (8W 12D 9L).
On the road, AFC Wimbledon have gone 4W 7D 18L from 29 away games — 0.66 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rochdale come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Rochdale are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; AFC Wimbledon are on 1.07 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Last 59 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rochdale
Blended
AFC Wimbledon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rochdale and AFC Wimbledon in coming into this match?
Rochdale have gone 15W 19D 25L in their last 59 games (1.08 PPG), while AFC Wimbledon have gone 9W 22D 28L in their last 59 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rochdale at home or AFC Wimbledon away?
Rochdale's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rochdale at home: 1.24 PPG; AFC Wimbledon away: 0.66 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Rochdale
0
Draws
1
AFC Wimbledon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rochdale and AFC Wimbledon?
From 2 meetings on record, Rochdale have won 1, AFC Wimbledon have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Rochdale and AFC Wimbledon last play each other?
They last met on 1 April 2023, when AFC Wimbledon 0-1 Rochdale.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rochdale are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
AFC Wimbledon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rochdale 52%, AFC Wimbledon 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Rochdale) and 55% (AFC Wimbledon).
On the defensive side: Rochdale keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Rochdale have failed to score in 31% of games; AFC Wimbledon in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rochdale home games / AFC Wimbledon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rochdale play AFC Wimbledon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Rochdale's recent matches and 52% of AFC Wimbledon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rochdale vs AFC Wimbledon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Rochdale's recent games and 55% of AFC Wimbledon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rochdale and AFC Wimbledon tend to score early?
Rochdale have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, AFC Wimbledon in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as AFC Wimbledon defy the odds to beat Rochdale 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AFC Wimbledon beat Rochdale 1-2 at Crown Oil Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rochdale 1.49 xG and AFC Wimbledon 1.14 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. AFC Wimbledon outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rochdale attack 0.89 / defence 1.15 against AFC Wimbledon attack 0.97 / defence 1.39, drawn from 59/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rochdale 45% | Draw 26% | AFC Wimbledon 29%, with Rochdale to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual AFC Wimbledon win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rochdale 42%, AFC Wimbledon 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rochdale's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rochdale 1.08 PPG, AFC Wimbledon 0.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AFC Wimbledon win broke the near-deadlock. Rochdale (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.