Oldham 1-4 Salford City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Oldham at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Oldham vs Salford City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Salford City travel to Boundary Park to take on Oldham. The game is scheduled for Saturday 26 September 2026, 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Oldham stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 League Two matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Oldham have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Oldham at Boundary Park this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Boundary Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Oldham are significantly better at Boundary Park than their overall form suggests.
Across all League Two games this season, Salford City have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Salford City have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in League Two this season, Salford City have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Oldham at 1.00 PPG versus Salford City's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
Salford City have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 4 encounters against Oldham's 0 victories.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2026, ended 1–2 with Salford City winning.
It is worth noting that Salford City have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 4 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Oldham trading profile (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Salford City trading profile (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oldham 43% versus Salford City 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oldham 47% | Salford City 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oldham 1.78 xG and Salford City 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oldham attack 1.106 / defence 0.925 | Salford City attack 1.070 / defence 1.134. League average goals — home 1.419 / away 1.008. Data: 53 Oldham games / 53 Salford City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oldham 54% | Draw 27% | Salford City 19%. Fair-value odds: Oldham 1.85 | Draw 3.70 | Salford City 5.26. Oldham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Oldham as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Oldham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.78 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. This conflicts with form data: Oldham 30% | Salford City 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oldham vs Salford City | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Boundary Park • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Sep 2026, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oldham 54% | Draw 27% | Salford City 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Oldham 1.78 / Salford City 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Oldham attack 1.106 / def 0.925 | Salford City attack 1.070 / def 1.134 | league avg home 1.419 / away 1.008 • Poisson stance: Oldham (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Oldham xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Salford City xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oldham vs Salford City kick off?
Oldham vs Salford City kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 26 September 2026 at Boundary Park.
What was the final score in Oldham vs Salford City?
Oldham 1 - 4 Salford City.
Where is Oldham vs Salford City being played?
The match is being played at Boundary Park.
What competition is Oldham vs Salford City part of?
Oldham vs Salford City is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Oldham vs Salford City?
Our statistical model gives Oldham a 54% chance of winning, Salford City a 19% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Oldham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oldham vs Salford City?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Oldham and Salford City will score (BTTS).
Will Oldham vs Salford City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oldham and Salford City?
Record (4 meetings): Oldham 0W | Draws 0 | Salford City 4W.
What form are Oldham and Salford City in?
Oldham (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Salford City (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Oldham's attack at 1.11x the league average against Salford City's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.78 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Salford City's attack versus Oldham's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oldham Win
54%
1.86
27%
3.64
19%
5.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Oldham xG
Total xG
2.78
1.00
Salford City xG
1.86
54%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
5.29
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
17%
5.93
Win to Nil
20%
5.05
3%
31.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 11.0 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oldham vs Salford City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Oldham and Salford City expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Oldham and 1.00 for Salford City, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Oldham vs Salford City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Oldham's recent record stands at 20W 15D 18L from 53 games, a 1.42 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Oldham, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Salford City, meanwhile, have gone 27W 8D 18L across 53 games — 1.68 PPG, with L-W-W-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Salford City, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Oldham on 1.42 PPG, Salford City on 1.68. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Oldham have managed 12W 8D 6L from 26 games — 1.69 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Salford City's away record stands at 10W 3D 13L across 26 trips, a 1.27 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.68 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Salford City's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Oldham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Oldham are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Salford City are on 1.28 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Oldham have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oldham
Early Season
Salford City
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oldham and Salford City in coming into this match?
Oldham have gone 20W 15D 18L in their last 53 games (1.42 PPG), while Salford City have gone 27W 8D 18L in their last 53 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oldham at home or Salford City away?
Oldham's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oldham at home: 1.69 PPG; Salford City away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Oldham or Salford City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oldham have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Salford City in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. The two were last together as recently as 26 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Salford City have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Sep 2026, when Salford City won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Oldham's record when hosting Salford City specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Oldham
0
Draws
5
Salford City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oldham and Salford City?
From 5 meetings on record, Oldham have won 0, Salford City have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Oldham and Salford City last play each other?
They last met on 26 September 2026, when Oldham 1-4 Salford City.
Who has won more matches between Oldham and Salford City?
Salford City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Oldham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Salford City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oldham 42%, Salford City 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Oldham) and 50% (Salford City).
On the defensive side: Oldham keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Salford City in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oldham home games / Salford City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oldham play Salford City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Oldham's recent matches and 50% of Salford City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Oldham vs Salford City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Oldham's recent games and 50% of Salford City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Oldham and Salford City tend to score early?
Oldham have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Salford City in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Salford City run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Oldham.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Salford City beat Oldham 1-4 at Boundary Park, Regular Season - 8, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oldham 1.78 xG and Salford City 1.00 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Salford City outscored their 1.00 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oldham attack 1.11 / defence 0.93 against Salford City attack 1.07 / defence 1.13, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oldham 54% | Draw 27% | Salford City 19%, with Oldham to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Salford City win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oldham 47%, Salford City 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oldham's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Salford City's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Oldham 1.42 PPG, Salford City 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Salford City win broke the near-deadlock. Oldham (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Salford City (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.