Oldham vs Crawley Town – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Oldham at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Oldham vs Crawley Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Oldham host Crawley Town at Boundary Park in League Two, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 31 October 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Oldham have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Oldham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Oldham's home record at Boundary Park: 5W 2D 3L from 10 League Two appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Boundary Park. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Oldham are significantly better at Boundary Park than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Crawley Town stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 League Two matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Crawley Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League Two this season, Crawley Town have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Oldham carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.10 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Oldham have won 1, Crawley Town 0, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2026, ended 2–0 with Oldham winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Oldham in-play and half-time data (55 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Crawley Town in-play and half-time data (55 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oldham 46% versus Crawley Town 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oldham 49% | Crawley Town 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oldham 1.85 xG and Crawley Town 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oldham attack 1.128 / defence 1.076 | Crawley Town attack 1.035 / defence 1.210. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 1.019. Crawley Town bring a strong defensive rating of 1.210 — this is suppressing Oldham's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 56 Oldham games / 55 Crawley Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oldham 52% | Draw 26% | Crawley Town 21%. Fair-value odds: Oldham 1.92 | Draw 3.85 | Crawley Town 4.76. Oldham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Oldham at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Oldham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.99 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Oldham 50% | Crawley Town 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oldham vs Crawley Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Boundary Park • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oldham 52% | Draw 26% | Crawley Town 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Oldham 1.85 / Crawley Town 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Oldham attack 1.128 / def 1.076 | Crawley Town attack 1.035 / def 1.210 | league avg home 1.358 / away 1.019 • Poisson stance: Oldham (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Oldham xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Crawley Town xG
59%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oldham vs Crawley Town kick off?
Oldham vs Crawley Town is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 31 October 2026 at Boundary Park.
Where is Oldham vs Crawley Town being played?
The match is being played at Boundary Park.
What competition is Oldham vs Crawley Town part of?
Oldham vs Crawley Town is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Oldham vs Crawley Town?
Our statistical model gives Oldham a 52% chance of winning, Crawley Town a 21% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Oldham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oldham vs Crawley Town?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Oldham and Crawley Town will score (BTTS).
Will Oldham vs Crawley Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oldham and Crawley Town?
Record (4 meetings): Oldham 1W | Draws 3 | Crawley Town 0W.
What form are Oldham and Crawley Town in?
Oldham (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. Crawley Town (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Oldham's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against Crawley Town's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.85. The same calculation in reverse, Crawley Town's attack versus Oldham's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oldham Win
52%
1.91
26%
3.82
21%
4.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Oldham xG
Total xG
2.99
1.13
Crawley Town xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
4.68
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
16%
6.38
Win to Nil
17%
5.93
3%
29.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 10.6 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oldham vs Crawley Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Oldham and Crawley Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Oldham and 1.13 for Crawley Town, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Oldham vs Crawley Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Oldham come into this having played 55 games, going 21W 15D 19L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-W. The sample for Oldham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Crawley Town sit at 0.82 PPG from 55 outings (9W 18D 28L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Crawley Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Oldham carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of Crawley Town — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Oldham's home form reads 13W 8D 7L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.68 PPG return.
Away from home, Crawley Town have taken 0.68 points per game from 28 outings (4W 7D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Oldham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Oldham are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Crawley Town are on 0.96 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Defensively: Oldham have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oldham
Blended
Crawley Town
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oldham and Crawley Town in coming into this match?
Oldham have gone 21W 15D 19L in their last 55 games (1.42 PPG), while Crawley Town have gone 9W 18D 28L in their last 55 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oldham at home or Crawley Town away?
Oldham's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oldham at home: 1.68 PPG; Crawley Town away: 0.68 PPG.
Have Oldham or Crawley Town been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oldham have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Crawley Town in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Oldham and Crawley Town runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Oldham's record when hosting Crawley Town specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Oldham
3
Draws
0
Crawley Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oldham and Crawley Town?
From 4 meetings on record, Oldham have won 1, Crawley Town have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Oldham and Crawley Town last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Oldham 2-0 Crawley Town.
Who has won more matches between Oldham and Crawley Town?
Oldham have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Oldham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oldham 43%, Crawley Town 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Oldham) and 50% (Crawley Town).
On the defensive side: Oldham keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Crawley Town in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oldham home games / Crawley Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oldham play Crawley Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Oldham's recent matches and 43% of Crawley Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Oldham vs Crawley Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Oldham's recent games and 50% of Crawley Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Oldham and Crawley Town tend to score early?
Oldham have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Crawley Town in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.