Notts County 1-3 Gillingham – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Notts County at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Notts County vs Gillingham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 32 as Notts County welcome Gillingham to Meadow Lane. Kick-off is set for Friday 9 February 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Notts County stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 League Two matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Notts County have posted 6W 1D 3L at Meadow Lane — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Notts County are significantly better at Meadow Lane than their overall form suggests.
Across all League Two games this season, Gillingham have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Gillingham's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Notts County) versus 1.50 (Gillingham). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Notts County, 0 for Gillingham and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Oct 2023, ended 2–1 with Notts County winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Notts County trading profile (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Gillingham trading profile (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Notts County 72% versus Gillingham 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Notts County 72% | Gillingham 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Notts County 1.80 xG and Gillingham 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Notts County attack 1.323 / defence 1.016 | Gillingham attack 0.764 / defence 0.921. League average goals — home 1.481 / away 1.321. Notts County carry an above-average attack strength of 1.323 — their λ of 1.80 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 29 Notts County games / 75 Gillingham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Notts County 55% | Draw 25% | Gillingham 21%. Fair-value odds: Notts County 1.82 | Draw 4.00 | Gillingham 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Notts County (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Notts County as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Notts County 60% | Gillingham 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Notts County vs Gillingham | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Meadow Lane • Kick-off: Friday 9 Feb 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Notts County 55% | Draw 25% | Gillingham 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 54% | xG Notts County 1.80 / Gillingham 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Notts County attack 1.323 / def 1.016 | Gillingham attack 0.764 / def 0.921 | league avg home 1.481 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: Notts County (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Notts County xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Gillingham xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Notts County vs Gillingham kick off?
Notts County vs Gillingham kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 9 February 2024 at Meadow Lane.
What was the final score in Notts County vs Gillingham?
Notts County 1 - 3 Gillingham.
Where is Notts County vs Gillingham being played?
The match is being played at Meadow Lane.
What competition is Notts County vs Gillingham part of?
Notts County vs Gillingham is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Notts County vs Gillingham?
Our statistical model gives Notts County a 55% chance of winning, Gillingham a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Notts County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Notts County vs Gillingham?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Notts County and Gillingham will score (BTTS).
Will Notts County vs Gillingham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Notts County and Gillingham?
Record (1 meetings): Notts County 1W | Draws 0 | Gillingham 0W.
What form are Notts County and Gillingham in?
Notts County (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. Gillingham (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Notts County's attack rating (1.32) and Gillingham's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.80 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Gillingham's attack versus Notts County's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Notts County Win
55%
1.82
25%
4.05
21%
4.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Notts County xG
Total xG
2.83
1.03
Gillingham xG
1.82
55%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
4.88
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
16%
6.07
Win to Nil
20%
5.09
3%
29.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 10.9 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Notts County vs Gillingham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Notts County and Gillingham expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Notts County and 1.03 for Gillingham, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Notts County vs Gillingham?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Notts County come into this having played 29 games, going 13W 5D 11L for 1.52 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-L.
On the other side, Gillingham sit at 1.48 PPG from 29 outings (13W 4D 12L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Notts County on 1.52 PPG, Gillingham on 1.48. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Notts County's home form reads 10W 1D 3L across 14 games on their own ground, a 2.21 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.52 PPG overall — Notts County are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Gillingham have taken 1.36 points per game from 14 outings (6W 1D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Notts County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Notts County are averaging 2.10 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Gillingham are on 0.90 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Notts County have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games.
Last 29 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Notts County
Current Season
Gillingham
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Notts County and Gillingham in coming into this match?
Notts County have gone 13W 5D 11L in their last 29 games (1.52 PPG), while Gillingham have gone 13W 4D 12L in their last 29 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Notts County at home or Gillingham away?
Notts County's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Notts County at home: 2.21 PPG; Gillingham away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Notts County or Gillingham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Notts County have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Gillingham in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 3 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Notts County's record when hosting Gillingham specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Notts County
0
Draws
3
Gillingham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Notts County and Gillingham?
From 6 meetings on record, Notts County have won 3, Gillingham have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Notts County and Gillingham last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2026, when Notts County 1-0 Gillingham.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Notts County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Gillingham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Notts County 71%, Gillingham 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 86% for Notts County and 36% for Gillingham. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gillingham in 43%; Gillingham in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Notts County home games / Gillingham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Notts County play Gillingham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 71% of Notts County's recent matches and 36% of Gillingham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Notts County vs Gillingham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 86% of Notts County's matches and 36% of Gillingham's.
Do Notts County and Gillingham tend to score early?
Notts County have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, Gillingham in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gillingham cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Notts County.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gillingham beat Notts County 1-3 at Meadow Lane, Regular Season - 32, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Notts County 1.80 xG and Gillingham 1.03 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Notts County fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Gillingham outscored their 1.03 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Notts County attack 1.32 / defence 1.02 against Gillingham attack 0.76 / defence 0.92, drawn from 29/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Notts County 55% | Draw 25% | Gillingham 21%, with Notts County to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Gillingham win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Notts County 72%, Gillingham 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Notts County's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Gillingham's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Notts County 1.52 PPG, Gillingham 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gillingham win broke the near-deadlock. Notts County (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.57 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gillingham (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.79 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.