Notts County 0-1 Accrington ST – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Notts County at 53% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Notts County vs Accrington ST encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Meadow Lane plays host to Notts County versus Accrington ST in League Two, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Thursday 1 January 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Notts County have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W D L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Notts County, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Notts County have posted 6W 3D 1L at Meadow Lane — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Accrington ST (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 League Two outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Accrington ST, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Accrington ST away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Notts County have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins from 4 meetings, with Accrington ST managing just 0 victories and 1 draws shared.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 18 Jan 2025, ended 3–0 with Notts County winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Notts County and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Notts County goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Accrington ST goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Notts County 52% versus Accrington ST 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Notts County 46% | Accrington ST 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Notts County 1.70 xG and Accrington ST 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Notts County attack 1.228 / defence 0.957 | Accrington ST attack 0.869 / defence 1.061. League average goals — home 1.301 / away 1.224. Data: 69 Notts County games / 69 Accrington ST games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Notts County 53% | Draw 25% | Accrington ST 22%. Fair-value odds: Notts County 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | Accrington ST 4.55. Notts County hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Notts County at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Notts County if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Notts County 60% | Accrington ST 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Notts County vs Accrington ST | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Meadow Lane • Kick-off: Thursday 1 Jan 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Notts County 53% | Draw 25% | Accrington ST 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 53% | xG Notts County 1.70 / Accrington ST 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Notts County attack 1.228 / def 0.957 | Accrington ST attack 0.869 / def 1.061 | league avg home 1.301 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Notts County (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Notts County xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Accrington ST xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Notts County vs Accrington ST kick off?
Notts County vs Accrington ST kicked off at 15:00 on Thursday 1 January 2026 at Meadow Lane.
What was the final score in Notts County vs Accrington ST?
Notts County 0 - 1 Accrington ST.
Where is Notts County vs Accrington ST being played?
The match is being played at Meadow Lane.
What competition is Notts County vs Accrington ST part of?
Notts County vs Accrington ST is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Notts County vs Accrington ST?
Our statistical model gives Notts County a 53% chance of winning, Accrington ST a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Notts County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Notts County vs Accrington ST?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Notts County and Accrington ST will score (BTTS).
Will Notts County vs Accrington ST have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Notts County and Accrington ST?
Record (4 meetings): Notts County 3W | Draws 1 | Accrington ST 0W.
What form are Notts County and Accrington ST in?
Notts County (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-L-D. Accrington ST (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Notts County's attack at 1.23x the league average against Accrington ST's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.70 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Accrington ST's attack (0.87x) against Notts County's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 69/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Notts County Win
53%
1.89
25%
4.00
22%
4.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Notts County xG
Total xG
2.71
1.02
Accrington ST xG
1.89
53%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
4.50
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
18%
5.45
Win to Nil
19%
5.23
4%
24.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 11.4 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.7 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Notts County vs Accrington ST?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Notts County and Accrington ST expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Notts County and 1.02 for Accrington ST, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Notts County vs Accrington ST?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Notts County come into this having played 69 games, going 31W 16D 22L for 1.58 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-D. The sample for Notts County is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Accrington ST sit at 1.16 PPG from 69 outings (20W 20D 29L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Accrington ST is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Notts County carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Accrington ST — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Notts County's home form reads 16W 7D 11L across 34 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Accrington ST have taken 0.97 points per game from 34 outings (9W 6D 19L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Notts County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Notts County are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Accrington ST are on 1.14 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 69 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Notts County
Blended
Accrington ST
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Notts County and Accrington ST in coming into this match?
Notts County have gone 31W 16D 22L in their last 69 games (1.58 PPG), while Accrington ST have gone 20W 20D 29L in their last 69 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Notts County at home or Accrington ST away?
Notts County's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Notts County at home: 1.62 PPG; Accrington ST away: 0.97 PPG.
Have Notts County or Accrington ST been keeping clean sheets recently?
Notts County have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Accrington ST in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 17 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Notts County won 0-4 on 17 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Notts County have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Accrington ST — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Notts County
1
Draws
1
Accrington ST
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Notts County and Accrington ST?
From 6 meetings on record, Notts County have won 4, Accrington ST have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Notts County and Accrington ST last play each other?
They last met on 17 March 2026, when Accrington ST 0-4 Notts County.
Who has won more matches between Notts County and Accrington ST?
Notts County have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Notts County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Notts County 50%, Accrington ST 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Notts County) and 50% (Accrington ST).
On the defensive side: Notts County keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Accrington ST in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Notts County home games / Accrington ST away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Notts County play Accrington ST?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Notts County's recent matches and 50% of Accrington ST's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Notts County vs Accrington ST usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Notts County's recent games and 50% of Accrington ST's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Notts County and Accrington ST tend to score early?
Notts County have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Accrington ST in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Accrington ST defy the odds to beat Notts County 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Accrington ST beat Notts County 0-1 at Meadow Lane, Regular Season - 24, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Notts County 1.70 xG and Accrington ST 1.02 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Notts County fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Notts County attack 1.23 / defence 0.96 against Accrington ST attack 0.87 / defence 1.06, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Notts County 53% | Draw 25% | Accrington ST 22%, with Notts County to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Accrington ST win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Notts County 46%, Accrington ST 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Notts County's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Accrington ST's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Notts County arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.16. Form was overturned, with Accrington ST winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Notts County (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Accrington ST (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.