Northampton 1-1 Crawley Town – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Crawley Town at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Northampton vs Crawley Town encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 4 as Northampton welcome Crawley Town to Sixfields Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 1 September 2026 at 18:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Northampton — All Games: 0W 2D 8L from 10 League Two outings this season, averaging 0.20 points per game. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Northampton have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Northampton's home record at Sixfields Stadium: 1W 2D 7L from 10 League Two appearances (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all League Two games this season, Crawley Town have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Crawley Town have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Crawley Town's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Crawley Town — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Northampton have won 3, Crawley Town 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2025, ended 0–3 with Crawley Town winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Northampton trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Crawley Town trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Northampton 47% versus Crawley Town 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Northampton 45% | Crawley Town 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Northampton 0.93 xG and Crawley Town 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Northampton attack 0.692 / defence 1.002 | Crawley Town attack 1.033 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 1.327 / away 1.101. Northampton's attack strength of 0.692 is below the league average — the 0.93 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 3 Northampton games / 49 Crawley Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Northampton 30% | Draw 30% | Crawley Town 40%. Fair-value odds: Northampton 3.33 | Draw 3.33 | Crawley Town 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Crawley Town at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Crawley Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.07 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Northampton 60% | Crawley Town 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Northampton vs Crawley Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Sixfields Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 1 Sep 2026, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Northampton 30% | Draw 30% | Crawley Town 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Northampton 0.93 / Crawley Town 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Northampton attack 0.692 / def 1.002 | Crawley Town attack 1.033 / def 1.014 | league avg home 1.327 / away 1.101 • Poisson stance: Crawley Town (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Northampton xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Crawley Town xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Northampton vs Crawley Town kick off?
Northampton vs Crawley Town kicked off at 18:45 on Tuesday 1 September 2026 at Sixfields Stadium.
What was the final score in Northampton vs Crawley Town?
Northampton 1 - 1 Crawley Town.
Where is Northampton vs Crawley Town being played?
The match is being played at Sixfields Stadium.
What competition is Northampton vs Crawley Town part of?
Northampton vs Crawley Town is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Northampton vs Crawley Town?
Our statistical model gives Northampton a 30% chance of winning, Crawley Town a 40% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Crawley Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Northampton vs Crawley Town?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Northampton and Crawley Town will score (BTTS).
Will Northampton vs Crawley Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and Crawley Town?
Record (6 meetings): Northampton 3W | Draws 1 | Crawley Town 2W.
What form are Northampton and Crawley Town in?
Northampton (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. Crawley Town (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Northampton's attack rating (0.69) and Crawley Town's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 0.93 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Crawley Town's attack versus Northampton's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 0-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crawley Town Win
30%
3.37
30%
3.34
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Northampton xG
Total xG
2.07
1.14
Crawley Town xG
3.37
30%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
39%
2.54
Win to Nil
9%
10.55
16%
6.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 14.4 | 8.2 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Northampton vs Crawley Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Northampton and Crawley Town expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Northampton and 1.14 for Crawley Town, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Northampton vs Crawley Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Northampton come into this having played 49 games, going 9W 10D 30L for 0.76 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-D. It's still early in the season for Northampton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Crawley Town sit at 0.88 PPG from 49 outings (9W 16D 24L), a run that reads D-D-L-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Crawley Town, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Northampton on 0.76 PPG, Crawley Town on 0.88. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Northampton's home form reads 6W 5D 13L across 24 games on their own ground, a 0.96 PPG return.
Away from home, Crawley Town have taken 0.75 points per game from 24 outings (4W 6D 14L).
The Goals Picture
Northampton are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Crawley Town are on 0.94 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 49 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Northampton
Early Season
Crawley Town
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Northampton and Crawley Town in coming into this match?
Northampton have gone 9W 10D 30L in their last 49 games (0.76 PPG), while Crawley Town have gone 9W 16D 24L in their last 49 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Northampton at home or Crawley Town away?
Northampton's home record (0.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Northampton at home: 0.96 PPG; Crawley Town away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Northampton and Crawley Town runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 1 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Oct 2024, when Northampton won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Northampton's record when hosting Crawley Town specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Northampton
2
Draws
2
Crawley Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and Crawley Town?
From 7 meetings on record, Northampton have won 3, Crawley Town have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Northampton and Crawley Town last play each other?
They last met on 1 September 2026, when Northampton 1-1 Crawley Town.
Who has won more matches between Northampton and Crawley Town?
Northampton have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Northampton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Northampton 50%, Crawley Town 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Northampton) and 50% (Crawley Town).
On the defensive side: Northampton have failed to score in 38% of games; Crawley Town in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Northampton home games / Crawley Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Northampton play Crawley Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Northampton's recent matches and 38% of Crawley Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Northampton vs Crawley Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Northampton's recent games and 50% of Crawley Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Northampton and Crawley Town tend to score early?
Northampton have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Crawley Town in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Northampton and Crawley Town share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Northampton and Crawley Town finished level at 1-1 at Sixfields Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Northampton 0.93 xG and Crawley Town 1.14 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Northampton attack 0.69 / defence 1.00 against Crawley Town attack 1.03 / defence 1.01, drawn from 3/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Northampton 30% | Draw 30% | Crawley Town 40%, with Crawley Town to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Northampton 45%, Crawley Town 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Northampton's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Crawley Town's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Northampton 0.76 PPG, Crawley Town 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.