Newport County 3-1 Gillingham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Newport County (42%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Newport County face Gillingham.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Newport County and Gillingham meet at Rodney Parade in League Two (matchday 35). This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 4 March 2025 at 19:45 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Newport County have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Newport County at home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Gillingham's record over their last 10 games: 1W 5D 4L (0.80 PPG). Last five: D D D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Gillingham away from home: 1W 5D 4L from their last 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Newport County's favour (1.40 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record in our data favours Newport County, who have won 5 of the 5 H2H matches we hold against Gillingham — Gillingham have 0 wins, with 0 draws.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 22 Oct 2024, ended Newport County 2–0 Gillingham — a Newport County win.
The head-to-head data gives Newport County an edge — 5 wins from 5 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading & In-Play
Newport County — key trading statistics (last 79 games, 39 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Gillingham — key trading statistics (last 79 games, 39 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Newport County 52% versus Gillingham 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Newport County 61% | Gillingham 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Newport County 1.16 xG and Gillingham 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Newport County attack 0.956 / defence 1.189 | Gillingham attack 0.691 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.274 / away 1.076. Gillingham's attack rating of 0.691 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.88. Data: built from Newport County's last 79 games and Gillingham's last 79.
Result probabilities: Newport County 42% | Draw 30% | Gillingham 28%. Fair-value odds: Newport County 2.37 | Draw 3.33 | Gillingham 3.60. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Newport County at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Newport County if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.05 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Newport County's last 10 home games and Gillingham's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Newport County 40% (last 10 home games) | Gillingham 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Newport County vs Gillingham | Competition: League Two, matchday 35 | Venue: Rodney Parade • Kick-off: Tuesday 4 March 2025 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Newport County 42% | Draw 30% | Gillingham 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG Newport County 1.16 / Gillingham 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Newport County attack 0.956 / def 1.189 | Gillingham attack 0.691 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.274 / away 1.076 • Poisson stance: Newport County (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Newport County xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Gillingham xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Newport County vs Gillingham FAQs
What time does Newport County vs Gillingham kick off?
Newport County vs Gillingham kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Tuesday 4 March 2025 at Rodney Parade.
What was the final score in Newport County vs Gillingham?
Newport County 3 - 1 Gillingham.
Where is Newport County vs Gillingham being played?
The match is being played at Rodney Parade.
What competition is Newport County vs Gillingham part of?
Newport County vs Gillingham is a League Two fixture (matchday 35) (England).
Who is favourite to win Newport County vs Gillingham?
Our statistical model gives Newport County a 42% chance of winning, Gillingham a 28% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Newport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Newport County vs Gillingham?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Newport County and Gillingham will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will Newport County vs Gillingham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Newport County's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Gillingham's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. Flip it around — Gillingham's attack (0.69x) against Newport County's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from Newport County's last 79 games and Gillingham's last 79 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 1-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Newport County Win
42%
2.37
30%
3.33
28%
3.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Newport County xG
Total xG
2.05
0.88
Gillingham xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
3.60
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
17%
5.73
9%
11.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 11.4 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.0 | 13.3 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Newport County vs Gillingham Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Newport County vs Gillingham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Newport County and Gillingham expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Newport County and 0.88 for Gillingham, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Newport County vs Gillingham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Newport County's recent record stands at 27W 14D 38L from 79 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-L in the last five.
Gillingham, meanwhile, have gone 28W 18D 33L across 79 games — 1.29 PPG, with D-D-D-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Newport County against 1.29 for Gillingham. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Newport County have managed 17W 9D 13L from their last 39 home games — 1.54 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Gillingham's away record stands at 12W 7D 20L across their last 39 away games, a 1.10 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Newport County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Newport County are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Gillingham are on 0.94 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 79 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Newport County
Current Season
Gillingham
Current Season
Newport County (Home) vs Gillingham (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Newport County
Current Season
Gillingham
Current Season
❓ Newport County vs Gillingham Form FAQs
What form are Newport County and Gillingham in coming into this match?
Newport County have gone 27W 14D 38L in their last 79 games (1.20 PPG), while Gillingham have gone 28W 18D 33L in their last 79 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Newport County at home or Gillingham away?
Newport County's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Newport County at home: 1.54 PPG; Gillingham away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Newport County or Gillingham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Newport County have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Gillingham in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 9 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in League Two. The most recent was as recently as 3 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Newport County have gone 3W 0D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Gillingham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
6
Newport County
1
Draws
2
Gillingham
Recent Meetings
❓ Newport County vs Gillingham H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Newport County and Gillingham?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Newport County have won 6, Gillingham have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Newport County and Gillingham last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 October 2026: Gillingham 0-0 Newport County.
Who has won more matches between Newport County and Gillingham?
Newport County have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Newport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Gillingham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Newport County 64%, Gillingham 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Newport County) and 31% (Gillingham).
On the defensive side: Gillingham in 31%; Gillingham in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Newport County home games / Gillingham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Newport County vs Gillingham Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Newport County and Gillingham matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Newport County's recent matches and 38% of Gillingham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Newport County and Gillingham matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Newport County's recent games and 31% of Gillingham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Newport County and Gillingham matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Newport County's recent matches and 64% of Gillingham's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Newport County cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Gillingham.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Newport County beat Gillingham 3-1 at Rodney Parade, Regular Season - 35, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Newport County 1.16 xG and Gillingham 0.88 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Newport County beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Newport County attack 0.96 / defence 1.19 against Gillingham attack 0.69 / defence 0.95, drawn from 79/79 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Newport County 42% | Draw 30% | Gillingham 28%, with Newport County to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Newport County 61%, Gillingham 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Newport County's trading profile (79 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Gillingham's trading profile (79 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Newport County 1.20 PPG, Gillingham 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Newport County win broke the near-deadlock. Newport County (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm. Gillingham (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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