Morecambe 1-0 Crawley Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Crawley Town at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Morecambe vs Crawley Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Crawley Town travel to Mazuma Mobile Stadium to take on Morecambe. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 5 March 2024, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Morecambe stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 League Two matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Morecambe at Mazuma Mobile Stadium this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Mazuma Mobile Stadium this season.
Across all League Two games this season, Crawley Town have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Crawley Town have gone 5W 0D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Morecambe) versus 1.60 (Crawley Town). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Morecambe, 0 for Crawley Town and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Feb 2024, ended 2–1 with Morecambe winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Morecambe trading profile (79 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Crawley Town trading profile (79 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Morecambe 58% versus Crawley Town 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Morecambe 58% | Crawley Town 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Morecambe 1.07 xG and Crawley Town 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Morecambe attack 0.807 / defence 0.994 | Crawley Town attack 0.936 / defence 0.914. League average goals — home 1.448 / away 1.296. Data: 34 Morecambe games / 79 Crawley Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Morecambe 32% | Draw 29% | Crawley Town 39%. Fair-value odds: Morecambe 3.12 | Draw 3.45 | Crawley Town 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Crawley Town are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Crawley Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.28 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Morecambe 70% | Crawley Town 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Morecambe vs Crawley Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Mazuma Mobile Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 5 Mar 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Morecambe 32% | Draw 29% | Crawley Town 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Morecambe 1.07 / Crawley Town 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Morecambe attack 0.807 / def 0.994 | Crawley Town attack 0.936 / def 0.914 | league avg home 1.448 / away 1.296 • Poisson stance: Crawley Town (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Morecambe xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Crawley Town xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Morecambe vs Crawley Town kick off?
Morecambe vs Crawley Town kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 5 March 2024 at Mazuma Mobile Stadium.
What was the final score in Morecambe vs Crawley Town?
Morecambe 1 - 0 Crawley Town.
Where is Morecambe vs Crawley Town being played?
The match is being played at Mazuma Mobile Stadium.
What competition is Morecambe vs Crawley Town part of?
Morecambe vs Crawley Town is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Morecambe vs Crawley Town?
Our statistical model gives Morecambe a 32% chance of winning, Crawley Town a 39% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Crawley Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Morecambe vs Crawley Town?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Morecambe and Crawley Town will score (BTTS).
Will Morecambe vs Crawley Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Morecambe and Crawley Town?
Record (1 meetings): Morecambe 1W | Draws 0 | Crawley Town 0W.
What form are Morecambe and Crawley Town in?
Morecambe (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-D-W. Crawley Town (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Morecambe's attack rating (0.81) and Crawley Town's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.07 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Crawley Town's attack versus Morecambe's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/79 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 0-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crawley Town Win
32%
3.14
29%
3.40
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Morecambe xG
Total xG
2.28
1.21
Crawley Town xG
3.14
32%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
34%
2.91
Win to Nil
10%
10.49
13%
7.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 12.4 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.3 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Morecambe vs Crawley Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Morecambe and Crawley Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Morecambe and 1.21 for Crawley Town, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Morecambe vs Crawley Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 79 outings, Morecambe have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 24W 22D 33L record — W-D-L-D-W across the most recent five.
Crawley Town's form line: 26W 17D 36L from 79 games, 1.20 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Morecambe on 1.19 PPG, Crawley Town on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Morecambe have posted 1.47 PPG from 38 outings (14W 14D 10L).
On the road, Crawley Town have gone 8W 9D 21L from 38 away games — 0.87 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Morecambe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Morecambe are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Crawley Town are on 1.23 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 79 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Morecambe
Current Season
Crawley Town
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Morecambe and Crawley Town in coming into this match?
Morecambe have gone 24W 22D 33L in their last 79 games (1.19 PPG), while Crawley Town have gone 26W 17D 36L in their last 79 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Morecambe at home or Crawley Town away?
Morecambe's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Morecambe at home: 1.47 PPG; Crawley Town away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Morecambe
0
Draws
0
Crawley Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Morecambe and Crawley Town?
From 2 meetings on record, Morecambe have won 2, Crawley Town have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Morecambe and Crawley Town last play each other?
They last met on 5 March 2024, when Morecambe 1-0 Crawley Town.
Who has won more matches between Morecambe and Crawley Town?
Morecambe have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Morecambe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Morecambe 60%, Crawley Town 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Morecambe) and 50% (Crawley Town).
On the defensive side: Crawley Town in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Morecambe home games / Crawley Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Morecambe play Crawley Town?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Morecambe's games and 50% of Crawley Town's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Morecambe vs Crawley Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Morecambe's recent games and 50% of Crawley Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Morecambe and Crawley Town tend to score early?
Morecambe have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Crawley Town in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Morecambe defy the odds to beat Crawley Town 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Morecambe beat Crawley Town 1-0 at Mazuma Mobile Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Morecambe 1.07 xG and Crawley Town 1.21 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Crawley Town landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Morecambe attack 0.81 / defence 0.99 against Crawley Town attack 0.94 / defence 0.91, drawn from 34/79 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Morecambe 32% | Draw 29% | Crawley Town 39%, with Crawley Town to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Morecambe win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Morecambe 58%, Crawley Town 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Morecambe's trading profile (79 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Crawley Town's trading profile (79 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Morecambe 1.19 PPG, Crawley Town 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Morecambe win broke the near-deadlock. Morecambe (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Crawley Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.