Leyton Orient 0-2 Salford City – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Leyton Orient take on Salford City.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Leyton Orient host Salford City at The Breyer Group Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 12 February 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Leyton Orient stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 League Two matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Leyton Orient have posted 3W 4D 3L at The Breyer Group Stadium — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Leyton Orient are significantly better at The Breyer Group Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all League Two games this season, Salford City have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Salford City's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Salford City are 1.20 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Leyton Orient have won 0, Salford City 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Aug 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Leyton Orient in-play tendencies (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Salford City in-play tendencies (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Leyton Orient 46% versus Salford City 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Leyton Orient 36% | Salford City 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Leyton Orient 0.97 xG and Salford City 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Leyton Orient attack 0.997 / defence 0.907 | Salford City attack 0.837 / defence 0.963. League average goals — home 1.013 / away 1.103. Data: 28 Leyton Orient games / 30 Salford City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Leyton Orient 35% | Draw 37% | Salford City 28%. Fair-value odds: Leyton Orient 2.86 | Draw 2.70 | Salford City 3.57. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.81. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.81 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 28% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.81 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 27% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates corroborate: Leyton Orient 40% | Salford City 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Leyton Orient vs Salford City | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: The Breyer Group Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Feb 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Leyton Orient 35% | Draw 37% | Salford City 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 37% | xG Leyton Orient 0.97 / Salford City 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Leyton Orient attack 0.997 / def 0.907 | Salford City attack 0.837 / def 0.963 | league avg home 1.013 / away 1.103 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Leyton Orient xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Salford City xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Leyton Orient vs Salford City kick off?
Leyton Orient vs Salford City kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 12 February 2022 at The Breyer Group Stadium.
What was the final score in Leyton Orient vs Salford City?
Leyton Orient 0 - 2 Salford City.
Where is Leyton Orient vs Salford City being played?
The match is being played at The Breyer Group Stadium.
What competition is Leyton Orient vs Salford City part of?
Leyton Orient vs Salford City is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Leyton Orient vs Salford City?
Our statistical model gives Leyton Orient a 35% chance of winning, Salford City a 28% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Leyton Orient vs Salford City?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Leyton Orient and Salford City will score (BTTS).
Will Leyton Orient vs Salford City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Leyton Orient and Salford City?
Record (1 meetings): Leyton Orient 0W | Draws 1 | Salford City 0W.
What form are Leyton Orient and Salford City in?
Leyton Orient (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Salford City (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Leyton Orient's attack rating (1.00) and Salford City's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 0.97 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Salford City's attack versus Leyton Orient's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
35%
2.83
37%
2.72
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Leyton Orient xG
Total xG
1.81
0.84
Salford City xG
2.83
35%
Home win
2.72
37%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.68
63%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
38%
2.65
Win to Nil
15%
6.54
11%
9.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.4 | 13.7 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.9 | 13.3 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Leyton Orient vs Salford City?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.1%.
How many goals are Leyton Orient and Salford City expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Leyton Orient and 0.84 for Salford City, a combined total of 1.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Leyton Orient vs Salford City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Leyton Orient's recent record stands at 7W 12D 9L from 28 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-L in the last five.
Salford City, meanwhile, have gone 11W 6D 11L across 28 games — 1.39 PPG, with L-W-L-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Leyton Orient on 1.18 PPG, Salford City on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Leyton Orient have managed 6W 4D 4L from 14 games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Salford City's away record stands at 5W 2D 7L across 14 trips, a 1.21 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Leyton Orient are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Salford City are on 1.14 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Salford City in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Leyton Orient
Current Season
Salford City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Leyton Orient and Salford City in coming into this match?
Leyton Orient have gone 7W 12D 9L in their last 28 games (1.18 PPG), while Salford City have gone 11W 6D 11L in their last 28 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Leyton Orient at home or Salford City away?
Leyton Orient's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Leyton Orient at home: 1.57 PPG; Salford City away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Leyton Orient or Salford City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Leyton Orient have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Salford City in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Leyton Orient go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Leyton Orient's record when hosting Salford City specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Leyton Orient
1
Draws
1
Salford City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Leyton Orient and Salford City?
From 4 meetings on record, Leyton Orient have won 2, Salford City have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Leyton Orient and Salford City last play each other?
They last met on 7 April 2023, when Salford City 0-2 Leyton Orient.
Who has won more matches between Leyton Orient and Salford City?
Leyton Orient have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Leyton Orient see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Salford City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Leyton Orient 29%, Salford City 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Leyton Orient) and 36% (Salford City).
On the defensive side: Leyton Orient keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Salford City in 43%; Leyton Orient have failed to score in 43% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Leyton Orient home games / Salford City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Leyton Orient play Salford City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Leyton Orient's recent matches and 43% of Salford City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Leyton Orient vs Salford City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Leyton Orient's recent games and 36% of Salford City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Leyton Orient and Salford City tend to score early?
Leyton Orient have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Salford City in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Salford City cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Leyton Orient.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Salford City beat Leyton Orient 0-2 at The Breyer Group Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Leyton Orient 0.97 xG and Salford City 0.84 xG, a combined 1.81. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Leyton Orient fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Salford City outscored their 0.84 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leyton Orient attack 1.00 / defence 0.91 against Salford City attack 0.84 / defence 0.96, drawn from 28/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Leyton Orient 35% | Draw 37% | Salford City 28%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Salford City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leyton Orient 36%, Salford City 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Leyton Orient's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Salford City's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Leyton Orient 1.18 PPG, Salford City 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Salford City win broke the near-deadlock. Leyton Orient (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Salford City (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.