Gillingham 2-2 Crawley Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gillingham at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gillingham vs Crawley Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Crawley Town travel to Priestfield Stadium to take on Gillingham. The game is scheduled for Saturday 15 November 2025, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gillingham stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 League Two matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Gillingham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gillingham at Priestfield Stadium this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Priestfield Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Gillingham are significantly better at Priestfield Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all League Two games this season, Crawley Town have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Crawley Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League Two this season, Crawley Town have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Gillingham at 1.40 PPG versus Crawley Town's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Gillingham have won 2, Crawley Town 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 26 Dec 2023, ended 0–2 with Crawley Town winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Gillingham in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Crawley Town in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gillingham 46% versus Crawley Town 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gillingham 30% | Crawley Town 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gillingham 1.55 xG and Crawley Town 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gillingham attack 0.877 / defence 0.857 | Crawley Town attack 0.680 / defence 1.322. League average goals — home 1.336 / away 1.176. Crawley Town bring a strong defensive rating of 1.322 — this is suppressing Gillingham's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 61 Gillingham games / 15 Crawley Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gillingham 58% | Draw 25% | Crawley Town 16%. Fair-value odds: Gillingham 1.72 | Draw 4.00 | Crawley Town 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Gillingham (58%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Gillingham as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.23 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Gillingham 40% | Crawley Town 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gillingham vs Crawley Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Priestfield Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Nov 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gillingham 58% | Draw 25% | Crawley Town 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 39% | xG Gillingham 1.55 / Crawley Town 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Gillingham attack 0.877 / def 0.857 | Crawley Town attack 0.680 / def 1.322 | league avg home 1.336 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Gillingham (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Gillingham xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Crawley Town xG
39%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gillingham vs Crawley Town kick off?
Gillingham vs Crawley Town kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 15 November 2025 at Priestfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Gillingham vs Crawley Town?
Gillingham 2 - 2 Crawley Town.
Where is Gillingham vs Crawley Town being played?
The match is being played at Priestfield Stadium.
What competition is Gillingham vs Crawley Town part of?
Gillingham vs Crawley Town is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Gillingham vs Crawley Town?
Our statistical model gives Gillingham a 58% chance of winning, Crawley Town a 16% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Gillingham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gillingham vs Crawley Town?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Gillingham and Crawley Town will score (BTTS).
Will Gillingham vs Crawley Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gillingham and Crawley Town?
Record (4 meetings): Gillingham 2W | Draws 1 | Crawley Town 1W.
What form are Gillingham and Crawley Town in?
Gillingham (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Crawley Town (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Gillingham's attack rating (0.88) and Crawley Town's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Crawley Town's attack versus Gillingham's defence, projects 0.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.8%), 2-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gillingham Win
58%
1.72
25%
3.92
16%
6.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.8%
Home win
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Gillingham xG
Total xG
2.23
0.69
Crawley Town xG
1.72
58%
Home win
3.92
25%
Draw
6.10
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
50%
1.98
21%
4.70
Win to Nil
29%
3.41
3%
28.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 7.3 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 11.4 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.8 | 8.8 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.6 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gillingham vs Crawley Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Gillingham and Crawley Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Gillingham and 0.69 for Crawley Town, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Gillingham vs Crawley Town?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Gillingham come into this having played 61 games, going 21W 20D 20L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-W. The sample for Gillingham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Crawley Town sit at 1.00 PPG from 61 outings (16W 13D 32L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Crawley Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gillingham on 1.36 PPG, Crawley Town on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Gillingham's home form reads 14W 6D 10L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return.
Away from home, Crawley Town have taken 0.77 points per game from 30 outings (6W 5D 19L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gillingham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Gillingham are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Crawley Town are on 1.20 scored and 1.74 conceded.
Defensively: Gillingham have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gillingham
Blended
Crawley Town
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gillingham and Crawley Town in coming into this match?
Gillingham have gone 21W 20D 20L in their last 61 games (1.36 PPG), while Crawley Town have gone 16W 13D 32L in their last 61 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gillingham at home or Crawley Town away?
Gillingham's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gillingham at home: 1.60 PPG; Crawley Town away: 0.77 PPG.
Have Gillingham or Crawley Town been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gillingham have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Crawley Town in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 28 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Gillingham's record when hosting Crawley Town specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Gillingham
2
Draws
2
Crawley Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gillingham and Crawley Town?
From 6 meetings on record, Gillingham have won 2, Crawley Town have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gillingham and Crawley Town last play each other?
They last met on 28 March 2026, when Crawley Town 2-0 Gillingham.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gillingham see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gillingham 37%, Crawley Town 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Gillingham) and 63% (Crawley Town).
On the defensive side: Gillingham keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Crawley Town in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gillingham home games / Crawley Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gillingham play Crawley Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Gillingham's recent matches and 43% of Crawley Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gillingham vs Crawley Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Gillingham's recent games and 63% of Crawley Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gillingham and Crawley Town tend to score early?
Gillingham have had a goal before half-time in 47% of their recent matches, Crawley Town in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gillingham and Crawley Town share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gillingham and Crawley Town finished level at 2-2 at Priestfield Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gillingham 1.55 xG and Crawley Town 0.69 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Crawley Town outscored their 0.69 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gillingham attack 0.88 / defence 0.86 against Crawley Town attack 0.68 / defence 1.32, drawn from 61/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gillingham 58% | Draw 25% | Crawley Town 16%, with Gillingham to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gillingham 30%, Crawley Town 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gillingham's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Crawley Town's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gillingham 1.36 PPG, Crawley Town 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Gillingham (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Crawley Town (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.