Forest Green 1-1 AFC Wimbledon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AFC Wimbledon at 48% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Forest Green vs AFC Wimbledon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
AFC Wimbledon travel to The Bolt New Lawn to take on Forest Green in League Two (matchday 26). The game is scheduled for Monday 1 January 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Forest Green — last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
At home, Forest Green have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 home games (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, AFC Wimbledon stand at 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, AFC Wimbledon have gone 4W 4D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour AFC Wimbledon — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Forest Green have won 0, AFC Wimbledon 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 26 Aug 2023, ended Forest Green 1–1 AFC Wimbledon — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Forest Green in-play tendencies (last 69 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 57%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
AFC Wimbledon in-play tendencies (last 69 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 48%; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Forest Green 49% versus AFC Wimbledon 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Forest Green 52% | AFC Wimbledon 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Forest Green 0.84 xG and AFC Wimbledon 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Forest Green attack 0.733 / defence 1.283 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.820 / defence 0.758. League average goals — home 1.520 / away 1.297. Forest Green's attack rating of 0.733 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.84. AFC Wimbledon bring a tight defence (rating 0.758, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Forest Green's projected output down. Forest Green's defence rating of 1.283 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing AFC Wimbledon's projected output up. Data: built from Forest Green's last 23 games and AFC Wimbledon's last 70.
Result probabilities: Forest Green 23% | Draw 29% | AFC Wimbledon 48%. Fair-value odds: Forest Green 4.42 | Draw 3.44 | AFC Wimbledon 2.07. AFC Wimbledon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, AFC Wimbledon are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AFC Wimbledon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 62% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Forest Green 50% (last 10 home games) | AFC Wimbledon 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Forest Green vs AFC Wimbledon | Competition: League Two, matchday 26 | Venue: The Bolt New Lawn • Kick-off: Monday 1 January 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Forest Green 23% | Draw 29% | AFC Wimbledon 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Forest Green 0.84 / AFC Wimbledon 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Forest Green attack 0.733 / def 1.283 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.820 / def 0.758 | league avg home 1.520 / away 1.297 • Poisson stance: AFC Wimbledon (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Forest Green xG
Expected Goals
1.36
AFC Wimbledon xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Forest Green vs AFC Wimbledon FAQs
What time does Forest Green vs AFC Wimbledon kick off?
Forest Green vs AFC Wimbledon kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Monday 1 January 2024 at The Bolt New Lawn.
What was the final score in Forest Green vs AFC Wimbledon?
Forest Green 1 - 1 AFC Wimbledon.
Where is Forest Green vs AFC Wimbledon being played?
The match is being played at The Bolt New Lawn.
What competition is Forest Green vs AFC Wimbledon part of?
Forest Green vs AFC Wimbledon is a League Two fixture (matchday 26) (England).
Who is favourite to win Forest Green vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our statistical model gives Forest Green a 23% chance of winning, AFC Wimbledon a 48% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making AFC Wimbledon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Forest Green vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Forest Green and AFC Wimbledon will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Forest Green vs AFC Wimbledon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Forest Green's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against AFC Wimbledon's defensive record (0.76x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.84. The same calculation in reverse, AFC Wimbledon's attack versus Forest Green's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Forest Green's last 23 games and AFC Wimbledon's last 70 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.3%), 0-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AFC Wimbledon Win
23%
4.42
29%
3.44
48%
2.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Forest Green xG
Total xG
2.21
1.36
AFC Wimbledon xG
4.42
23%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.07
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
26%
3.91
43%
2.33
Win to Nil
6%
17.28
21%
4.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 15.0 | 10.2 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.7 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 5.3 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Forest Green vs AFC Wimbledon Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Forest Green vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Forest Green and AFC Wimbledon expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Forest Green and 1.36 for AFC Wimbledon, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Forest Green vs AFC Wimbledon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 69 outings, Forest Green have picked up 0.62 PPG on a 10W 13D 46L record — L-L-D-L-L across the most recent five.
AFC Wimbledon's form line: 20W 23D 26L from 69 games, 1.20 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-W.
Put side by side, AFC Wimbledon are the form team by 0.58 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Forest Green.
Venue Form
On home soil, Forest Green have posted 0.71 PPG from their last 35 home games (7W 4D 24L).
On the road, AFC Wimbledon have gone 9W 13D 13L from their last 35 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AFC Wimbledon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Forest Green are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.91 conceded per game recently; AFC Wimbledon are on 1.25 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 69 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Forest Green
Blended
AFC Wimbledon
Blended
Forest Green (Home) vs AFC Wimbledon (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Forest Green
Blended
AFC Wimbledon
Blended
❓ Forest Green vs AFC Wimbledon Form FAQs
What form are Forest Green and AFC Wimbledon in coming into this match?
Forest Green have gone 10W 13D 46L in their last 69 games (0.62 PPG), while AFC Wimbledon have gone 20W 23D 26L in their last 69 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Forest Green at home or AFC Wimbledon away?
AFC Wimbledon's away record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Forest Green at home: 0.71 PPG; AFC Wimbledon away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Forest Green or AFC Wimbledon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Forest Green have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, AFC Wimbledon in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from August 2023. All of them came in League Two. The most recent in our data was on 1 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Forest Green
2
Draws
0
AFC Wimbledon
Recent Meetings
❓ Forest Green vs AFC Wimbledon H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Forest Green and AFC Wimbledon?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Forest Green have won 0, AFC Wimbledon have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Forest Green and AFC Wimbledon last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 January 2024: Forest Green 1-1 AFC Wimbledon.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Forest Green are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
AFC Wimbledon see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Forest Green 46%, AFC Wimbledon 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Forest Green) and 49% (AFC Wimbledon).
On the defensive side: AFC Wimbledon in 40%; Forest Green have failed to score in 43% of games; AFC Wimbledon in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Forest Green home games / AFC Wimbledon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Forest Green vs AFC Wimbledon Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Forest Green and AFC Wimbledon matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Forest Green's recent matches and 49% of AFC Wimbledon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Forest Green and AFC Wimbledon matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Forest Green's recent games and 49% of AFC Wimbledon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Forest Green and AFC Wimbledon matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 86% of Forest Green's recent matches and 54% of AFC Wimbledon's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Forest Green and AFC Wimbledon share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The Bolt New Lawn, Regular Season - 26, as Forest Green and AFC Wimbledon drew 1-1 in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Forest Green 0.84 xG and AFC Wimbledon 1.36 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Forest Green attack 0.73 / defence 1.28 against AFC Wimbledon attack 0.82 / defence 0.76, drawn from 23/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Forest Green 23% | Draw 29% | AFC Wimbledon 48%, with AFC Wimbledon to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Forest Green 52%, AFC Wimbledon 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Forest Green's trading profile (69 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (69 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, AFC Wimbledon arrived the stronger side — 1.20 PPG against 0.62. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Forest Green (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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