Crewe 2-0 Notts County – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Crewe at 38% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Crewe vs Notts County encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Notts County travel to Mornflake Stadium to take on Crewe in League Two (matchday 16). The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 November 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Crewe stand at 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters, Crewe have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 2.10 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Notts County — last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Notts County's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 5D 1L (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Crewe have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Crewe, 0 for Notts County and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 24 Feb 2024, ended Crewe 3–1 Notts County — a Crewe win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Crewe trading profile (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Notts County trading profile (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crewe 49% versus Notts County 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crewe 46% | Notts County 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crewe 1.34 xG and Notts County 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crewe attack 1.089 / defence 0.924 | Notts County attack 1.107 / defence 0.979. League average goals — home 1.258 / away 1.251. Data: built from Crewe's last 60 games and Notts County's last 61.
Result probabilities: Crewe 38% | Draw 26% | Notts County 35%. Fair-value odds: Crewe 2.61 | Draw 3.81 | Notts County 2.82. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Crewe at 38% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Crewe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Crewe 20% (last 10 home games) | Notts County 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crewe vs Notts County | Competition: League Two, matchday 16 | Venue: Mornflake Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 16 November 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crewe 38% | Draw 26% | Notts County 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Crewe 1.34 / Notts County 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Crewe attack 1.089 / def 0.924 | Notts County attack 1.107 / def 0.979 | league avg home 1.258 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: Crewe (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Crewe xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Notts County xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Crewe vs Notts County FAQs
What time does Crewe vs Notts County kick off?
Crewe vs Notts County kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 16 November 2024 at Mornflake Stadium.
What was the final score in Crewe vs Notts County?
Crewe 2 - 0 Notts County.
Where is Crewe vs Notts County being played?
The match is being played at Mornflake Stadium.
What competition is Crewe vs Notts County part of?
Crewe vs Notts County is a League Two fixture (matchday 16) (England).
Who is favourite to win Crewe vs Notts County?
Our statistical model gives Crewe a 38% chance of winning, Notts County a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Crewe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crewe vs Notts County?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Crewe and Notts County will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Crewe vs Notts County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Crewe's attack rating (1.09) and Notts County's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Notts County's attack versus Crewe's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Crewe's last 60 games and Notts County's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 2-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crewe Win
38%
2.61
26%
3.81
35%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Crewe xG
Total xG
2.62
1.28
Notts County xG
2.61
38%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.82
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
11%
9.38
9%
10.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 9.3 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.5 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.4 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Crewe vs Notts County Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Crewe vs Notts County?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Crewe and Notts County expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Crewe and 1.28 for Notts County, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Crewe vs Notts County?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Crewe's recent record stands at 27W 16D 18L from 61 games, a 1.59 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-D in the last five.
Notts County, meanwhile, have gone 25W 13D 23L across 61 games — 1.44 PPG, with D-W-D-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Crewe on 1.59 PPG, Notts County on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Crewe have managed 15W 6D 9L from their last 30 home games — 1.70 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Notts County's away record stands at 9W 10D 11L across their last 30 away games, a 1.23 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Crewe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Crewe are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Notts County are on 1.84 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Notts County in 66%.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crewe
Blended
Notts County
Blended
Crewe (Home) vs Notts County (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Crewe
Blended
Notts County
Blended
❓ Crewe vs Notts County Form FAQs
What form are Crewe and Notts County in coming into this match?
Crewe have gone 27W 16D 18L in their last 61 games (1.59 PPG), while Notts County have gone 25W 13D 23L in their last 61 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crewe at home or Notts County away?
Crewe's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crewe at home: 1.70 PPG; Notts County away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Crewe or Notts County been keeping clean sheets recently?
Crewe have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Notts County in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2023. All of them came in League Two. The most recent was on 24 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Crewe's record when hosting Notts County specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Crewe
1
Draws
1
Notts County
Recent Meetings
❓ Crewe vs Notts County H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Crewe and Notts County?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Crewe have won 4, Notts County have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Crewe and Notts County last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 January 2026: Notts County 1-0 Crewe.
Who has won more matches between Crewe and Notts County?
Crewe have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Crewe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Notts County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crewe 43%, Notts County 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Crewe) and 57% (Notts County). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Crewe keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Crewe have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crewe home games / Notts County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Crewe vs Notts County Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Crewe and Notts County matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of Crewe's games and 70% of Notts County's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Crewe and Notts County matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Crewe's matches and 57% of Notts County's.
Do Crewe and Notts County matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Crewe's recent matches and 83% of Notts County's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Crewe cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Notts County.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crewe beat Notts County 2-0 at Mornflake Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crewe 1.34 xG and Notts County 1.28 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Notts County landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crewe attack 1.09 / defence 0.92 against Notts County attack 1.11 / defence 0.98, drawn from 60/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crewe 38% | Draw 26% | Notts County 35%, with Crewe to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crewe 46%, Notts County 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crewe's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Notts County's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crewe 1.59 PPG, Notts County 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crewe win broke the near-deadlock. Crewe (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Notts County (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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