Crewe 1-1 Harrogate Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Crewe (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Crewe face Harrogate Town.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 26 as Crewe welcome Harrogate Town to Alexandra Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 10 January 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Crewe — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 League Two outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W D L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Crewe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Crewe have posted 4W 3D 3L at Alexandra Stadium — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Harrogate Town stand at 0W 3D 7L from 10 League Two matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Harrogate Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Harrogate Town have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Crewe carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Crewe register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Harrogate Town in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Crewe have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 7 past contests while Harrogate Town have managed just 0 wins.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Oct 2025, ended 2–1 with Crewe winning.
The historical record gives Crewe a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Crewe trading profile (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Harrogate Town trading profile (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crewe 50% versus Harrogate Town 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Crewe 40% | Harrogate Town 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crewe 1.57 xG and Harrogate Town 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crewe attack 1.234 / defence 1.166 | Harrogate Town attack 0.775 / defence 0.987. League average goals — home 1.288 / away 1.211. Data: 70 Crewe games / 70 Harrogate Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crewe 48% | Draw 25% | Harrogate Town 26%. Fair-value odds: Crewe 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | Harrogate Town 3.85. Crewe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Crewe as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Crewe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Crewe 80% | Harrogate Town 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crewe vs Harrogate Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Alexandra Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Jan 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crewe 48% | Draw 25% | Harrogate Town 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Crewe 1.57 / Harrogate Town 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Crewe attack 1.234 / def 1.166 | Harrogate Town attack 0.775 / def 0.987 | league avg home 1.288 / away 1.211 • Poisson stance: Crewe (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Crewe xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Harrogate Town xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crewe vs Harrogate Town kick off?
Crewe vs Harrogate Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 10 January 2026 at Alexandra Stadium.
What was the final score in Crewe vs Harrogate Town?
Crewe 1 - 1 Harrogate Town.
Where is Crewe vs Harrogate Town being played?
The match is being played at Alexandra Stadium.
What competition is Crewe vs Harrogate Town part of?
Crewe vs Harrogate Town is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Crewe vs Harrogate Town?
Our statistical model gives Crewe a 48% chance of winning, Harrogate Town a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Crewe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crewe vs Harrogate Town?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Crewe and Harrogate Town will score (BTTS).
Will Crewe vs Harrogate Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crewe and Harrogate Town?
Record (7 meetings): Crewe 4W | Draws 3 | Harrogate Town 0W.
What form are Crewe and Harrogate Town in?
Crewe (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. Harrogate Town (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Crewe's attack at 1.23x the league average against Harrogate Town's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.57 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Harrogate Town's attack versus Crewe's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 70/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crewe Win
48%
2.07
25%
3.97
26%
3.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Crewe xG
Total xG
2.66
1.09
Harrogate Town xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
3.77
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
21%
4.80
Win to Nil
16%
6.18
6%
18.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 7.6 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.0 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crewe vs Harrogate Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Crewe and Harrogate Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Crewe and 1.09 for Harrogate Town, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Crewe vs Harrogate Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Crewe come into this having played 70 games, going 25W 22D 23L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-W. The sample for Crewe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Harrogate Town sit at 1.00 PPG from 70 outings (18W 16D 36L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Harrogate Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Crewe on 1.39 PPG, Harrogate Town on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Crewe's home form reads 15W 9D 11L across 35 games on their own ground, a 1.54 PPG return.
Away from home, Harrogate Town have taken 0.83 points per game from 35 outings (6W 11D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Crewe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Crewe are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Harrogate Town are on 0.87 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 70 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crewe
Blended
Harrogate Town
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crewe and Harrogate Town in coming into this match?
Crewe have gone 25W 22D 23L in their last 70 games (1.39 PPG), while Harrogate Town have gone 18W 16D 36L in their last 70 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crewe at home or Harrogate Town away?
Crewe's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crewe at home: 1.54 PPG; Harrogate Town away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 10 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Aug 2022, when Crewe won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Crewe's record when hosting Harrogate Town specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Crewe
4
Draws
0
Harrogate Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crewe and Harrogate Town?
From 8 meetings on record, Crewe have won 4, Harrogate Town have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Crewe and Harrogate Town last play each other?
They last met on 10 January 2026, when Crewe 1-1 Harrogate Town.
Who has won more matches between Crewe and Harrogate Town?
Crewe have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Crewe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Harrogate Town see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crewe 49%, Harrogate Town 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (Crewe) and 34% (Harrogate Town).
On the defensive side: Crewe have failed to score in 29% of games; Harrogate Town in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crewe home games / Harrogate Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crewe play Harrogate Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Crewe's recent matches and 46% of Harrogate Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Crewe vs Harrogate Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 49% of Crewe's recent games and 34% of Harrogate Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crewe and Harrogate Town tend to score early?
Crewe have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Harrogate Town in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Crewe and Harrogate Town share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crewe and Harrogate Town finished level at 1-1 at Alexandra Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crewe 1.57 xG and Harrogate Town 1.09 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crewe attack 1.23 / defence 1.17 against Harrogate Town attack 0.78 / defence 0.99, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crewe 48% | Draw 25% | Harrogate Town 26%, with Crewe to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crewe 40%, Harrogate Town 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crewe's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Harrogate Town's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crewe 1.39 PPG, Harrogate Town 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.