Crawley Town 2-2 Stevenage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Crawley Town at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Crawley Town vs Stevenage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
The People's Pension Stadium plays host to Crawley Town versus Stevenage in League Two, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Saturday 5 February 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Crawley Town's overall League Two record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Crawley Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at The People's Pension Stadium, Crawley Town have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Stevenage (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 League Two outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Stevenage away from home this season: 0W 4D 6L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Crawley Town 0W, Stevenage 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Jan 2022, ended 1–2 with Stevenage winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Crawley Town goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Stevenage goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 67% versus Stevenage 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 52% | Stevenage 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.30 xG and Stevenage 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 0.947 / defence 1.347 | Stevenage attack 0.535 / defence 1.348. League average goals — home 1.022 / away 1.105. Stevenage bring a strong defensive rating of 1.348 — this is suppressing Crawley Town's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 Crawley Town games / 29 Stevenage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 46% | Draw 35% | Stevenage 20%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 2.17 | Draw 2.86 | Stevenage 5.00. Crawley Town hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (35%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Crawley Town as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Crawley Town if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.10 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Crawley Town 80% | Stevenage 20%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Stevenage | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: The People's Pension Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Feb 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 46% | Draw 35% | Stevenage 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Crawley Town 1.30 / Stevenage 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 0.947 / def 1.347 | Stevenage attack 0.535 / def 1.348 | league avg home 1.022 / away 1.105 • Poisson stance: Crawley Town (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Stevenage xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crawley Town vs Stevenage kick off?
Crawley Town vs Stevenage kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 5 February 2022 at The People's Pension Stadium.
What was the final score in Crawley Town vs Stevenage?
Crawley Town 2 - 2 Stevenage.
Where is Crawley Town vs Stevenage being played?
The match is being played at The People's Pension Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Stevenage part of?
Crawley Town vs Stevenage is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Stevenage?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 46% chance of winning, Stevenage a 20% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Crawley Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Stevenage?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Crawley Town and Stevenage will score (BTTS).
Will Crawley Town vs Stevenage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Stevenage?
Record (1 meetings): Crawley Town 0W | Draws 0 | Stevenage 1W.
What form are Crawley Town and Stevenage in?
Crawley Town (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-W-D. Stevenage (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Crawley Town's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Stevenage's defensive record (1.35x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. Flip it around — Stevenage's attack (0.54x) against Crawley Town's defence (1.35x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 27/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.3%), 0-0 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crawley Town Win
46%
2.19
35%
2.89
20%
5.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
2.10
0.80
Stevenage xG
2.19
46%
Home win
2.89
35%
Draw
5.05
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
27%
3.69
Win to Nil
21%
4.87
5%
18.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.9 | 12.7 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.4 | 8.3 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Stevenage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Stevenage expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Crawley Town and 0.80 for Stevenage, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Stevenage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Crawley Town's recent record stands at 10W 6D 11L from 27 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Crawley Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stevenage, meanwhile, have gone 5W 10D 12L across 27 games — 0.93 PPG, with D-W-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Stevenage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Crawley Town by 0.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Stevenage heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Crawley Town have managed 4W 3D 5L from 12 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stevenage's away record stands at 0W 4D 8L across 12 trips, a 0.33 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.93 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Stevenage's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Crawley Town come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Crawley Town are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Stevenage are on 0.93 scored and 1.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Crawley Town have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 27 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Blended
Stevenage
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crawley Town and Stevenage in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 10W 6D 11L in their last 27 games (1.33 PPG), while Stevenage have gone 5W 10D 12L in their last 27 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Stevenage away?
Crawley Town's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 1.25 PPG; Stevenage away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since January 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Crawley Town have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Stevenage — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Crawley Town
1
Draws
4
Stevenage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Stevenage?
From 6 meetings on record, Crawley Town have won 1, Stevenage have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Stevenage last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2025, when Stevenage 3-1 Crawley Town.
Who has won more matches between Crawley Town and Stevenage?
Stevenage have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Stevenage see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crawley Town 75%, Stevenage 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Crawley Town) and 42% (Stevenage).
On the defensive side: Stevenage in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Stevenage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crawley Town play Stevenage?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Crawley Town's recent matches and 25% of Stevenage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Crawley Town vs Stevenage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Crawley Town's recent games and 42% of Stevenage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crawley Town and Stevenage tend to score early?
Crawley Town have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Stevenage in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Crawley Town and Stevenage share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crawley Town and Stevenage finished level at 2-2 at The People's Pension Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.30 xG and Stevenage 0.80 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Stevenage outscored their 0.80 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 0.95 / defence 1.35 against Stevenage attack 0.54 / defence 1.35, drawn from 27/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 46% | Draw 35% | Stevenage 20%, with Crawley Town to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 52%, Stevenage 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crawley Town's trading profile (27 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Stevenage's trading profile (27 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Crawley Town arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Stevenage (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.33 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.